sales forecast for business plans

The Last Guide to Sales Forecasting You’ll Ever Need: How-To Guides and Examples

By Kate Eby | January 26, 2020 (updated August 26, 2021)

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Sales forecasts are a critical part of your business planning. In this comprehensive guide, you’ll learn how to do them correctly, including explanations of different forecasting methods, step-by-step tutorials, and advice from experienced finance and sales leaders.

Included on this page, you'll find details on more than 20 sales forecasting techniques , information regarding how to forecast sales for new businesses and products , a step-by-step guide on how to forecast sales , and a free sales forecast template .

What Is Sales Forecasting?

When you produce a sales forecast , you are predicting what your sales or revenue will be in the future. An accurate sales forecast helps your firm make better decisions and is arguably the most important piece of your business plan. 

A sales forecast contrasts with a sales goal . The former is the realistic representation of what you believe will occur, while the latter is what you want to occur. Forecasts are never perfectly accurate, but you should be as objective as possible when creating a sales forecast. Goals, on the other hand, can be based on optimistic or motivational targets.

Because the sales forecast is critical to business planning, many different stakeholders in a company (beyond sales managers and representatives) rely on these estimates, including human resources planners, finance directors, and C-level executives. 

In this article, you’ll learn about different sales forecasting methods with varying levels of sophistication. The most basic method is called naive forecasting , which uses the prior period’s actual sales for the new period’s forecast and does not apply any adjustments for growth or inflation. Naive forecasts are used as comparative figures for more robust methods.

What Is Sales Planning?

A sales plan describes the goals, strategies, target customers, and likely hurdles for your sales effort. The sales plan defines your sales strategy and the method of execution you will use to achieve the numbers in your sales forecast.

Overview of Sales Forecasting Steps

Your sales forecasting model can ultimately become very sophisticated, but to grasp the basics, you should first gain a high-level understanding of what is involved. There are three primary steps to getting started:

• Decide which forecasting method or technique you will use. Also, determine the time period for your forecast. Later in this guide, we will review different methods of forecasting sales, including how to know which is best for your business.  
• Gather the data to plug into your forecast model. The data points will vary by method, but will almost always include your actual past sales and current growth rate.
• Pick a tool to support your forecasting effort. For learning purposes, you can start with pencil and paper, but soon after, you’ll want to take advantage of digital solutions. Common tools include spreadsheets, accounting software, and customer relationship management (CRM) or sales management solutions.

As you get going, remember not to be overly focused on complex formulas. Do regular reality checks to make sure your sales forecasts accord with common sense. Bounce forecasts off sales reps to get realistic feedback, and revise.

You will likely achieve greater accuracy if you build your forecasts based on unit sales wherever possible, because pricing can move independently from unit sales. Use data if you have it.

Benefits and Importance of Sales Forecasting

Sales forecasting helps your business by giving you data to make decisions concerning allocating resources, assigning staff, and managing cash flow and overhead. Using this data reduces your risk and supports your growth. 

Your sales forecast enables you to predict both short and long-term performance and customer demand for your product. In the short term, having a sales forecast makes it easy for you to spot when actual sales are not meeting estimates and gives you an opportunity to make corrections early in the period.

The forecast guides how much you spend on marketing and administration, and the projections generate your sales reps’ objectives. In this way, sales forecasts are an important benchmark for gauging the performance of your sales reps. 

Sales forecasts also lead to better management of inventory levels. With a good idea of how much product you will sell, you can stock enough to meet customer demand without missing any sales and without carrying more than you need. Excess inventory ties up capital and reduces profit margins. 

In the long term, sales forecasts can help you prepare for changes in your business. For example, you might see that within a few years, your company will require more manufacturing capacity to meet growing sales. To expand capacity, you may need to build a new factory, so now you can start planning how you will pay for it. Predictive sales forecasting is a critical part of your presentation if you are seeking equity capital from investors or commercial loans for expansion. 

In short, sales forecasting helps your business avoid surprises, so you aren’t making decisions in a crisis environment. Companies with trustworthy sales forecasts see a 10 percentage point  greater increase in annual revenues compared to counterparts without, according to research from the Aberdeen Group .

What Makes a Good Sales Forecast?

The most important quality for a sales forecast is accuracy. But, the benefits of accuracy must be weighed against the time, effort, and expense of the forecasting technique.

Useful sales forecasts are also easily understood and often include visual elements, such as charts, graphs, and tables, to make important trends visible. 

Ideally, you can quickly build a highly reliable sales forecast with simple, economical methods. The ultimate forecast method would automatically (i.e., without manual intervention) fetch the relevant data and make predictions using an algorithm finely tuned to your business. 

In reality, the forecasting process is more time consuming and subjective. Sales forecasts often depend on reps’ assessments of how likely their prospects are to close, and perceptions vary widely. (A conservative rep’s 60 percent probability may be understated, while another rep’s 60 percent may be overly optimistic.) 

Sales managers, who are usually responsible for forecasting, spend a lot of time factoring in these nuances and other market factors when calculating forecasts. 

Surprisingly, spending more time on forecasting does not always improve accuracy. According to research from CSO Insights, sales managers who spend 15 to 20 percent of their time producing their forecast had win rates for approximately 46.5 percent of deals. But, when they spend more than 20 percent of their time on forecasting, the win rate declined by more than two percentage points. 

An axiom of forecasting is that accuracy is highest during time periods that are close at hand and lowest during those that are far into the future. Short-term forecasts draw upon the following: deals that are already in the sales pipeline, the current economic environment, and actual market trends. So, the data underlying short-term forecasts is more reliable.

Forecasting for distant time periods requires bigger guesses about opportunities, demand, competitor activity, and product trends, so it makes sense that the forecast becomes less accurate the further into the future you go. (This concept applies to many companies, especially those that are young and growing; the concept becomes more relevant for all businesses at three years and beyond.) Bear this thought in mind when you look at your sales forecast in order to make long-term decisions.

Sales Forecasting Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative

Sales forecasting methods break down broadly into qualitative and quantitative techniques. Qualitative forecasts depend on opinions and subjective judgment, while quantitative methods use historical data and statistical modeling.

Qualitative Methods for Sales Forecasting

Sales forecasting often uses five qualitative methods. These are based on different ways of generating informed opinions about sales prospects. Creating and conducting these kinds of surveys is often expensive and time intensive. These five qualitative methods include the following: 

• Jury of Executive Opinion or Panel Method: In this method, an executive group meets, discusses sales predictions, and reaches a consensus. The advantage of this method is that the result represents the collective wisdom of your most informed people. The disadvantage is that the result may be skewed by dominant personalities or the group may spend less time reflecting.
• Delphi Method: Here, you question or survey each expert separately, then analyze and compile the results. The output is then returned to the experts, who can reconsider their responses in light of others’ views and answers. You may repeat this process multiple times to reach a consensus or a narrow range of forecasts. This process avoids the influence of groupthink and may generate a helpful diversity of viewpoints. Unfortunately, it can be time consuming.  
• Sales Force Composite Method: With this technique, you ask sales representatives to forecast sales for their territory or accounts. Sales managers and the head of sales then review these forecasts, along with the product owners. This method progressively refines the views of those closest to the customers and market, but may be distorted by any overly optimistic forecasts by sales reps. The composite method also does not take into account larger trends, such as the political or regulatory climate and product innovation. 
• Customer Surveys: With this approach, you survey your customers (or a representative sample of your customers) about their purchase plans. For mass-market consumer products, you may use market research techniques to get an idea about demand trends for your product.  
• Scenario Planning: Sales forecasters use this technique most often when they face a lot of uncertainty, such as when they are estimating sales for more than three years in the future or when a market or industry is in great flux. Under scenario planning, you brainstorm different circumstances and how they impact sales. For example, these scenarios might include what would happen to your sales if there were a recession or if new duties on your subcomponents increased prices dramatically. The goal of scenario planning is not to arrive at a single accepted forecast, but to give you the opportunity to counter-plan for the worst-case scenarios.

Quantitative Methods for Sales Forecasting

Quantitative sales forecasting methods use data and statistical formulas or models to project future sales. Here are some of the most popular quantitative methods:

• Time Series: This method uses historical data and assumes history will repeat itself, including seasonality or sales cycles. To arrive at future sales, you multiply historical sales by the growth rate. This method requires chronologically ordered data. Popular time-series techniques include moving average, exponential smoothing, ARIMA, and X11. 
• Causal: This method looks at the historical cause and effect between different variables and sales. Causal techniques allow you to factor in multiple influences, while time series models look only at past results. With causal methods, you usually try to take account of all the possible factors that could impact your sales, so the data may include internal sales results, consumer sentiment, macroeconomic trends, third-party surveys, and more. Some popular causal models are linear or multiple regression, econometric, and leading indicators.

Sales Forecasting Techniques with Examples

In reality, most businesses use a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to produce sales forecasts. Let’s look at the common ways that companies put sales forecasting into action with examples.

Intuitive Method

This forecasting method draws on sales reps’ and sales managers’ opinions about how likely an opportunity is to close, so the technique is highly subjective. Estimates from reps with a lot of experience are likely to be more accurate, and the reliability of the forecast requires reps and managers to be realistic and honest.

This method can be especially helpful if you do not have historical data or if you are assessing  new prospects early in your funnel. In these cases, a rep’s gut feeling after initial contact can be a good indicator. If you are a manager, you will review reps’ estimates with an eye for any outliers and work with those reps to make any necessary adjustments. 

Here is an example of the intuitive method in action: You manage a team of four sales reps. You go to each one and inquire about the leads they are nurturing. You ask each rep which opportunities they believe they will win in the next quarter and how much those sales will be worth. John, your strongest rep, tells you $175,000. Alice, another strong performer, says $115,000. Bob, who is in his second year at your company, reports $85,000. Jennifer, a recent college graduate, projects $100,000. You calculate the total of those forecasts and arrive at an intuitive forecast of $450,000. However, you suspect Jennifer’s forecast is unrealistic, because she is inexperienced, so you ask her more questions. Based on what you learn, you decide that only half of Jennifer’s deals are likely to close, so you reduce her contribution to $50,000 and revise your total quarterly forecast to $400,000.

Scenarios Method

Scenario forecasts are qualitative and involve you projecting sales outcomes based on a variety of assumptions. This process can also be a helpful business planning exercise, because once you identify major risks or uncertainty for your company, you can develop action plans to deal with these circumstances if they arise.

Scenario forecasts require an in-depth knowledge of your business and industry, and the quality of the forecast will vary with the expertise of the person or group who prepares the estimate.

To create a scenario forecast, think about the key factors that affect sales, external forces that could influence the outcome, and major uncertainties. Then, write a narrative and numerical description of how the scenario would play out under various combinations of these key factors, external forces, and uncertainties.

Here is an example of the scenarios method in action: Your company sells components for military vehicles. You notice that the most impactful things your sales reps do are meeting with procurement officers in the defense departments of major nations and holding factory tours and product demonstrations for them. These are your key factors. 

The external forces are the number of tenders or requests for proposals that military procurement departments announce, and the value of those items. The risk of conflict in various parts of the world, scarcity of your raw materials, and trends in budget authorizations for defense by major countries are your critical uncertainties. 

You look at how your key factors, external factors, and major uncertainties might combine. One scenario might entail the outcome if your reps increased the number of meetings and product events by 20 percent, the value of U.S. tenders launched rose by six percent, and France decreased defense spending by two percent. 

Under this scenario, you might forecast a six percent increase in unit sales resulting from the following: 

• Having more in-person sales contacts should boost sales by five percent based on past performance.
• You can increase revenue by three percent due to greater U.S. tender opportunities and your current market share.
• Major customer France will not purchase anything, reducing sales by two percent.

Sales Category Method

The category forecasting method looks at the probability that an opportunity will close and divides opportunities into groups based on this probability. The technique relies somewhat on intuition, as does the intuitive method, but the sales category method brings more structure and discipline to the process.

The categories that each company uses vary widely, but they correspond broadly to stages in the sales pipeline. These are some typical labels and definitions:

• Omitted: The deal has been lost or the prospect is no longer engaging. 
• Pipeline: The opportunity will not realistically close during the quarter.
• Possible, Best Case, Upside, or Longshot: There is a realistic possibility that the deal could close at the projected value in the quarter if everything falls into place, but this is not certain. Overall, fewer than half of the opportunities in this group end up closing in the quarter at the planned value.
• Probable or Forecast: The sales rep is confident that the deal will close at the planned value in the quarter. Most of these opportunities will come to fruition as expected.
• Commit or Confident: The salesperson is highly confident that the deal will close as expected in this quarter, and only something extraordinary and unpredictable could derail it. The probability in this category is 80 to 90 percent. Any deal that does not close as forecast should generally experience only a short, unanticipated delay, rather than a total loss.
• Closed: The deal has been completed; payment and delivery have been processed; and the sale is already counted in the quarter’s revenue. 

To compile your forecast, look at the combined value of the potential deals in the categories under three scenarios:

• Worst Case: This is the minimum value you can anticipate, based on the closed and committed deals. If you have very good historical data for your sales reps and categories and feel confident making adjustments, such as counting a portion of probable deals, you may do so, but it is important to be consistent and objective.
• Most Likely: This scenario is your most realistic forecast and looks at closed, committed, and probable deal values, again with possible adjustments based on historical results. For example, if you have tracked that only 60 percent of your probable deals tend to close in the quarter, adjust their contribution downward by 40 percent.
• Best Case: This is your most optimistic forecast and hinges on executing your sales process perfectly. You count deals in the closed, commit, probable, and possible categories, with adjustments based on past performance. The possible category, in particular, requires a downward adjustment.  

As the quarter or period progresses, you revise the forecast based on updated information. This method can quickly get cumbersome and time consuming without an analytics solution.

Here is an example of the sales category method in action: You interview your sales team and get details from the reps on each deal they are working on. You assign the opportunities to a category, then make adjustments for each scenario based on past results. For example, you see that over the past three years, only half the deals in the possible category each quarter came to fruition. Here’s what the forecast looks like:

Top-Down Sales Forecasting

In top-down sales forecasting, you start by looking at the size of your entire market, called the total addressable market (TAM), and then estimate what percentage of the market you can capture. 

This method requires access to industry and geographic market data, and sales experts say top-down forecasting is vulnerable to unrealistic objectives, because expectations of future market share are often largely conjecture.

Here is an example of top-down sales forecasting in action: You operate a new car dealership in San Diego County, California. From industry and government statistics, you learn that in 2018, 112 dealers sold approximately 36,000 new cars and light trucks in the county. You represent the top-selling brand in the market, you have a large sales force, and your dealership is located in the most populous part of the county. You estimate that you can capture eight percent of the market (2,880 vehicles). The average selling price per vehicle in the county last year was $36,000, so you forecast gross annual sales of $103.7 million. From there, you determine how many vehicles each rep must sell each month to meet that mark.

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting

Bottom-up sales forecasting works the opposite way, by starting with your individual business and its attributes and then moving outward. This method takes account of your production capacity, the potential sales for specific products, and actual trends in your customer base. Staff throughout your business participates in this kind of forecasting, and it tends to be more realistic and accurate. 

Begin by estimating how many potential customers you could have contact with in the period. This potential quantity of customers is called your share of market (SOM) or your target market . Then, think about how many of those potential customers will interact with you. Then, make an actual purchase.

Of those who do purchase, factor in how many units of your product they will buy on average and then how much revenue that represents. If you aren’t sure how much your customers will spend, you can interview a few. 

Here is an example of bottom-up sales forecasting in action: Your firm sells IT implementation services to mid-sized manufacturers in the Midwest. You have a booth at a regional trade show, and 3,000 potential customers stop by and give you their contact information. You estimate that you can engage 10 percent of those people in a sales call after the trade show and convert 10 percent of those calls into deals. That represents 30 sales. Your service packages cost an average of $250,000. So, you forecast sales of $7.5 million.

Market Build-Up Method

In the market build-up method, based on data about the industry, you estimate how many buyers there are for your product in each market or territory and how much they could potentially purchase. 

Here is an example of the market build-up method in action: Your company makes safety devices for subways and other rail transit systems. You divide the United States into markets and look at how many cities in each region have subways or rail. In the West Coast territory, you count nine. To implement your product, you need a device for each mile of rail track, so you tally how many miles of track each of those cities have. In the West Coast market, there are a total of 454 miles of track. Each device sells for $25,000, so the West Coast market would be worth a total $11.4 million. From there, you would estimate how much of that total you could realistically capture.

Historical Method

The historical sales forecasting technique is a classic example of the time-series forecasting that we discussed under quantitative methods. 

With historical models, you use past sales to forecast the future. To account for growth, inflation, or a drop in demand, you multiply past sales by your average growth rate in order to compile your forecast. 

This method has the advantage of being simple and quick, but it doesn’t account for common variables, such as an increase in the number of products you sell, growth in your sales force, or the hot, new product your competitor has introduced that is drawing away your customers.

Here is an example of the historical method in action: You are forecasting sales for March, and you see that last year your sales for the month were $48,000. Your growth rate runs about eight percent year over year. So, you arrive at a forecast of $51,840 for this March.

Opportunity Stage Method

The opportunity stage technique is popular, especially for high-value enterprise sales that require a lot of nurturing. This method entails looking at deals in your pipeline and multiplying the value of each potential sale by its probability of closing. 

To estimate the probability of closing, you look at your sales funnel and historical conversion rates from top to bottom. The further a deal progresses through the stages in your funnel or pipeline, the higher likelihood it has of closing.

The strong points of this method are that it is straightforward to calculate and easy to do with most CRM systems. 

But, opportunity-stage forecasting can be time consuming. 

Moreover, this method doesn’t account for the unique characteristics of each deal (such as a longtime repeat customer vs. a new prospect). In addition, the deal value, stage, and projected close date have to be accurate and updated. And, the age of the potential deal is not reflected. This method treats a deal progressing quickly through the stages of your pipeline the same as one that has stalled for months. 

If your sales process, products, or marketing have changed, the use of historical data may make this method unreliable.

Here is an example of the opportunity stage method in action: Say your sales pipeline comprises six stages. Based on historical data, you calculate the close probability at each stage. Then, to arrive at a forecast, you look at the potential value of the deals at each stage and multiply them by the probability.

Length-of-Sales-Cycle Method

This is another quantitative method that shares some similarities with the deal stage method. However, this model looks at the length of your average sales cycle. 

First, determine the average length in days of your sales process. This figure is also known as time to purchase or sales velocity . Add the total number of days it took to close all of the past year’s deals and divide by the number of deals. Then, calculate the probability of new deals closing in a certain period of time as a percentage of the average sales cycle length. 

With this method, the biases of individual reps are less of a factor than with the deal stage model. Also, with this technique, you can fine-tune the probabilities for different lead types. (For example, prospects referred by current customers may close in an average of 27 days, while prospects who make contact after an online search need an average of 62 days.) But, this technique requires you to know and record how and when prospects enter your pipeline, which can be time intensive.

Here is an example of the length-of-sales-cycle method in action: You review the 37 deals your company won last year and see that they took a total of 2,997 days to close. To calculate the average length of the sales cycle, you divide 2,997 by 37 and see that the average sales cycle lasted 81 days. You then look at the five deals currently in your pipeline.

Lead Scoring Method

This technique requires you to have lead scoring in place. With lead scoring, you profile your ideal customers based on attributes (like industry, size, and location) as well as behavior (such as whether they have recently raised capital or whether the contact person has requested a demonstration of your product). 

You then classify future leads based on how closely they match your ideal customer. You can label the categories with distinctions such as A, B, or C or hot, warm, or cold, or you can assign numbers up to one hundred using formulas that add and subtract points for different attributes and behaviors. (For example, “They requested a demo, which adds 15 points, but they are not in your ideal industry, which subtracts 10 points.”)  

To create your forecast, you then look at the historical close rate for leads in each category and multiply that by the value of the opportunities currently in the group. 

Here is an example of the lead scoring method in action: Your company sells textbooks for advanced math and science. Your ideal customer is a university with at least 25,0000 students that has an engineering school and is located on the east coast. These are your A prospects. B prospects have at least 10,000 students. C prospects have at least 10,000 students, but are located elsewhere in the country.

You then look at the close rates and potential deal values for each lead score. Finally, you multiply the close rate by the potential value of the deals in the category or by your average sales value.

Lead Source Method

This model forecasts future sales based on how you acquired the lead, using the behavior of previous leads as a benchmark.

For example, say your company sells a software application. Some leads come from search traffic to your website; some originate with demonstration requests at conferences, and some are referrals from existing customers. 

Look at your historical data to track the percentage of leads who converted to sales for each lead source. In addition, calculate the average value of a sale for each source. Then, by using the conversion probability and sales values, you can forecast the sales that the leads at the top of your funnel are likely to generate. 

Here is an example of the lead source method in action: Based on source, you compile your historical data and discover the following conversion rates and sales value for leads.

One advantage of this sales forecasting method is that you can project how many leads of each type you would need to generate in order to hit a target. Suppose you have a conference coming up where participants will be able to request demonstrations of your product, and you would like to win an additional $30,000 in sales from the demo leads. Based on the average lead value of $600, you know you will want to generate 50 leads who request demos at the conference. 

One drawback to lead source forecasting is that the method does not account for potential differences in the length of the sales cycle for the lead types. That makes it difficult to pinpoint the period in which the revenue will occur. Therefore, you should do a separate analysis of time to purchase in order to allocate sales to the right period.

Another challenge is that sometimes you may not be sure of the lead source. For example, suppose that another customer has recommended your product to a contact and that that contact decides to first check you out on your website. You might very well assign a lower lead value to this prospect, assuming they will behave like our web-originated leads, when, in reality, they will probably behave more like the customer referral leads. 

Lastly, remember that this method won’t account for changes in your marketing or pricing that influence conversion rates and customer behavior.

Sales by Row Method

This method is a good fit for small businesses that sell different products or services. Rather than forecasting sales for each individual product type, you project sales for categories. 

Each row in your forecast will cover different physical products (such as pick-up trucks, heavy trucks, and delivery vans) and service units (such as hours of labor or service types like replacing a faucet, unclogging a drain, or installing a toilet). 

You can employ this method to forecast units and then factor them by average prices to arrive at revenue. Or, you can look exclusively at revenue. If you sell a subscription service, you can calculate recurring revenue for each product type.

For each row, you would look at how much you sold in the same period a year earlier and then adjust for factors such as inflation, organic growth, new products, increased workforce, or special circumstances.

Here is an example of the sales by row method: You operate a combination fuel station and mini-market. Your forecast would cover the broad categories of your business, such as sales of gasoline, diesel, food, beverages, and sundries.

For March’s forecast, you take into account that the new housing development near your business, which was under construction last year, is now almost completely sold and that there are many more commuters filling up. Your gas sales have been growing by almost 15 percent year over year. Also, in March, there will be a special event at the nearby fairgrounds that could draw thousands of additional vehicles to your area. 

On the downside, a new retail complex with a full-service grocery store has opened nearby, so your sales of food and drinks have slipped. Also, increased congestion in the neighborhood has caused some long-haul truckers who used to stop for fuel to reroute.

Regression or Multivariable Analysis Method

Regression or multivariable analysis is one of the most sophisticated forecasting methods, and allows you to build a custom model combining any factors that you feel are relevant to your sales.

For regression analysis, you need accurate historical data on all the variables under consideration, expertise in statistics, and, for practical purposes, an analytics solution or application that can perform the analysis. 

Because this method incorporates a multitude of influences on your sales, the resulting forecast is the most accurate. But, the costs tend to be high because of the data collection, expertise, and technology requirements.  

Regression analysis looks at the dependent variable (the factor that you are trying to predict, in this case, the amount of future sales) and independent variables (the factors that you believe affect sales results, such as opportunity stage or lead score). 

In a simple example, you would create a chart, plotting the sales results on the Y axis and the independent variable on the X axis. This chart will reveal correlations. If you draw a line through the middle of the data points, you can calculate the degree to which the independent variable affects sales. 

This line is called the regression line , and, by calculating the slope of the line, you can use numbers to represent the relationship between the variable and sales. The equation for this is Y = a + bX. Excel and other software will perform this analysis and calculate a and b for you. In more sophisticated applications, the formula will also include a factor for error to account for the reality that other variables are also at work.

Going further, you can look at how multiple variables interplay, such as individual rep close rate, customer size, and deal stage. Making these kinds of calculations becomes increasingly difficult with simple charts and demands more advanced math knowledge. 

Remember that correlation is not the same as causation. Bear in mind that while two variables may seem closely related to each other, the reality may be more subtle. 

Here is an example of the regression method in action: You want to look at the relationship between the amount of time a prospect has progressed in your sales cycle and the probability of the deal closing. 

So, plot on a chart the probability of close for past deals when they were at various stages of your sales cycle, which lasts an average of 100 days. Deals early in the sales cycle have a low probability of closing compared to those that occur in the later stages of negotiation and contract signing on day 85 and up. (Be sure to eliminate any prospects that stall or disengage at any stage.)

By drawing a line through those points (i.e., the intersection between the sales close probability and the percentage of the average sales cycle), you can see that there is a nearly one-to-one relationship between percentage point increases in time elapsed relative to the average sales cycle and percentage point increases in the probability of closing.

This calculation becomes more complex when you consider multiple variables. Let’s say you have two sales reps working with prospects. Gloria, your best closer, is giving a product demonstration to a new Fortune 500 account. Leonard, a strong performer, whose close rate is a little lower than Gloria’s, is negotiating with a repeat customer, a mid-sized company. 

Your multivariable analysis of these situations could take into account each rep’s average close rate for an opportunity, given the following factors: the specific stage; deal size; time left in the period; probability of close for a repeat customer versus a new customer; and time to close for an enterprise customer with more than 10 people involved in decision making versus a mid-sized business with a single decision maker.

Time Horizons in Sales Forecasting

Choosing the time period for your sales forecast is an important step. Depending on your business, the purpose of your forecast, and the resources you can devote to making forecasts, the time frame you target will vary. 

A short-term forecast will help set sales rep bonus levels for next quarter, but you need a long-term forecast to decide whether you should plan to build a new factory. A startup that has been doubling revenue every year will have more difficulty making a 20-year forecast than a century-old concern in a mature industry. Here are the three time frames for forecasts: 

• Short-Term Forecasts: These cover up to a year and can include monthly or quarterly forecasts. They help set production levels, sales targets, and overhead costs.
• Medium-Term Forecasts: These range from one to four years and guide product development, workforce planning, and real estate needs.
• Long-Term Forecasts: These extend from five to 20 years and inform capital investment, capacity planning, long-range financing programs, succession planning, and workforce skill and training requirements.

Getting Started with Sales Forecasting: What You Need to Know

Regardless of the sales forecast method you use, you generally need to have certain pieces of information and conditions in place. These include the following:

• Well-Documented and Defined Sales Process: You need to understand your customer journey and have an established sequence for nurturing each prospect. Without this, you cannot predict which opportunities are getting closer to purchasing. This structure creates accountability. 
• Consensus on Pipeline Stages: Your sales team needs to have a clear and shared understanding of what you mean by lead, prospect, qualified, possible, probable, committed, and other relevant terms. 
• Definition of Success: Communicate clearly what your sales team is striving for in terms of sales quotas or goals; include these quotas and goals for each individual rep, for the team as a whole, and for conversion through each stage of your pipeline.
• Historical Data: You require benchmarks for data points, such as average time to close, conversion rates, average deal size, lifetime customer value, win-loss ratio, and seasonal sales trends. These sales metrics and KPIs are often critical pieces of your forecast.
• Current Status: Up-to-date knowledge of your pipeline is essential, including how many opportunities are at each stage and the potential value of these sales.
• Forecasting Tools: This will almost always include a CRM application and may also include financial management or accounting software, analytics solutions, and spreadsheets.

Influences and Assumptions in Sales Forecasting

Sales forecasting should not happen in a vacuum. Take into account changes in the business environment and question assumptions, such as that past growth will continue. Also, be sure to factor in your ideas about global economic trends and competitor behavior.

Here are some common factors to consider regarding your sales forecast. Many of these can have either a positive or negative influence on sales. For example, changing reps’ account assignments may reduce sales, because members of your team will have to familiarize themselves with customers that are new to them. However, sales could increase if your new hotshot gets your biggest opportunity.

• Economic Trends: Inflation, growth, consumer sentiment, risk appetite, and purchasing power
• Regulation: Trade policies such as tariffs, duties, and quotas; health, safety, and environmental rulings on products or processes; court decisions; intellectual property disputes; and competition policy
• Seasonal Trends: Cyclical demand fluctuation, production patterns, and variation in raw material availability 
• Competitor Behavior: New product innovations, pricing changes, and market entries and exits
• Business Economics: Selling prices, direct prices, unit costs, gross margins, and the impact of accrual versus cash accounting on when you can book a sale
• Staffing and Compensation: Hiring or firing new reps, changes in leadership, policies on commissions and bonuses, and training
• Territory Management: Redrawing of territories and changes in account assignments
• Products and Services: Product lifecycle, new products and services, user experience, defects, ticket resolution, changes in distribution, and market entries and exits
• Marketing: Demand generation, advertising, pricing, special campaigns, social media activity, and prospecting

Sales Forecasting for New Businesses and Products

If you are starting a new business or launching a new product, your sales forecasts are crucial because they will determine how much you can spend in order to break even. However, when dealing with a new entity, you lack the advantage of historical data, which you need for almost every forecasting technique. 

If you don’t have historical data, you can use industry benchmarks from trade publications, industry associations, and consultants. For example, if you are launching a new recipe app, look at market research on how other cooking apps have performed. 

Dining establishments can look at number of tables, hours of service, and menu prices to estimate average order amounts and table turnover. Retail outlets use square feet, foot traffic, and average selling prices to forecast sales.

If you are adding a new product to your line, you can forecast sales by looking at how your most similar existing product performed at launch. Then, you can make tweaks based on other relevant information, such as that the new product is harder to master than its predecessor, that it is a later entrant into a crowded space, or that it already has a backlog of orders before launch.

New service businesses can base forecasts on capacity, such as number of staff and service hours and how much to charge for the most popular services. Once you have this data, you can make adjustments accordingly.

Michael Barbarita, President of Next Step CFO , works as a contracted CFO to produce sales forecasts for companies. He likes to tie the sales forecast for service businesses to a metric called sales per direct labor hour , which you can calculate this by dividing sales by the working hours of people in the field performing customer work. For example, an electrical contractor would calculate the sales per direct labor hour of its electricians and multiply that figure by the number of electricians and the hours they work.  

For instance, you may decide that operating at half capacity is a good estimate for your first six months in business. Then, you may operate at three-quarters capacity for the second six months. Therefore, you would multiply maximum capacity by average revenue and then multiply that resulting figure by 0.50 and 0.75, respectively.

Quick-Start: Sales Forecasting Formulas

If you are eager to dive in and want to generate some simple sales forecasts, you can make use of basic equations. Here are a few easy ones:

• Simple Forecast with No Organic Growth: This formula assumes that this period will duplicate the prior period, except for the impact of inflation.  Revenue Prior Period) + (Revenue Prior Period x Inflation Rate) = Sales Forecast  
• Historical Plus Growth: This formula helps you reflect current trends.You look at the prior year and then factor it by your recent growth rate. (Last Year Revenue x Percentage Growth Rate) + Last Year Revenue = Sales Forecast
• Partial Year: In this method, you project the rest of the year based on historical patterns and early results. Imagine that you know your sales for the first two months of the year and that last year these months represented seven and nine percent of your sales respectively and totaled $100,000. Using the formula below, you would forecast sales of $625,00 for the year: ($100,000 x 100) ÷ 16 = $625,000. (Current Period Revenue x 100) ÷ Percent That Equivalent Period Represented Last Year = Forecast Sales
• Pipeline Formula: This formula replicates the opportunity stage method that we discussed earlier. You calculate the value of deals at each stage of your pipeline by multiplying the potential deal value by the close probability and adding up the result for each stage. (Deal Amount x Close Probability) + (Deal Amount x Close Probability) etc. = Sales Forecast

How to Make a Basic Sales Forecast Step by Step

Here are step-by-step instructions for a manually generated sales forecast:

• Pick Your Time Period: The way in which you will use your forecast determines the most appropriate time interval, whether that be monthly, quarterly, annually, or on an even longer timeline. If you are making your first forecast, estimating on a monthly or quarterly basis for the upcoming year is a good starting point. Experts suggest doing monthly estimates for the first year and then doing annual forecasts for years two through five. 
• List Products or Services: Write down the items or services that you sell. If you have a lot of them, group them into categories. For example, if you sell clothing, your rows might include shirts, pants, and shoes. Match these revenue streams to the way you organize your accounting. So, if your books look at women’s and men’s clothing separately, do the same for your sales forecast. That way, you can pair your sales forecast with information on your cost of goods sold and overhead to project profit.  
• Estimate Unit Sales: Predict how many units you will sell in the selected time period. If you have historical data, use that and then factor in assumptions about demand for the upcoming period. For example, is your business growing? Is the economy in recession? Did you launch a big promotion? Use the answers to these questions to make downward or upward adjustments to the historical figure. You can also interview some customers to get insights into their likely purchasing plans. Lastly, don’t forget to factor in seasonal fluctuations. 
• Multiply by the Selling Price: Multiply the unit sales numbers by the average selling price (ASP). Determine the ASP by analyzing historical sales and adjusting for inflation and other factors. To obtain this figure, you also need to consider discounts, free trials, and unsold inventory. 
• Repeat for Each Forecast Period: Go through the same calculation for each category and time interval. As you forecast more distant periods, your estimates are likely to be less accurate, so you may want to make a range of forecasts, such as for best, worst, and average scenarios. As time passes, add the actual values and fine-tune your forecast. For instance, you may see that for the first few months of the year, you underestimated sales by 12 percent. Therefore, you decide to increase your forecasted sales amounts in the upcoming months.

How to Forecast Sales in Excel

Here is a step-by-step guide to building your own sales forecast in Excel:

• Enter Historical Data: Open a worksheet and enter your past date data in the first column. Then, in the second column, enter the corresponding sales values. If possible, make sure you space the dates consistently (e.g., the first day of every month). 
• Create Forecast: In the date column, fill out the next date cell with the future date you are forecasting. Select the corresponding sales value cell and in the function field, type: =(FORECAST( A10, B2:B9, A2:A9)), where A10 is the future date cell, B2 to B9 are the historical sales amounts, and A2 to A9 are the historical dates. Hit enter and the forecast sales amount will appear.
• Repeat: Continue the pattern for your remaining future dates. Remember that the formula uses only known variables, so do not add forecasted amounts to the cell ranges. This function is a linear forecasting method.
• Power Up: If you have Excel 2016, you can use the forecast sheet function, which automates forecasting and adds a chart. To use this function, select both data columns, and, on the data tab, click the forecast sheet. In the create forecast worksheet box, select whether you want a line or bar chart. In the forecast end field, choose an ending date and then click create. Excel will create a new worksheet that contains both historical and forecast sales data as well as a visual representation. 

For a pre-made basic sales forecast, download this template that projects product sales with both units and sales amount.

Basic Sales Forecast Sample Template

Excel | Google Sheets | Smartsheet

For a wide range of pre-built sales forecast templates in a variety of formats, see this comprehensive collection .

How to Choose the Right Sales Forecasting Methodology

Your goal is to build the most reliable forecast possible, with the minimum amount of resources you need to be effective. To choose the method that fits best, consider these seven questions:

• Is the Time Frame Short, Medium, or Long Term? Qualitative methods are a good choice for short-term horizons, but they generally underperform quantitative methods for periods beyond a few months. Similarly, consider where you are in your business or product lifecycle. If you are ramping up or in a high-growth phase, you may be making costly investment decisions, so you need a method with a high degree of accuracy, but also relatively quick production time. When you are in a mature phase of your business, decisions about production and marketing are more routine. 
• How Much Data Do You Have? The less data you have, the more likely you will be to select a qualitative technique. If you have limited data, you will turn toward more simplistic models. A company that has collected a lot of data and has great confidence in its reliability can choose sophisticated quantitative models. 
• How Relevant Will History Be in Predicting the Future?  If your business has undergone big changes, such as launching major new products, experiencing large growth in the sales force, or introducing a different pricing structure, your past results will have less value as a guide to future performance. So, methods that diminish the weight put on historical data and qualitative techniques are a better choice.  
• In Terms of Time and Money, How Much Does It Cost to Produce the Forecast? How Does This Cost Compare to the Value of the Potential Benefits?You will need to make tradeoffs between the time and cost to build your forecast and the potential benefits, such as cost savings. Also, consider the potential cost of error. For example, suppose you are contemplating a high-cost sales-forecasting technique (one that takes a lot of data gathering, the creation of a custom model, and expensive staff and technology to produce). The forecast could allow your company to reduce the amount of inventory it holds. Weigh the value of inventory savings against the forecasting cost. If you reduce inventory and the forecast proves inaccurate, what are the potential costs of lost sales — because you did not stock adequately or because you did not cut back enough?  
• What Degree of Accuracy Do You Need?  Forecast accuracy rises with the cost and complexity of the methodology. Depending on how you will use the forecast, the size of your company, and the variability of your business, you may feel that it’s not cost effective to produce a maximum-accuracy forecast. If you are a giant global company, a fraction of a percentage point error in your sales forecast could represent many millions. So, the bigger the dollar values, the more meaningful every degree of enhanced accuracy becomes.
• How Complex Are the Factors That Will Drive the Forecast?   If your sales dynamic is straightforward — the more sunny days there are, the more beach umbrellas you sell at your beach kiosk — then building a sophisticated, AI-driven forecasting model will be overkill. “It's important not to spend time and energy developing a complex model, when a much simpler one will do the job,” says Nicholas. But when you are facing a subtle and complex interplay of variables, you need a technique that accounts for them. Suppose you have new products, changes in your marketing, and additional sales reps. A sophisticated model would allow you to forecast the net effects and also try out different scenarios in which the variables fluctuated.

Why Accuracy Is Important in Sales Forecasts

According to CSO Insights, 60 percent of forecasted deals do not close and 25 percent of sales managers are unhappy with the accuracy of their forecasts. Inaccuracy in sales forecasts causes problems for businesses and impacts performance. 

People throughout your company depend on your forecasts to make a multitude of decisions — from pay raises to real estate acquisitions. Let’s look at some of the important reasons to strive for accuracy:

• Early Warning: Your sales forecast helps you spot trouble early, like when revenues are not materializing as expected; the forecast also allows you to intervene and problem solve before this underperformance becomes a crisis.
• Decision Making: The forecast gives leaders confidence and a sound basis for deciding how much and where to spend or invest. Production planners, HR, and others will use the forecast.
• Goal Setting: You set achievable targets for sales reps when you have an accurate forecast. Goal setting prevents sales reps from getting discouraged by unrealistic expectations. Following this strategy also ensures that your commission and bonus scale are calibrated appropriately. 
• Customer Satisfaction: When you are prepared for the right level of demand, your company can improve its record of fulfilling orders on time and in full.
• Inventory Management: You will be more likely to have the right level of inventory if your sales forecasts are accurate. Making accurate predictions allows you to better manage your supply chain and order raw materials or parts in a timely fashion. You also gain more control over your pricing if you have the right amount of inventory. When you have to resort to discounting to get rid of excess inventory, your profitability suffers.

How to Improve Sales Forecast Accuracy and More Best Practices from Experts

Producing high-quality forecasts takes organizational commitment and long-term effort, and best practices will help improve accuracy.

”Sales forecasting is both an art and a science. Where companies tend to go wrong is relying too heavily on one or the other. You need a consistent process and reliable data,” says Charlene DeCesare, CEO of sales training and advisory firm Charlene Ignites .

She emphasizes five best practices:

• Ensure that the pipeline feeding the forecast is accurate. You don't need historical data to predict the future when you have a well-defined sales process.
• Everyone must use the CRM, and should enter notes and coding opportunities in a clear, consistent way. 
• Buyer behavior is a much more reliable predictor of future sales than gut feel. Challenge optimism that doesn't align with the applicable stage in the sales cycle or isn't supported by clear, mutually agreed-upon next steps.
• In general, buyer/seller behavior is the leading indicator to rely upon. Too many companies rely on results, which is actually the lagging indicator.
• Sales leadership can have a huge impact. Sales reps must be rewarded for both honesty and accuracy. Sales forecasting must be an individual, team, and company priority. 

Rob Stephens, a CPA whose firm CFO Perspective advises businesses on forecasts, adds: “A big planning mistake is spending too much of your precious time trying to find the one right scenario… Start with a range of reasonable forecasts based on solid fundamentals. For example, you may project from historical growth rates, customer indications of future sales, or projections of market growth. A company with a new product may need to extrapolate from existing products or early indications from potential customers. Use a higher-probability scenario as a beginning base scenario, but identify why the future may deviate from it.”

Common Mistakes and Pitfalls in Sales Forecasts

Sales pros say they see the same sales forecasting errors on a regular basis and that these often relate to letting the discipline of the forecasting process lapse. 

“The most common operational mistakes are basing forecasts on hope rather than evidence, ignoring repeated close date slippage, failing to take into account the historic forecast accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the salesperson concerned, and failing to hold salespeople accountable for the relative accuracy of their forecasts,” notes Bob Apollo, Founder of Inflexion-Point Strategy Partners, a sales training firm.  

“The most common cultural mistake is when sales leaders press salespeople to forecast a target number without any evidence or confidence that it will actually be achieved," he notes.

Evan Lorendo , Director of Revenue Accelerator, which advises service companies on revenue strategies, says he sees companies with monthly recurring revenue (MRR), such as software as a service (SaaS), frequently make mistakes in sales forecasting.

He gives the example of a company with an MRR product that wants to generate $120,000 in revenue a year. How much in new sales do they need each month? “Most of my clients say $10,000/month, but that is wrong. Because a client is paying on a monthly basis, a client that signs up in January is actually paying 12 times during the year. On the flip side, a client signing up in July will make six payments during the year,” he explains. 

That means there are a total of 78 potential payment configurations per year, not 12. The customer who buys in January will make 12 payments, but November’s buyer will make two. (12 + 11 + 10 + 9 + 8 + 7+ 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 78.)

“If you want to know how much you need to sell in new sales each month to hit that $120,000 goal, the answer is $1,539 ($120,000/78). That actually seems much more manageable, doesn't it? Based on poor forecasting, a miscalculation can turn off good salespeople who can't hit their quota,” he says.

KPIs for Sales Forecasting

As your sales forecasting improves, you reap bigger benefits, such as better planning and higher profits. So, you will want to assess and monitor your forecasting effort by using key performance indicators (KPIs).

Below are the main KPIs for sales forecasting. Some of them draw from statistics concepts, such as standard deviation, and computer applications and statistics guides can help you calculate them.

• Bias or Variance: This KPI tells how much the actual results deviated from the forecast over a given period of time. Calculate bias as an absolute number of dollars or units or as a percent of sales. A positive number means sales exceeded projections and a negative number indicates underperformance. Actual Units - Forecast Units = Bias
• Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): This metric describes the size of your forecast error in total units or dollars. You calculate how much the actual results deviated from the forecast average, add the deviations, and divide the result by the total number of data points.   
• Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): This is similar to MAD, but gives the forecast error as a percent of sales volume. 
• Tracking Signal: This is another expression of forecast error and looks at how the error rate varies among forecast values. Normally, you expect all forecast amounts to be wrong by about the same degree. If, from one data point to another, there is a large variation in the error rate, you need to rework your model.  Tracking Signal = Accumulated Forecast Errors ÷ Mean Absolute Deviation
• Forecast Value Added: This metric measures how much better the forecast was than simply using unadjusted historical data. If your forecasting effort got you closer to actual than the so-called naive forecast (i.e., using historical figures as your forecast), you have added positive value. You calculate this metric by comparing the MAPE of your forecast to the naive forecast.
• Linearity: This looks at how sales are paced over the course of the period. As your reps seek to meet quota, you might see a flurry of deals at the end of the quarter. Or, deals might be spread evenly across the time period. The most stable situation is a deal cadence or velocity that is constant. If expressed as a trend line, this stable situation would appear visually as a flat line. This pattern is called highly linear .

Application of Sales Forecasting

Your sales forecast obviously gives you an idea of how much you will sell in the future, but sales forecasting has other important use cases. Here are five ways you can apply your forecast to business questions:

• Sales Planning: As noted earlier, your sales plan encompasses your goals, tactics, and processes for achieving your sales forecast. As part of this plan, your sales forecast helps you decide if you need to hire more sales reps to achieve your forecast and if you need to put more energy and resources into marketing.
• Demand Planning: Demand planning is the process of forecasting how much product your customers will want to buy and making sure inventory aligns with that forecast. In ideal conditions, forecast demand and sales would be virtually the same. But, consider a scenario in which your new product becomes the hot gift of the holiday season. You forecast demand of 100,000 units (the number consumers will want to buy). A large shipment turns out to be defective, and the product is unsellable. So, you forecast sales of just 75,000 units (how much you will actually sell.)   
• Financial Planning: Your sales forecast is vital to the work of your finance department. The finance team will rely on the forecast to build a budget, manage overhead, and figure out long-term capital needs. 
• Operations Planning: The unit-sales numbers in your forecast are also important for operations planners. They will look at the production required to meet those sales and confirm that manufacturing capacity can accommodate them. They will want to know when sales are likely to rise or fall, so they can avoid excess inventory. A big increase in sales will also require operations managers to make changes in warehousing and distribution. Retailers may change the product mix at individual stores based on your sales forecast.
• Product Planning: The trends you foresee in sales will have big implications for product managers too. They will look at products that you forecast as top sellers for ideas about new products or product modifications they should introduce. A forecast of declining sales may signal it is time to discontinue or revamp a product.

Levels of Maturity in Sales Forecasting

Sales forecasts can be simply scribbled-down estimates, or they can be statistical masterpieces produced with the aid of the most sophisticated technology. The style you pursue relates in large part to your level of forecasting maturity (as well as the size and history of your business). 

Below is a description of the four levels of the sales forecasting maturity model:

• Level One: In the beginning stages of sales forecasting, the estimates are usually not very accurate and take a lot of time to produce. The forecasting process depends on reps’ best guesses, and sales managers spend a lot of time gathering these guesses by interviewing each rep. Then, they roll them up into a consolidated forecast. Inconsistent data collection and personal bias can skew the results. Sales managers use spreadsheets, which quickly become outdated, and the forecasts often reflect little more than intuition.
• Level Two: As your forecasting culture grows, you are probably still inputting data by hand, and the forecast is often inaccurate or outdated. But, a CRM solution is enabling your team to have a shared repository for contacts, sales activity, and deal status. Reps don’t see value in spending time contributing to the forecast, and quality is weak. Your CRM automatically aggregates those results, so you can start to examine trends and anomalies. But, your system is not very flexible, and forecasting remains unwieldy and resource intensive.
• Level Three: At this point, automation starts to offer radical improvements in sales forecasting. Solutions backed by artificial intelligence automatically bring together data from a multitude of sources, including email, CRM, marketing platforms, chat logs, and calendars. There is no more manual data entry, and sales managers gain increased visibility into the sales pipeline. KPIs become reliable and an important tool for monitoring performance.
• Level Four: Technology ensures sales that data is accurate and timely. AI and machine learning find patterns and correlations in your historical data, and predictive analytics offer robust forecasting. The forecasting model is continually refined. Forecast accuracy rises, and sales managers can focus more of their time on supporting reps and developing opportunities. These tools make it apparent when reps are sandbagging or being too optimistic, and accountability increases.

Advances in Sales Forecasting Methodologies

While sales forecasting has been around as long as private enterprise, the field continues to evolve, and researchers are looking at ways to improve sales forecasting methodologies. 

Indiana University Professor Douglas J. Dalrymple performed an influential study in 1987 that surveyed how businesses prepared sales forecasts. He found that qualitative and naive techniques predominated, but that early adopters were reducing errors by using computer analysis. At this time, PCs were starting to proliferate and come down in price. 

By 2008, Zhan-Li Sun and his researchers at the Institute of Textiles and Clothing at Hong Kong Polytechnic University were experimenting with an advanced AI-driven technique called extreme learning machine to see if they could improve forecasts for the volatile retail fashion industry by quantifying the influence of factors such as design on sales.  

Scholars F.L. Chen and T.Y. Ou at the National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan took this further with a 2011 study. The study documented sales forecasting advances when combining extreme learning-machine, so-called Taguchi statistical methods for manufacturing quality with novel analysis theories that work on variables with imperfect information.

Features to Look for in a Sales Forecasting Tool

Paper forecasts and Excel spreadsheets quickly become cumbersome. Sales forecasting capability is available in CRM software, sales analytics and automation platforms, and AI-driven sales technology. These capabilities often overlap among these applications.

Here are some of the features to look for when evaluating a sales forecasting tool:

• Integrations with other software, such as ERP, CRM, marketing suites, contact management, calendars, and more
• Automated collection of data and sales rep activity
• Real-time reporting
• Robust data security
• Analytics and automated scoring of deals
• Insights on most promising deals
• Scenario modeling
• Lead scoring
• Automated forecast roll-ups or summaries by category and team
• Dashboards and graphic displays of KPIs
• Benchmarking
• Customizable forecasting algorithms
• Forecast auditing and error analysis

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How to Create a Sales Forecast

11 min. read

Updated October 27, 2023

Business owners are often afraid to forecast sales. But, you shouldn’t be. Because you can successfully forecast your own business’s sales.

You don’t have to be an MBA or CPA. It’s not about some magic right answer that you don’t know. It’s not about training you don’t have. It doesn’t take spreadsheet modeling (much less econometric modeling) to estimate units and price per unit for future sales. You just have to know your own business. 

Forecasting isn’t about seeing into the future

Sales forecasting is much easier than you think and much more useful than you imagine.

I was a vice president of a market research firm for several years, doing expensive forecasts, and I saw many times that there’s nothing better than the educated guess of somebody who knows the business well. All those sophisticated techniques depend on data from the past — and the past, by itself, isn’t the best predictor of the future. You are.

It’s not about guessing the future correctly. We’re human; we don’t do that well. Instead, it’s about setting down assumptions, expectations, drivers, tracking, and management. It’s about doing your job, not having precognitive powers. 

• Successful forecasting is driven by regular reviews

What really matters is that you review and revise your forecast regularly. Spending should be tied to sales, so the forecast helps you budget and manage. You measure the value of a sales forecast like you do anything in business, by its measurable business results.

That also means you should not back off from forecasting because you have a new product, or new business, without past data. Lay out the sales drivers and interdependencies, to connect the dots, so that as you review plan-versus-actual results every month, you can easily make course corrections.

If you think sales forecasting is hard, try running a business without a forecast. That’s much harder.

Your sales forecast is also the backbone of your business plan . People measure a business and its growth by sales, and your sales forecast sets the standard for  expenses , profits, and growth. The sales forecast is almost always going to be the first set of numbers you’ll track for plan versus actual use, even if you do no other numbers.

If nothing else, just forecast your sales, track plan-versus-actual results, and make corrections — that process alone, just the sales forecast and tracking is in itself already business planning. To get started on building your forecast follow these steps.

And if you run a subscription-based business, we have a guide dedicated to building a sales forecast for that business model.

• Step 1: Set up your lines of sales

Most forecasts show several distinct lines of sales. Ideally, your sales lines match your accounting, but not necessarily in the same level of detail.   

For example, a restaurant ought not to forecast sales for each item on the menu. Instead, it forecasts breakfasts, lunches, dinners, and drinks, summarized. And a bookstore ought not to forecast sales by book, and not even by topic or author, but rather by lines of sales such as hardcover, softcover, magazines, and maybe categories (such as fiction, non-fiction, travel, etc.) if that works.

Always try to set your streams to match your accounting, so you can look at the difference between the forecast and actual sales later. This is excellent for real business planning. It makes the heart of the process, the regular review, and revision, much easier. The point is better management.

For instance, in a bicycle retail store business plan, the owner works with five lines of sales, as shown in the illustration here.  

In this sample case, the revenue includes new bikes, repair, clothing, accessories, and a service contract. The bookkeeping for this retail store tracks sales in those same five categories.

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• Step 2: Forecast line by line

There are many ways to forecast a line of sales.

The method for each row depends on the business model

Among the main methods are:.

• Unit sales : My personal favorite. Sales = units times price. You set an average price and forecast the units. And of course, you can change projected pricing over time. This is my favorite for most businesses because it gives you two factors to act on with course corrections: unit sales, or price.
• Service units : Even though services don’t sell physical units, most sell billable units, such as billable hours for lawyers and accountants, or trips for transportations services, engagements for consultants, and so forth.
• Recurring charges : Subscriptions. For each month or year, it has to forecast new signups, existing monthly charges, and cancellations. Estimates depend on both new signups and cancellations, which is often called “churn.”
• Revenue only : For those who prefer to forecast revenue by the stream as just the money, without the extra information of breaking it into units and prices.

Most sales forecast rows are simple math

For a business plan, I recommend you make your sales forecast a detailed look at the next 12 months and then broadly cover two years after that. Here’s how to approach each method of line-by-line forecasting.

Start with units if you can

For unit sales, start by forecasting units month by month, as shown here below for the new bike’s line of sales in the bicycle shop plan:

I recommend looking at the visual as you forecast the units because most of us can see trends easier when we look at the line, as shown in the illustration, rather than just the numbers. You can also see the numbers in the forecast near the bottom. The first year, fiscal 2021 in this forecast, is the sum of those months.

Estimate price assumptions

With a simple revenue-only assumption, you do one row of units as shown in the above illustration, and you are done. The units are dollars, or whatever other currency you are using in your forecast. In this example, the new bicycle product will be sold for an average of $550.00. 

That’s a simplifying assumption, taking the average price, not the detailed price for each brand or line. Garrett, the shop owner, uses his past results to determine his actual average price for the most recent year. Then he rounds that estimate and adds his own judgment and educated guess on how that will change. 

Multiply price times units

Multiplying units times the revenue per unit generates the sales forecast for this row. So for example the $18,150 shown for October of 2020 is the product of 33 units times $550 each. And the $21,450 shown for the next month is the product of 39 units times $550 each. 

Subscription models are more complicated

Lately, a lot of businesses offer their buyers subscriptions, such as monthly packages, traditional or online newspapers, software, and even streaming services. All of these give a business recurring revenues, which is a big advantage. 

For subscriptions, you normally estimate new subscriptions per month and canceled subscriptions per month, and leave a calculation for the actual subscriptions charged. That’s a more complicated method, which demands more details. 

For that, you can refer to detailed discussions on subscription forecasting in How to Forecast Sales for a Subscription Business .

• But how do you know what numbers to put into your sales forecast?

The math may be simple, yes, but this is predicting the future, and humans don’t do that well. So, don’t try to guess the future accurately for months in advance.

Instead, aim for making clear assumptions and understanding what drives your sales, such as web traffic and conversions, in one example, or the direct sales pipeline and leads, in another. Review results every month, and revise your forecast. Your educated guesses become more accurate over time.

Experience in the field is a huge advantage

In a normal ongoing business, the business owner has ample experience with past sales. They may not know accounting or technical forecasting, but they know their business. They are aware of changes in the market, their own business’s promotions, and other factors that business owners should know. They are comfortable making educated guesses.

If you don’t personally have the experience, try to find information and make guesses based on the experience of an employee,  your mentor , or others you’ve spoken within your field.

Use past results as a guide

Use results from the recent past if your business has them. Start a forecast by putting last year’s numbers into next year’s forecast, and then focus on what might be different this year from next.

Do you have new opportunities that will make sales grow? New marketing activities, promotions? Then increase the forecast. New competition, and new problems? Nobody wants to forecast decreasing sales, but if that’s likely, you need to deal with it by cutting costs or changing your focus.

Look for drivers

To forecast sales for a new restaurant, first, draw a map of tables and chairs and then estimate how many meals per mealtime at capacity, and in the beginning. It’s not a random number; it’s a matter of how many people come in.

To forecast sales for a new mobile app, you might get data from the Apple and Android mobile app stores about average downloads for different apps. A good web search might also reveal some anecdotal evidence, blog posts, and news stories, about the ramp-up of existing apps that were successful.

Get those numbers and think about how your case might be different. Maybe you drive downloads with a website, so you can predict traffic from past experience and then assume a percentage of web visitors who will download the app.

• Estimate direct costs

Direct costs are also called the cost of goods sold (COGS) and per-unit costs. Direct costs are important because they help calculate gross margin, which is used as a basis for comparison in financial benchmarks, and are an instant measure (sales less direct costs) of your underlying profitability.

For example, I know from benchmarks that an average sporting goods store makes a 34 percent gross margin. That means that they spend $66 on average to buy the goods they sell for $100.

Not all businesses have direct costs. Service businesses supposedly don’t have direct costs, so they have a gross margin of 100 percent. That may be true for some professionals like accountants and lawyers, but a lot of services do have direct costs. For example, taxis have gasoline and maintenance. So do airlines.

A normal sales forecast includes units, price per unit, sales, direct cost per unit, and direct costs. The math is simple, with the direct costs per unit related to total direct costs the same way price per unit relates to total sales.

Multiply the units projected for any time period by the unit direct costs, and that gives you total direct costs. And here too, assume this view is just a cut-out, it flows to the right. In this example, Garrett the shop owner projected the direct costs of new bikes based on the assumption of 49 percent of sales.

Given the unit forecast estimate, the calculation of units times direct costs produces the forecast shown in the illustration below for direct costs for that product. So therefore the projected direct costs for new bikes in October is $8,894, which is 49% of the projected sales for that month, $18,150.

• Never forecast in a vacuum

Never think of your sales forecast in a vacuum. It flows from the strategic action plans with their assumptions,  milestones , and metrics. Your marketing milestones affect your sales. Your business offering milestones affect your sales.

When you change milestones—and you will, because all business plans change—you should change your sales forecast to match.

• Timing matters

Your sales are supposed to refer to when the ownership changes hands (for products) or when the service is performed (for services). It isn’t a sale when it’s ordered, or promised, or even when it’s contracted.

With proper  accrual accounting , it is a sale even if it hasn’t been paid for. With so-called cash-based accounting, by the way, it isn’t a sale until it’s paid for. Accrual is better because it gives you a more accurate picture, unless you’re very small and do all your business, both buying and selling, with cash only.

I know that seems simple, but it’s surprising how many people decide to do something different. The penalty for doing things differently is that then you don’t match the standard, and the bankers, analysts, and investors can’t tell what you meant.

This goes for direct costs, too. The direct costs in your monthly  profit and loss statement  are supposed to be just the costs associated with that month’s sales. Please notice how, in the examples above, the direct costs for the sample bicycle store are linked to the actual unit sales.

• Live with your assumptions

Sales forecasting is not about accurately guessing the future. It’s about laying out your assumptions so you can manage changes effectively as sales and direct costs come out different from what you expected. Use this to adjust your sales forecast and improve your business by making course corrections to deal with what is working and what isn’t.

I believe that even if you do nothing else, by the time you use a sales forecast and review plan versus actual results every month, you are already managing with a business plan . You can’t review actual results without looking at what happened, why, and what to do next.

See why 1.2 million entrepreneurs have written their business plans with LivePlan

Tim Berry is the founder and chairman of Palo Alto Software , a co-founder of Borland International, and a recognized expert in business planning. He has an MBA from Stanford and degrees with honors from the University of Oregon and the University of Notre Dame. Today, Tim dedicates most of his time to blogging, teaching and evangelizing for business planning.

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Sales forecasting: How to create a sales forecast template (with examples)

A strong sales team is the key to success for most companies. They say a good salesperson can sell sand at the beach, but whether you’re selling products in the Caribbean or Antarctica, it all comes down to strategy. When you’re unsure if your current strategy is working, a sales forecast can help.

What is a sales forecast?

A sales forecast predicts future sales revenue using past business data. Your sales forecast can predict a number of different things, including the number of new sales for an existing product, the new customers you’ll gain, or the memberships you’ll sell in a given time period. These forecasts are then used during project planning to determine how much you should allocate towards new products and services. 

Why is sales forecasting important?

Sales forecasting helps you keep a finger on your business’s pulse. It sets the ground rules for a variety of business operations, including your sales strategy and project planning. Once you calculate your sales projections, you can use the results to assess your business health, predict cash flow, and adjust your plans accordingly.

An effective sales forecasting plan:

Predicts demand: When you have an idea of how many units you may sell, you can get a head start on production.

Helps you make smart investments: If you have future goals of expanding your business with new locations or products, knowing when you’ll have the income to do so is important. 

Contributes to goal setting: Your sales forecast can help you set goals outside of investments as well, like outshining competitors or hiring new team members.

Guides spending: Your sales forecast may be the wake-up call you need to set a budget and use cost control to reduce expenses.

Improves the sales process: You can change your current sales process based on the sales projections you’re unhappy with.

Highlights financial problems: Your sales forecast template will open your eyes to problem areas you may not have noticed otherwise. 

Helps with resource management: Do you have the resources you need to fill orders if it’s an accurate sales forecast? Your sales forecast can guide how you allocate and manage resources to hit targets.

When you have an accurate prediction of your future sales, you can use your projections to adjust your current sales process.

Sales forecasting methods

Sales forecasting is an important part of strategic business planning because it enables sales managers and teams to predict future sales and make informed decisions. But why are there multiple sales forecasting methods? Simply put, businesses vary in size, industry, and market dynamics, so no single methodology suits all.

Choosing the right sales forecasting method is more of an art than a science. It involves:

Analyzing your business size and industry

Assessing the available data and tools

Understanding your sales cycle's complexity

A few telltale signs that you've picked the correct approach include:

Improved accuracy in sales target predictions

Enhanced understanding of market trends

Better alignment with your business goals

Opportunity stage forecasting

Opportunity stage forecasting is a dynamic approach ideal for businesses using CRM systems like Salesforce. It assesses the likelihood of sales closing based on the stages of the sales pipeline. This method is particularly beneficial for sales organizations with a clearly defined sales process.

For example, a software company might use this method to forecast sales by examining the number of prospects in each stage of their funnel, from initial contact to final negotiation.

Pipeline forecasting method

The pipeline forecasting method is similar to opportunity stage forecasting but focuses more on the volume and quality of leads at each pipeline stage. It's particularly useful for businesses that rely heavily on sales forecasting tools and dashboards for decision-making.

A real estate agency could use it by examining the number of properties listed, the stage of negotiations, and the number of closings forecasted in the pipeline.

Length of sales cycle forecasting

Small businesses often prefer the length of sales cycle forecasting. It's straightforward and involves analyzing the duration of past sales cycles to predict future ones. This method is effective for businesses with consistent sales cycle lengths.

A furniture manufacturer, for instance, might use this method by analyzing the average time taken from initial customer contact to closing a sale in the past year.

Intuitive forecasting

Intuitive forecasting relies on the expertise and intuition of sales managers and their teams. It's less about spreadsheets and more about market research and understanding customer behavior. This method is often used with other, more data-driven approaches.

A boutique fashion store, for example, might use this method, relying on the owner's deep understanding of fashion trends and customer preferences.

Historical forecasting

Historical forecasting uses past performance data to predict future sales. This method is advantageous for businesses with ample historical sales data. It's less effective for new markets or rapidly changing industries.

An established book retailer could use historical data from previous years, considering seasonal trends and past marketing campaigns, to forecast next quarter's sales.

Multivariable analysis forecasting

Multivariable analysis forecasting is a more sophisticated method that's ideal for larger sales organizations. It analyzes factors like market trends, economic conditions, and marketing efforts to provide a holistic view of potential sales outcomes.

An automotive company, for example, could analyze factors like economic conditions, competitor activity, and past sales data to forecast future car sales.

How to calculate sales forecast

Sales forecasts determine how much you expect to do in sales for a given time frame. For example, let’s say you expect to sell 100 units in Q1 of fiscal year 2024. To calculate sales forecasts, you’ll use past data to predict future trends. 

When you’re first creating a forecast, it’s important to establish benchmarks that determine how much you normally sell of any given product to how many people. Compare historical sales data against sales quotas—i.e., how much you sold vs. how much you expected to sell. This type of analysis can help you set a baseline for what you expect to achieve every week, month, quarter, and so on.

For many companies, this means establishing a formula. The exact inputs will vary based on your products or services, but generally, you can use the following:

Sales forecast = Number of products you expect to sell x The value of each product

For example, if you sell SaaS products, your sales forecast might look something like this: 

SaaS FY24 Sales forecast = Number of expected subscribers x Subscription price

Ultimately, the sales forecasting process is a guess—but it’s an educated one. You’ll use the information you already have to create a data-driven forecasting model. How accurate your forecast is depends on your sales team. The sales team uses facts such as their prospects, current market conditions, and their sales pipeline. But they will also use their experience in the field to decide on final numbers for what they think will sell. Because of this, sales leaders are more likely to have better forecasting accuracy than new members of the sales team.

Sales forecast vs. sales goal

Your sales forecast is based on historical data and current market conditions. While you always hope your sales goals are attainable—and you can use data to estimate what your team is capable of—your goals might not line up directly with your forecast. This can be for a number of reasons, including wanting to create stretch goals that push your sales team beyond what they’ve done in the past or big, pie-in-the-sky goals that boost investor confidence.

How to create a sales forecast

There are different sales forecasting methods, and some are simpler than others. With the steps below, you’ll have a basic understanding of how to create a sales forecast template that you can customize to the method of your choice. 

1. Track your business data

Without details from your past sales, you won’t have anything to base your predictions on. If you don’t have past sales data, you can begin tracking sales now to create a sales forecast in the future. The data you’ll need to track includes:

Number of units sold per month

Revenue of each product by month

Number of units returned or canceled (so you can get an accurate sales calculation)

Other items you can track to make your predictions more accurate include:

Growth percentage

Number of sales representatives

Average sales cycle length

There are different ways to use these data points when forecasting sales. If you want to calculate your sales run rate, which is your projected revenue for the next year, use your revenue from the past month and multiply it by 12. Then, adjust this number based on other relevant data points, like seasonality.

Tip: The best way to track historical data is to use customer relationship management (CRM) software. When you have a CRM strategy in place, you can easily pull data into your sales forecast template and make quick projections.

2. Set your metrics

Before you perform the calculations in your sales forecast template, you need to decide what you’re measuring. The basic questions you should ask are:

What is the product or service you’re selling and forecasting for? Answering this question helps you decide what exactly you’re evaluating. For example, you can investigate future trends for a long-standing product to decide whether it’s worth continuing, or you can predict future sales for a new product. 

How far in the future do you want to make projections? You can decide to make projections for as little as six months or as much as five years in the future. The complexity of your sales forecast is up to you.

How much will you sell each product for, and how do you measure your products? Set your product’s metrics, whether they be units, hours, memberships, or something else. That way, you can calculate revenue on a price-per-unit basis.

How long is your sales cycle? Your sales cycle—also called a sales funnel—is how long it takes for you to make the average sale from beginning to end. Sales cycles are often monthly, quarterly, or yearly. Depending on the product you’re selling, your sales cycle may be unique. Steps in the sales cycle typically include:

Lead generation

Lead qualification

Initial contact

Making an offer

Negotiation

Closing the deal

Tip: You can still project customer growth versus revenue even if your company is in its early phases. If you don’t have enough historical data to use for your sales forecast template, you can use data from a company similar to yours in the market. 

3. Choose a forecasting method

While there are many forecasting methods to choose from, we’ll concentrate on two straightforward approaches to provide a clear understanding of how sales forecasting can be implemented efficiently. The top-down method starts with the total size of the market and works down, while the bottom-up method starts with your business and expands out.

Top-down method: To use the top-down method, start with the total size of the market—or total addressable market (TAM). Then, estimate how much of the market you think your business can capture. For example, if you’re in a large, oversaturated market, you may only capture 3% of the TAM. If the total addressable market is $1 billion, your projected annual sales would be $30 million. 

Bottom-up method: With the bottom-up method, you’ll estimate the total units your company will sell in a sales cycle, then multiply that number by your average cost per unit. You can expand out by adding other variables, like the number of sales reps, department expenses, or website views. The bottom-up forecasting method uses company data to project more specific results. 

You’ll need to choose one method to fill in your sales forecast template, but you can also try both methods to compare results.

Tip: The best forecasting method for you may depend on what type of business you’re running. If your company experiences little fluctuation in revenue, then the top-down forecasting method should work well. The top-down model can also work for new businesses that have little business data to work with. Bottom-up forecasting may be better for seasonal businesses or startups looking to make future budget and staffing decisions.

4. Calculate your sales forecast

You’ve already learned a basic way to calculate revenue using the top-down method. Below, you’ll see another way to estimate your projected sales revenue on an annual scale.

Divide your sales revenue for the year so far by the number of months so far to calculate your average monthly sales rate.

Multiply your average monthly sales rate by the number of months left in the year to calculate your projected sales revenue for the rest of the year.

Add your total sales revenue so far to your projected sales revenue for the rest of the year to calculate your annual sales forecast.

A more generalized way to estimate your future sales revenue for the year is to multiply your total sales revenue from the previous year.

Example: Let’s say your company sells a software application for $300 per unit and you sold 500 units from January to March. Your sales revenue so far is $150,000 ($300 per unit x 500 units sold). You’re three months into the calendar year, so your average monthly sales rate is $50,000 ($150,000 / 3 months). That means your projected sales revenue for the rest of the year is $450,000 ($50,000 x 9 months).

5. Adjust for external factors

A sales forecast predicts future revenue by making assumptions about your growth rate based on past success. But your past success is only one component of your growth rate. There are external factors outside of your control that can affect sales growth—and you should consider them if you want to make accurate projections. 

Some external factors you can adjust your calculations around include:

Inflation rate: Inflation is how much prices increase over a specific time period, and it usually fluctuates based on a country’s overall economic state. You can take your annual sales forecast and factor in inflation rate to ensure you’re not projecting a higher or lower number of sales than the economy will permit.

The competition: Is your market becoming more competitive as time goes on? For example, are you selling software during a tech boom? If so, assess whether your market share will shrink because of rising competition in the coming year(s).

Market changes: The market can shift as people change their behavior. Your audience may spend an average of six hours per day on their phones in one year. In the next year, mental health awareness may cause phone usage to drop. These changes are hard to predict, so you must stay on top of market news.

Industry changes: Industry changes happen when new products and technologies come on the market and make other products obsolete. One instance of this is the invention of AI technology.

Legislation: Although not as common, changes in legislation can affect the way companies sell their products. For example, vaping was a multi-million dollar industry until laws banned the sale of vape products to people under the age of 21. 

Seasonality: Many industries experience seasonality based on how human behavior and human needs change with the seasons. For example, people spend more time inside during the winter, so they may be on their computers more. Retail stores may also experience a jump in sales around Christmas time.

Tip: You can create a comprehensive sales plan to set goals for team members. Aside from revenue targets and training milestones, consider assigning each of these external factors to your team members so they can keep track of essential information. That way, you’ll have your bases covered on anything that may affect future sales growth. 

Sales forecast template

Below you’ll see an example of a software company’s six-month sales forecast template for two products. Product one is a software application, and product two is a software accessory. 

In this sales forecast template, the company used past sales data to fill in each month. They projected their sales would increase by 10% each month because of a 5% increase in inflation and because they gained 5% more of the market. They kept their price per unit the same as the previous year.

Putting both products in the same chart can help the company see that their lower-cost product—the software accessory—brings in more revenue than their higher-cost product. The company can then use this insight to create more low-cost products in the future.

Sales forecast examples

Sales forecasting is not a one-size-fits-all process. It varies significantly across industries and business sizes. Understanding this through practical examples can help businesses identify the most suitable forecasting method for their unique needs.

Sales forecasting example 1: E-commerce

In the e-commerce sector, where trends can shift rapidly, intuitive forecasting is often useful for making quick, informed decisions.

Scenario: An e-commerce retailer specializing in fashion accessories is planning for the upcoming festive season.

Trend analysis phase: The team spends the first week analyzing customer feedback and current fashion trends on social media, using intuitive forecasting to predict which products will be popular.

Inventory planning phase: Based on these insights, the next three weeks are dedicated to selecting and ordering inventory, focusing on products predicted to be in high demand.

Sales monitoring and adjustment: As the holiday season approaches, the team closely monitors early sales data, ready to adjust their inventory and marketing strategies based on real-time sales performance.

This approach allows the e-commerce retailer to stay agile , adapting quickly to market trends and customer preferences.

Sales forecasting example 2: Software development

For a software development company, especially one working with B2B clients, opportunity stage forecasting can help predict sales and manage the sales pipeline effectively.

Scenario: A software development company is launching a new project management tool.

Lead generation and qualification phase: In the initial month, the sales team focuses on generating leads, qualifying them, and categorizing potential clients based on their progress through the sales pipeline.

Proposal and negotiation phase: For the next two months, the team works on creating tailored proposals for high-potential leads and enters negotiation stages, using opportunity stage forecasting to predict the likelihood of deal closures.

Closure and review: In the final phase, the team aims to close deals, review the accuracy of their initial forecasts, and refine their approach based on the outcomes.

Opportunity stage forecasting enables the software company to efficiently manage its sales pipeline , focusing resources on the most promising leads and improving their chances of successful deal closures.

Pair your sales forecast with a strong sales process

A sales forecast is only one part of the larger sales picture. As your team members acquire leads and close deals, you can track them through the sales pipeline. A solid sales plan is the foundation of future success.  

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The Ultimate Guide to Sales Forecasting

Learn how to create accurate sales forecasts for your sales team or business.

FREE SALES FORECASTING TEMPLATE

Use this free guide and Excel template to start closing more deals. Easily calculate drop-off rates and learn how to increase conversion and close rates.

Updated: 07/10/23

Published: 07/10/23

Sales forecasting can play a major role in your company's success (and your own career development).

Accurate sales forecasts allow salespeople and business leaders to make smarter decisions when setting goals, hiring, budgeting, prospecting, and other revenue-impacting factors.

Although most salespeople spend a considerable amount of time forecasting each week, less than 25% of sales leaders believe those forecasts are accurate.

• What is Sales Forecasting?

Why Sales Forecasting Is Important

Factors that can impact your sales forecast.

• Sales Forecasting Methods & Examples

How to Forecast Sales

Sales forecasting template, sales forecasting.

A sales forecast is an in-depth report that predicts what a salesperson, team, or company will sell weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annually. Sales forecasts are typically created using past performance data.

Managers use reps' sales forecasts to estimate the business their team will close. Directors use team forecasts to anticipate department sales. The VP of Sales uses department forecasts to project organization sales. These reports are typically shared with company leadership, along with board members and/or stockholders.

A sales forecast is the most critical aspect of meeting quota. These forecasts allow you to spot potential issues while there's still time to mitigate them or avoid them completely. Without a sales forecast, your team could be trending below quota without being able to course correct.

Maybe your competitor has started an aggressive new discounting campaign, or your new sales compensation plan unintentionally encourages bad behavior.

Discovering these problems now — versus at the end of the month or quarter — has a huge impact.

Here are a couple of specific reasons why sales forecasting is important and some scenarios that describe the impact of each one.

• It encourages better decision-making.
• It builds morale and boosts motivation on the team.

Sales forecasts also come into play for a number of decisions, from hiring and resource management to goal-setting and budgeting.

Suppose your sales forecast predicts a 26% increase in opportunities. To make sure you're keeping up with demand, you should start recruiting. If opportunities are predicted to go down, on the other hand, it would be wise to pause your hiring efforts. Simultaneously, look at bumping up marketing spend and investing in prospecting training for your reps.

A sales forecast is a powerful motivation tool.

For example, each week you might update your quarterly sales forecast to see if your team is on track to hit its target. You could also create a forecast every day for an individual sales rep on a performance plan to make sure he's not falling behind.

One of the most important points to remember about sales forecasts: They don't need to be perfect to be valuable. Your sales forecast will often, if not always, be slightly different from your results.

Of course, wildly inaccurate results are problematic — but if you‘re using clean data and have chosen the right method (which we’ll get to), your sales forecast will help you both plan and drive growth.

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Sales Forecasting Methods [+ Examples]

Not all sales forecasting methods are created equal. Here are a few of the most common ways to forecast sales. We've also included some examples to further illustrate each sales forecasting method.

1. Opportunity Stage Forecasting Method

The opportunity stage sales forecasting method accounts for the various stages of the sales process each deal is inThe further along in the pipeline, the likelier a deal is to close.

Once you‘ve picked a reporting period—usually month, quarter, or year, depending on the length of your sales cycle and your sales team’s quota—you simply multiply each deal's potential value by the probability it will close.

After you've done this for each deal in the pipeline, add up the total to get your overall forecast.

Although it‘s relatively easy to create a sales forecast this way, the results are often inaccurate. This method doesn’t account for the age of an opportunity.

In other words, a deal that‘s been languishing in your rep’s pipeline for three months will be treated the same as one that‘s a week old — as long as their close dates are the same. You have to trust your salespeople to regularly clean up their pipelines, which isn’t always feasible.

An opportunity stage sales forecast also may rely too heavily on historical data. If you're changing your messaging, products, sales process, or any other variable, your deals will close at different percentages by stage than they have in the past.

Opportunity Stage Forecasting Example

Let‘s say you’ve established the following likely-to-close percentages based on your pipeline:

• Initial Call: 5%
• Qualified:10%
• Product Demo: 35%
• Product Trial: 60%
• Final Call: 80%
• Deal Closed: 100%

According to this forecasting model, a $1,000 deal at the Product Demo stage is 35% likely to close. The forecasted amount for this deal would be $350.

2. Length of Sales Cycle Forecasting Method

The length of the sales cycle forecasting method uses the age of individual opportunities to predict when they're likely to close.

Because this technique relies solely on objective data rather than the rep‘s feedback, you’re less likely to get a prediction that's too generous.

Suppose a salesperson books a demo with a prospect before they‘re ready. They might tell you the prospect is close to buying — but this method will calculate they’re unlikely to buy because they only started talking to the salesperson a few weeks ago.

Furthermore, this technique can encompass different sales cycles. A normal lead might take roughly six months to buy, but referrals could typically need only one month, and leads coming from trade shows may require approximately eight months. You can bucket each deal type by average sales cycle length.

To get accurate results, you‘ll need to carefully track how and when prospects enter your salespeople’s pipelines. If your CRM doesn't integrate with your marketing software as well as automatically log interactions , your reps will be spending a lot of time manually entering data.

Length of Sales Cycle Forecasting Example

Let‘s say your average sales cycle lasts six months. If your salesperson has been working an account for three months, your forecast might suggest they’re 50% likely to win the deal.

3. Intuitive Forecasting Method

Some sales managers simply ask their reps to estimate the likelihood of closing. The salesperson might say, “I'm confident they'll buy within 14 days, and the deal will be worth X.” This is intuitive sales forecasting.

On the one hand, this method factors in the opinions of the ones closest to prospects: Your salespeople. On the other, reps are naturally optimistic and often offer overly generous estimates.

There's also no scalable way to verify their assessment. To see whether a prospect is as likely to close as the salesperson says, her sales manager would need to listen to her calls, shadow her meetings, and/or read her conversations.

This method is most valuable in the very early stages of a company or product when there's close to zero historical data.

Intuitive Forecasting Example

Let‘s say you want to forecast sales for your brand new business. You’ve only been operating for three months and have no historical data. You have two salespeople on your team, so you ask them to forecast sales for the next six months based on their intuition.

Each salesperson examines the deals in their sales pipeline as well as any prospecting opportunities they have planned for the following months. Based on their analysis, they forecast $50,000 in sales for the following six months.

4. Historical Forecasting Method

A quick and dirty way to predict how much you'll sell in a month, quarter, or year is to look at the matching time period and assume your results will be equal to or greater than those results. This is historical sales forecasting.

There are a few issues with this method. First, it doesn‘t take into account seasonality. Second, it assumes that buyer demand is constant. But if anything outside of the ordinary happens, your model won’t hold up.

Ultimately, historical demand should be used as a benchmark rather than the foundation of your sales forecast.

Historical Forecasting Example

Let‘s say your team collectively sold $80,000 in monthly recurring revenue (MRR) in October. Based on this method, you’d assume they'd sell $80,000 or more in November.

You can make this prediction more sophisticated by adding your historical growth. If you consistently increase sales by 6-8% each month, a conservative estimate for November would be $84,800.

5. Multivariable Analysis Forecasting Method

The most sophisticated sales forecasting method—multivariable analysis forecasting—uses predictive analytics and incorporates several of the factors mentioned, such as average sales cycle length, probability of closing based on opportunity type, and individual rep performance.

This forecast tends to be the most accurate. However, it requires an advanced analytics solution, meaning it's not always feasible if you have a small budget.

You‘ll also need clean data—if your reps aren’t dedicated to tracking their deal progress and activities, your results will be inaccurate no matter how great your software is.

Multivariable Analysis Forecasting Example

Imagine you have two reps, each of which is working a single account. Your first rep has a meeting with Procurement scheduled for Friday, while your second rep just gave her first presentation to the buying committee.

Based on your first rep‘s win rate for this stage of the sales process, combined with the relatively large predicted deal size and the number of days left in the quarter, he’s 40% likely to close in this period. That gives you a forecast of $9,600.

Your second rep is earlier in the sales process, but the deal is smaller and she has a high close rate. She's also 40% likely to close, giving you a forecast of $6,800.

Combine those, and you'd get a quarterly sales forecast of $16,400.

6. Pipeline Forecasting Method

The pipeline sales forecasting method can take some time—maybe too much time—if you don‘t have a program in place to handle your calculations. It reviews each opportunity currently sitting in your pipeline and calculates its chances of closing based on unique company variables including the rep’s win rate and opportunity value.

This forecasting method relies on your ability to provide high-quality data. If you mess up the numbers or use imperfect data, you'll end up with forecasting that provides zero value.

Make sure your reps regularly enter accurate, timely data into their CRM to glean the most insight from this method.

Pipeline Forecasting Example

If your sales team typically closes deals worth between $5,000 and $8,000 within 60 days, all current deals in your team's pipeline would be given a high likelihood of closing.

You can then use this data to figure your monthly or quarterly forecast.

• Establish a sales process for your team.
• Set individual and team quotas.
• Invest in a CRM.
• Choose a sales forecasting method.
• Include data from other organizations such as Marketing, Product, and Finance.
• Review prior sales forecasts.
• Keep your sales team informed and accountable.

Here's a breakdown of how to get started with sales forecasting. These steps will ensure an accurate sales forecast for your business.

1. Establish a sales process for your team.

If your sales team isn‘t consistently using the same stages and steps, you won’t be able to predict the likelihood of an opportunity closing. Reference our guide to building a sales process to learn how to create a documented, structured sales process to use when converting any prospect from a lead to a customer.

Your sales process will also set standard opportunity, lead, prospect, and close definitions. Everyone needs to agree about when and how to count leads entering and exiting the funnel.

2. Set individual and team quotas.

To gauge performance, you need an objective definition of “success”. Work with your sales reps and leaders to set sales quotas . These will serve as financial baseline goals to compare alongside your sales forecasting.

3. Invest in a customer relationship management (CRM) tool.

CRMs, like the HubSpot CRM , give your sales reps a database for tracking opportunities to give you accurate close predictions. Accurate data will allow for accurate forecasting.

Even if your business is brand new, establishing a CRM and getting your reps in the habit of using one will benefit your future forecasting. (If you are brand new, check out our sales forecasting template in the next section.)

4. Choose a sales forecasting method.

Once you have your sales process, sales quota, and CRM in place, you can choose a sales forecasting method .

The method you choose will depend on a few factors, including the age of your business, the size of your sales team and pipelines, and the quality of your sales data and data tracking habits.

If your business is new or doesn't have much historical sales data, the best method for you would be intuitive forecasting .

If you're just getting started with sales forecasting and have busy sales pipelines, opportunity stage forecasting , length of sales cycle forecasting. These methods both present objective forecasting calculations, however, so if you're looking for more detailed pipeline-specific forecasting, multivariable analysis forecasting and pipeline forecasting may be feasible options.

These two work best if your team has impeccable sales data and is in the habit of keeping up with their pipeline data. Lastly, for the most consistent markets and industries, historical forecasting can be a good forecasting model.

Take a close look at your business model, sales team, data tracking, and broader industry before moving forward with a sales forecasting model.

5. Include data from other organizations such as Marketing, Product, and Finance.

While understanding past sales data is critical for creating a viable sales forecast, other organizations within your company can also provide valuable insight. Make sure you include the following organizations in your forecasting process:

• Marketing – Your marketing organization has a direct correlation to the quality of your pipeline. Sit down with your marketing team to understand their plans and strategies for the time period you're forecasting.
• Product – Is your product team working on anything new for the coming year? How do product launches factor into your overall forecast? Including this data in your analysis can help you create a more well-rounded strategy.
• Finance – The finance team at your company should be running analysis to better understand the financial health of your company as a whole. Work with financial analysts to understand how your sales forecast aligns with the financial goals of the company.
• HR – Will your future sales goals require additional headcount or employee resources? If so, connect with a business partner from your HR department to map out what that process will look like, and how it impacts your forecast.

6. Review prior sales forecasts.

How did your team perform this year? Compare the actual data you have available to the prior year's forecast and take note of any variances or discrepancies.

Are there any clear areas your sales organization under-delivered on? Were the goals set the prior year unrealistic? Did you factor in major events and seasonality? Highlight any major takeaways or lessons learned that your company's leadership should be aware of as you navigate the forecasting process.

7. Keep your sales team informed and accountable.

Regardless of which sales forecasting method you choose, keep your sales reps informed and communicate changes and decisions often. This is another good reason to invest in a CRM — it keeps your reps informed about every interaction with leads and with each other.

Gather regular feedback from your team about what‘s working and what’s not. Hold your reps accountable for their performance against your sales quotas and sales forecasts. After all, they are the closest to and most familiar with your prospects and overall sales performance as a company.

Watch out for these ten internal and external factors, for which you'll need to account in your sales forecast.

Internal Factors That Can Impact Your Sales Forecast

1. hires and fires.

When salespeople leave your company — either because they quit or were terminated — revenue will decrease unless you have a pipeline of potential hires. If a significant number of reps came on board at one time, your sales forecast should predict a big jump in business when they've ramped.

2. Policy Changes

Don't adjust your sales comp plan without adjusting your forecast. If you implement a four-month clawback on commissions, for example, revenue will decrease because your reps will only sell to best-fit prospects. However, in a quarter when far fewer customers churn, your profits will increase.

Or perhaps you say reps can‘t discount after the 15th of every month. You’ll see a spike in close rates in the first two weeks, followed by fewer sales than normal.

3. Territory Shifts

It takes time for reps to familiarize themselves with a new territory and build their pipeline, so expect your close rate to dip before picking up again (assuming you planned your new territories well).

External Factors That Can Impact Your Sales Forecast

4. competitive changes.

Unsurprisingly, what your competitors are doing will impact your win rates. If another company in the space slashes their prices, your reps may need to discount more aggressively or risk losing business. If a competitor goes out of business, on the other hand, you'll probably see increased demand.

5. Economic Conditions

When the economy is strong, buyers are more likely to invest in their businesses. When it‘s weak, the sales cycle usually takes longer and there’s a greater level of scrutiny for every purchase.

6. Market Changes

Stay on top of what‘s happening with your buyer’s customers. For example, if you sell consulting services to hotels, you'd be interested in an anticipated rise in tourism.

7. Industry Changes

If a complementary solution sees unexpectedly high demand, you‘ll probably see your sales go up too. Imagine you sell jelly. The more peanut butter people buy, the more jelly they’ll buy as well.

8. Legislative Changes

New laws and mandates can either help or hurt your business — either by creating demand for your product or making prospects reluctant to buy anything new.

9. Product Changes

Are you rolling out a highly-requested feature, introducing a new pricing model, or offering a complementary product or service? These changes can help your salespeople increase their average deal size, shorten their sales cycle, and/or win more business.

10. Seasonality

Your customers might be more likely to buy at certain times of the year. For instance, school districts typically assess new purchases in spring and decide what to buy in fall.

There's a common theme throughout these sales forecasting methods: Data.

Even the most lightweight forecasting options rely on knowing how many opportunities are in each rep's pipeline and their project's likelihood of closing.

To keep track of all these details, you can use a free sales forecasting template, such as our sales forecasting tracker .

Download this Template for Free

This tracker includes:

• A spreadsheet for tracking which deals are guaranteed, likely, potentially, and unlikely to close this month
• A monthly revenue forecast that automatically updates with the information you entered in the first spreadsheet
• A yearly goal tracker so you can monitor your progress

This sales forecasting template is ideal when you‘re just starting out. However, if your company is more established, consider using a CRM instead. A CRM will calculate all of the above on its own—so you don’t need to lift a finger.

Try HubSpot's free CRM . Not only will it keep track of your actual and predicted revenue, it automatically logs every interaction with prospects—emails, calls, and social media—making your ability to gauge the likelihood of a deal closing even more accurate.

Start Sales Forecasting Today

With a thoughtful sales forecasting strategy, you can be ready for the future — whatever it brings.

Editor's note: This post was originally written in January 2019 and has been updated for comprehensiveness.

This article was written by a human, but our team uses AI in our editorial process. Check out our full disclosure to learn more about how we use AI.

Don't forget to share this post!

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The beginner’s guide to sales forecasting

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The platform for orchestrating performance.

Learn how to create an accurate sales forecast with key features and step-by-step examples in our sales forecasting guide

Sales forecasting  is the process of estimating future revenue by predicting how much of a product or service will sell in the next week, month, quarter, or year. At its simplest, a sales forecast is a projected measure of how a market will respond to a company’s go-to-market efforts.

Whether you’re new to sales forecasting or a seasoned pro in need of a refresher, use this blog as your sales forecasting guide.

Why is sales forecasting important?

Forecasts are about the future. It’s hard to overstate how important it is for a company to produce an accurate sales forecast. Privately held companies gain confidence in their business when leaders can trust forecasts. For publicly traded companies, accurate forecasts confer credibility in the market.

Sales forecasting adds value across an organization. Finance relies on forecasts to develop budgets for capacity plans and hiring, and production uses sales forecasts to plan their cycles. Forecasts help sales operations with territory and quota planning, supply chain with material purchases and production capacity, and sales strategy with channel and partner strategies.

There are many types of sales forecasts depending on your go-to-market strategy such as:

• Opportunity forecasting
• Retail sales forecasting
• E-commerce sales forecasting
• Services forecasting
• Consumption-based forecasting
• Run-rate forecasting

These are only a few examples. Unfortunately, at many companies these methodologies stay disconnected, which can produce adverse business outcomes. If information from a sales forecast isn’t shared, for example, product marketing may create demand plans not aligned with sales quotas or sales attainment levels. This leaves a company with too much inventory, too little inventory, or inaccurate sales targets — all mistakes that hurt the bottom line. Committing to regular, quality sales forecasting can help avoid such expensive mistakes.

Close the gap between how you run your business and how you plan for it. Check out our guide for more reliable sales forecasting.

How to accurately forecast sales

To create an accurate sales forecast, follow these five steps:

Assess historical trends

Examine sales from the previous year. Break the numbers down by price, product, rep, sales period, and other relevant variables. Build those into a “sales run rate,” which is the amount of projected sales per sales period. This forms the basis of your sales forecast.

Incorporate changes

This is where the forecast gets interesting. After you have your basic sales run rate, you want to modify it according to several changes you see coming. For example:

• Pricing:  Are you changing the prices of any products? Are there competitors who may force you to modify your pricing schemes?
• Customers:  How many new customers do you anticipate landing this year? How many did you land the previous year? Have you hired new reps, gained quantifiable brand exposure, or increased the likelihood of gaining new customers?
• Promotions:  Will you be running any new promotions this year? What is the ROI on previous promotions, and how do you expect the new ones to compare?
• Channels:  Are you opening any new channels, locations, or territories?
• Product changes:  Are you introducing new products or changing your product suite? How long did it take for previous products to gain traction in the market? Do you expect new products to act similarly?

Anticipate market trends

Now is the time to project all the market events you’ve been tracking. Will you or your competitors be going public? Do you anticipate any acquisitions? Will there be legislation that changes how your product is received?

Monitor competitors

You’re likely doing this already, but take into account the products and campaigns of competitors, especially the major players in the space. Also check around to see if new competitors may be entering your market.

Include business plans

Add in all your business’s strategic plans. Are you in growth mode? What are hiring projections for the year? Are there any new markets you’re targeting or any new marketing campaigns? How might all this impact the forecast?

Once you’ve quantified these things, build them into your forecast. You want everything to be itemized, so you can understand the forecast in as granular a level as possible. Different stakeholders in the company will likely want to understand different aspects of the forecast, so it behooves you to be able to zoom in or out as far as needed.

Keys to success in sales forecasting

Improving the accuracy of your sales forecasts and the efficiency of the forecast methodology depends on multiple factors, including strong organizational coordination, automation, reliable data, and an analytics-based process. Ideally, sales forecasts should be:

• Collaborative.  Leaders should synthesize input from a variety of sales roles, business units, and regions. Frontline sales teams can be of great value here, providing a perspective on the market you hadn’t considered before. 
• Data-driven.  Predictive analytics can reduce the impact of subjectivity, which is often more backward-looking than forward-looking. Using common data definitions and baselines will foster alignment and save time. 
• Produced in real time.  Investing in the real-time capability to course-correct or reforecast allows sales leaders to quickly gain insight so they can make more informed decisions. This enables them to quickly and accurately update the forecast based on demand or market changes.
• Single-sourced with multiple views.  Generating the forecast as a single source of data gives you great visibility into rep, region, and company performance, and helps align different business functions across the organization. 
• Improved over time.  Use the insights provided by an improved sales forecasting process to create more refined future forecasts where accuracy improves over time against a set of accuracy goals.

Companies with more advanced forecasting processes and tools perform better than their peers because they more deeply understand their business drivers and can shape the outcome of a sales period before the period closes.

Top sales forecasting challenges

It can be difficult to produce a consistently accurate sales forecast. Here are some of the top sales forecasting challenges to avoid:

Accuracy and mistrust

When companies use spreadsheets for sales forecasting, they can run into issues with accuracy, which in turn creates a less trustworthy forecast.

Subjectivity

Although producing a quality sales forecast does rely to a small degree on the forecaster making good decisions about how to use the data, in general, companies rely more on judgment and less on credible predictive analytics than they should.

When a sales forecast isn’t generated in a way useful for stakeholders across the company, it becomes far less effective than it should be. A good forecast should produce relevant and understandable data for multiple teams.

Inefficiency

Sales forecasts can be especially difficult to produce when inefficiencies are built into the forecasting process. For example, when a forecast has multiple owners, or the forecast process is not clearly spelled out with a standard set of rules, there can be disputes about how the forecast will be produced.

Company forecasts across the enterprise

To forecast across the enterprise, a company needs different elements from each business function. Here’s what different functions can contribute to the sales forecast:

• Sales:   Provides the bottom-up view, using data from the CRM and PRM, building in judgment from sales leaders. Sales can manage this process through the sales operations function, using the right tools and reporting. 
• Finance:   Provides macroeconomic guidance and works with the product teams. Finance can help integrate the forecast with their financial planning software. 
• Marketing:   Provides macro-market guidance, especially in industries like telecom, retail, and CPG. Marketing can also provide finance teams with market data. 
• Supply Chain:   Provides input on supplies and production. 
• HR:  Assists with sales capacity planning and headcount forecasting based on attrition and staffing needs across every function that touches revenue such as contact centers, professional services, and retail stores.
• IT:  Assists sales forecasting by providing platforms, data, integration, and technical support.

Features to look for in sales forecasting software

Best-in-class sales forecasting software should be able to immediately improve the accuracy of your forecasts and make the forecasting process more efficient.

• Execute sales forecast simulations and outcomes.  Make changes to drivers and execute sales forecast simulations to project future impact on sales performance. 
• Analyze trends, changes, and seasonality of the sales forecast over time.  Develop time-based dashboards and key performance indicators (KPIs), such as velocity calculations, trending analytics, and seasonality fluctuations. 
• Model and analyze “what-if” scenarios . Create “what-if” scenarios and modeling to analyze the impact to the sales forecast if a specific business, economic, or competitive situation were to occur.
• Build sales forecasting calculations with familiar formulas . Apply an easy-to-use formula builder to configure sales forecast benchmarks using familiar formulas and syntax. 
• Snapshot Salesforce CRM accounts and opportunities to compare period-over-period . Compare week-over-week, month-over-month, and year-over-year changes to current periods. 
• Compare forecasts based on multiple modeling techniques.  Create sales forecasts based on qualitative, time series analysis and projection, and casual modeling techniques while determining the degree of uncertainty. 
• Forecast across geographies, products, and accounts.  Develop sales forecasts by geographic locations, product lines, and accounts, or change any of these dimensions to analyze the sales forecast at any granularity of these hierarchies.
• Analyze performance with data visualization.  With built-in dashboards, reporting, and analytics with data visualization you can analyze sales forecast and sales performance metrics to make better decisions with actionable insights.

Why use Anaplan for sales forecasting?

The Anaplan platform is uniquely configured to improve sales forecasting . By putting all relevant employees — salespeople, sales leaders, ops teams, finance, supply chain, marketing, and executives — on the same platform, companies can do the following:

• Increase accountability and ensure the sales team reports sales pipeline activity more accurately.  Identify sales deals at risk, eliminate “sandbaggers,” and reduce overcommits. 
• Standardize sales forecasting and pipeline management.  Provide a single line of sight across the entire organization so everyone has a view into revenue projections, sales projections, and operational insight. 
• Create accurate and trusted sales forecasts.  Enable functional leaders to make better and more informed decisions by providing accurate and trusted sales forecasting to all business units, including sales, finance, operations, HR, and marketing.
• Access data-driven sales benchmarking and trend analysis.  Enable sales leaders to use historical and current sales performance as a benchmark to predict future sales results. Make changes to functional plans and implement these changes across all other business models.

By adopting a  Connected Planning  approach, bringing together people, data, and processes from across the enterprise, companies can produce an accurate sales forecast that connects teams throughout the company. 

Additional sales forecasting resources

Looking for more sales forecasting guidance. Check out these insightful resources:

• White paper: The finance leader’s guide to reliable sales forecasting
• Case study: DocuSign transforms sales forecasting with the Anaplan platform
• Webinar: Increase forecast accuracy with sales planning optimization

Explore our demo series to learn more about Anaplan for sales forecasting

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How to Do a Sales Forecast for Your Business the Right Way

Posted june 8, 2021 by noah parsons.

New entrepreneurs frequently ask me for advice about forecasting their sales . These entrepreneurs are always optimistic about the future of their new company. However, when it comes to the details, most aren’t sure how to predict future sales and how much money they’re going to make.

It’s an intimidating task, looking into the future. The good thing is, none of us are fortune tellers and none of us know any more about your new business than you do. (If you do happen to be able to see into the future, please just skip the whole startup thing and go play the stock market. It’ll be much easier and make you richer!)

So, my advice is always to just take a deep breath and relax. You’re as well equipped as everyone else to put together a credible, reasonably accurate forecast. Let’s dive right in and figure it out.

What is sales forecasting?

Sales forecasting is the process of estimating future sales with the goal of better informing your decisions. A forecast is typically based on any combination of past sales data, industry benchmarks, or economic trends. It’s a method designed to help you better manage your workforce, ash flow, and any other resources that may affect revenue and sales

It’s typically easier for established businesses to create more accurate sales forecasts based on previous sales data. Newer businesses, on the other hand, will have to rely on market research, competitive benchmarks, and other forms of interest to establish a baseline for sales numbers. 

Why is sales forecasting important?

Your sales forecast is the foundation of the financial story that you are creating for your business. Once you have your sales forecast complete, you’ll be able to easily create your profit and loss statement , c ash flow statement, and balance sheet.

Sales forecasts help you set goals

But beyond just setting the stage for a complete financial forecast, your sales forecast is really all about setting goals for your company . You’re looking to answer questions like:

• What do you hope to achieve in the next month? Year? 5-years? 
• How many customers do you hope to have next month and next year?
• How much will each customer hopefully spend with your company?

Your sales forecast will help you answer all of these questions and potentially any others that involve the future of your business.

Sales forecasts inform investors

Having a solid sales forecast also provides a picture of your performance and performance milestones for potential investors. Like you, they want to be sure you have established goals and a firm trajectory for your business laid out. The more detailed, organized, and up-to-date your forecast is, the better you explain the position of your business to third parties and even employees.

How to use your sales forecast for budgeting

Your sales forecast is also your guide to how much you should be spending. Assuming you want to run a profitable business , you’ll use your sales forecast to guide what you should be spending on marketing to acquire new customers and how much you should be spending on operations and administration. 

Now, you don’t always need to be profitable, especially if you are trying to expand aggressively. But, you’ll eventually need your expenses to be less than your sales in order to turn a profit.

How detailed should your forecast be?

When you’re forecasting your sales , the first thing you should do is figure out what you should create a forecast for. You don’t want want to be too generic and just forecast sales for your entire company. On the other hand, you don’t want to create a forecast for every individual product or service that you sell.

For example, if you’re starting a restaurant, you don’t want to create forecasts for each item on the menu. Instead, you should focus on broader categories like lunch, dinner, and drinks. If you’re starting a clothing shop, forecast the key categories of clothing that you sell, like outerwear, casual wear, and so on.

You’ll probably want between three to ten categories covering the types of sales that you do. More than ten is going to be a lot of work to forecast and fewer than three probably means that you haven’t divided things up quite enough.

You really can’t get this wrong. After all, it’s just forecasting and you can always come back and adjust your categories later. Just pick a few to get started and move on.

Which forecasting model is best? Top-down or bottom-up?

Before they have much historical sales data, lots of startups make this mistake—and it’s a big one. They forecast “from the top down.” What that means is that they figure out the total size of the market ( TAM, or total addressable market ) and then decide that they will capture a small percentage of that total market.

For example, in 2015, more than 1.4 billion smartphones were sold worldwide. It’s pretty tempting for a startup to say that they’re going to get 1 percent of that total market. After all, 1 percent is such a tiny little number, it’s got to be believable, right?

The problem is that this kind of guessing is not based on any kind of reality. Sure, it looks like it might be credible on the surface, but you have to dig deeper. What’s driving those sales? How are people finding out about this new smartphone company? Of the people that find out about the new company, how many are going to buy?

So, instead of forecasting “from the top-down,” do a “bottom-up” forecast. Just like the name suggests, bottom-up forecasting is more of an educated guess, starting at the bottom and working up to a forecast.

Start by thinking about how many potential customers you might be able to make contact with; this could be through advertising, sales calls, or other marketing methods. This is your SOM (your “share of the market”), the subset of your 1 percent of the market that you will realistically reach—particularly in the first few years of your business. This is your target market .

Of the people you can reach, how many do you think you’ll be able to bring in the door or get onto your website? And finally, of the people that come in the door, get on the phone, or visit your site, how many will buy?

Here’s an example:

• 10,000 people see my company’s ad online
• 1,000 people click from the ad to my website
• 100 people end up making a purchase

Obviously, these are all nice round numbers, but it should give you an idea of how bottom-up forecasting works.

The last step of the bottom-up forecasting method is to think about the average amount that each of those 100 people in our example ends up spending. On average, do they spend $20? $100? It’s O.K. to guess here, and the best way to refine your guess is to go out and talk to your potential customers and interview them. You’ll be surprised how accurate a number you can get with a few simple interviews.

How to create a sales forecast

Keep in mind that your sales forecast is an estimate of the number of goods and services you believe you can sell over a period of time. This will also include the cost to produce and sell those goods and services, as well as the estimated profit you’ll come away with.

We’ll dive into specific methods, assumptions, and questions you’ll need to ask in order to build a viable sales forecast. But to start, here are the general steps you’ll need to take to create a sales forecast:

• List out the goods and services you sell
• Estimate how much of each you expect to sell
• Define the unit price or dollar value of each good or service sold
• Multiply the number sold by the price
• Determine how much it will cost to produce and sell each good or service
• Multiply this cost by the estimated sales volume
• Subtract the total cost from the total sales

This is a super basic rundown of what is included in your sales forecast to give you an idea of what to expect. For example, you may find the need to aggregate similar items into unified categories, if you sell a large variety of items. And if at all possible, try to keep your forecasted items grouped similarly to how they appear on your accounting statements to make updates easier.

Check out this video for a quick overview of how to forecast sales:

Now let’s dive into some specific elements of your forecast you’ll need to define ahead of time.

Should you forecast in units or dollars?

Let’s start by talking about “unit” sales.

A “unit” is simply a stand-in for whatever it is that you are selling. A single lunch at a restaurant would be a unit. An hour of consulting work is also a unit. The word “unit” is just a generic way to talk about whatever it is that you are selling.

Now that’s out of the way, let’s talk about why you should forecast by units.

Units help you think about the number of products, hours, meals, and so on, that you are selling. It’s easier to think about sales this way rather than to think just in dollars (or yen, or pounds, or rand, etc.).

With a dollar-based forecast, you are only thinking about the total amount of money that you’ll make in a given month, rather than the details of the number of units that you are selling and the average price you are selling each unit for.

To forecast by units, you predict how many units you’re going to sell each month—using the bottom-up method of course. Then, you figure out what the average price is going to be for each unit. Multiply those two numbers together and you have the total sales you plan on making each month.

For example, if you plan on selling 1,000 units at $20 each, you’ll make $20,000.

When you forecast by units, you have a couple of different variables to play with: What if I’m able to sell more units? What if I raise or lower my prices?

Also, there’s another benefit: At the end of a month of sales, I can look back at my forecast and see how I did compared to the forecast in greater detail. Did I meet my goals because I sold more units? Or did I sell for a higher price than I thought I would? This level of detail helps you guide your business and grow it moving forward.

Sales forecast assumptions

One thing to remember is that your sales forecast is built on assumptions. You’re not predicting the future, but aggregating information to help define your future outlook. These assumptions are always changing, meaning that you’ll need to have a pulse on the following:  

Market conditions

Having a general understanding of the macro effects on your business can help you better predict overall growth. A growing or shrinking market can either provide a low or high ceiling for potential sales increases. So, you need to understand how your business can react to any changes.

What does the broader market look like? Is the economy slowing or growing? Is the industry you operate in seeing an influx of competition? Maybe there’s a labor or material shortage? Are there new customers you now have access to?

Products and services

You may find yourself making regular changes to your products and services. This can be sales factors that impact the customer, or production factors that impact the overall cost. 

Are you making any changes or updates to current offerings? Are you launching a new product or service that compliments or disrupts your existing sales? Are you adjusting prices or sales channels? Are you able to decrease the cost of production? Or are expenses rising due to material, labor, or other production costs?

Seasonality

Depending on what you’re selling, you may find dips or increases in sales at specific times during the year. This seasonality may have to do with the weather, holidays, product/feature releases, or a number of other predictable factors. 

If you have been operating for a while, you can likely look at your accounting data to identify any trends. If you’re a new business look to your competitors to see how they act during specific times of the year to help you identify these trends earlier on.

Marketing efforts

How much you spend on marketing, and even your messaging may have an impact on your overall sales. Make sure that you connect any performance changes to marketing efforts that may affect your performance.

Are you launching a new marketing campaign? Are you spending more or less on advertising? Are you adjusting your targeting for digital ads? Are you branching out or removing specific marketing channels from your overall strategy?

Regulatory changes

You may find that specific laws or regulations directly impact your industry. It’s difficult to anticipate what legislation will provide a negative or positive impact, and just how often this type of regulatory change may occur. The best thing you can do is keep your ear to the ground, and be ready to adjust expenses or sales when any changes appear to make traction.

How far forward should you forecast?

I recommend that you forecast monthly for 12 months into the future and then just develop an annual sales forecast for another three to five years.

The further your forecast into the future, the less you’re going to know and the less benefit it’s going to have for you. After all, the world is going to change, your business is going to change, and you’ll be updating your forecast to reflect those changes.

12 months from now is far enough into the future to guess. You’ll have to update your forecasts regularly with actual performance to help keep them accurate. 

And don’t forget, all forecasts are wrong—and that’s O.K. Your forecast is just your best guess at what’s going to happen. As you learn more about your business and your customers, you can change and adjust your forecast. It’s not set in stone.

Why using visuals will make forecasting easier

My final word of advice is to make sure that you graph your monthly sales with a chart.

A chart will make it easy to see how your sales might dip during a slow period of the year and then grow again during your peak season. A chart will also highlight potentially unreasonable guesses at your sales growth. If for example, you show a big jump in sales from one month to the next, you should be able to back this up with a strategy that’s going to deliver those sales.

Adjust your forecasts based on actual results

Your sales forecast isn’t done when you start sharing it with lenders and investors. Instead, smart businesses use their sales forecast to measure their progress and ensure that they’re on the right track. Their sales forecast becomes a live forecast . An up-to-date management tool that helps them run their business better.

The easiest way to convert your sales forecast into a management tool is to have a monthly financial review meeting where you look at your business’s finances. You shouldn’t just look at your accounting system, though. You should compare the numbers from your accounting software to your forecast and see if you’re on track. 

Are you exceeding your goals? Or maybe you’re falling a little bit short. Either way, knowing if you’re meeting your goals or not will help you determine if you need to make some shifts in strategy. This way, your business numbers drive your strategy.

Forecasting is easier with LivePlan

Tools like LivePlan can help with this. LivePlan uses a smart dashboard to automatically compare your forecast to your numbers from your accounting system—no cutting and pasting or complicated spreadsheets required. And with LivePlan’s LiveForecast feature , you can update the forecasts within your Profit and Loss Statement, with the push of a button. 

This allows you to spend less time updating and more time analyzing performance to make better decisions. In fact, the LiveForecast feature allows you to expand the details of your performance and identify the variance in performance within your statements. You’ll know your current cash position and the impact on projected year-end totals at a glance. It provides you with enough information to then explore the dashboard with questions and potential steps in mind.

Sales forecasting isn’t as difficult as you think

Just remember that sales forecasting doesn’t have to be hard. Anyone can do it and you, as an entrepreneur, are the most qualified to do it for your business. You know your customers, and you know your market, so you can forecast your sales.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published in March 2016, and was updated for 2021.

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Sales | Templates

9 Free Sales Forecast Template Options for Small Business

Published March 7, 2023

Published Mar 7, 2023

REVIEWED BY: Jess Pingrey

WRITTEN BY: Jillian Ilao

This article is part of a larger series on Sales Management .

• 1 Simple Sales Forecast Template
• 2 Long-term Sales Forecast Template
• 3 Budget Sales Forecast Template
• 4 Month-to-month Sales Forecast Template
• 5 Individual Product Sales Forecast Template
• 6 Multi-product Sales Forecast Template
• 7 Retail Sales Forecast Template
• 8 Subscription-based Sales Forecast Template
• 9 B2B Lead Sales Forecast Template
• 10 CRMs with Built-in Sales Forecasting
• 11 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
• 12 Bottom Line

Using a sales forecast, business owners can create realistic projections about incoming revenue and business performance based on their current data and how they have performed in the past. Sales forecasts may cover weekly, monthly, annual, and multi-annual projections, and can be done using Google Sheets or Excel templates, as well as through customer relationship management (CRM) software.

We’ve compiled nine free sales projection templates you can download. Each downloadable file contains an example forecast you can use as a reference. We also included a blank template you can copy and fill in with your own sales data.

Did you know? Sales forecasts create projections you can use for things like goal setting, performance measurement, budgeting, projecting growth, obtaining financing, and attracting investors. This is why it is important to use software tools or a CRM system that gives you realistic, data-driven forecasts.

1. Simple Sales Forecast Template

Our free simple sales forecast template will help you get started with sales estimates to plan and grow your business. You can modify this multi-year projection sheet in either Google Sheets or Excel. It can also generate future revenue estimates based on units sold, pipeline growth percentages, lead conversion rates, and your product pricing. This gives you an idea of how much your business can grow sales-wise in the next few years.

Sales projection template for multiple years

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FREE Sales Forecasting Template - One-Year

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FREE Sales Forecasting Template - Multi-Year

2. Long-term Sales Projection Forecast

Part of creating a sales plan is forecasting long-term revenue goals and sales projections, then laying out the strategies and tactics you’ll use to hit your performance goals. Long-term sales projection templates usually provide three- to five-year projections. These templates are accessible in both Excel and Google Sheets.

Long-term sales prediction templates are best for businesses looking to scale and want insights about how much working capital they can expect to be able to tap into for growth initiatives. This type of sales projection template is also often required when applying for commercial loans or through other channels such as outside investors or crowdfunding.

Three-year forecast template

Projection of units sold and gross profit from a three-year forecast template

Three-year projection of units sold

FREE 3-Year Forecast Template

FREE 5-Year Forecast Template

3. Budget Sales Projection Template

A budget sales forecast template shows expense estimates in relation to revenue, allowing you to calculate how much you can spend during a specified period. Budget templates will enable you to enter income projections and available cash to indicate your spending capabilities for that time frame.

This type of template is best for new and growing businesses trying to figure out their future available expenditures. Additionally, businesses interested in making a large asset purchase, such as a company vehicle, piece of equipment, or commercial real estate, can use this template to see how much of the asset can be self-financed.

Budget forecast template example

Budget forecast template for services example

FREE Budget Sales Forecast Template

4. Month-to-Month Sales Forecast Template

The month-to-month (or monthly) sales projection template shows sales projections for a year divided into monthly increments. This type of revenue forecast template makes it easier to estimate your incoming revenue. This is because you can break down your pricing model, such as the average number of units sold, on a monthly rather than an annual basis.

This monthly sales projection example is best for seasonal businesses that experience significant revenue fluctuations in some months compared to others. It’s also appropriate for businesses that want to view rolling 12-month projections as a key performance indicator (KPI). You can also use it to project one-year sales estimates before implementing major campaigns or initiatives, such as a growth strategy.

Month-to-month forecast template example

FREE Month-to-Month Forecast Template

5. Individual Product Sales Forecast Template

An individual product sales projection template can be used by businesses that sell one product or service or for projecting sales of a new (or any single) product or service. This forecast indicates how you expect the product to perform based on units sold and the price per unit monthly.

An individual product forecast template benefits businesses that sell products through a storefront or ecommerce medium. It helps businesses that are adding a new product to their arsenal in estimating sales exclusively for that product. It is also recommended for companies that need to track individual performance for the most popular or profitable products.

Individual product forecast template example

FREE Individual Product Forecast Template

6. Multi-product Sales Forecast Template

Use this revenue projection template to generate sales projections if your business sells multiple products. Through this type of template, you can compare the estimated performance of specific products by tracking the units sold and the price per unit. In turn, this will yield a total sales revenue estimate.

The multi-product forecasting template is best for retail or wholesale businesses selling various products. You can also use it to project the revenue of multiple product categories. Here, each “item” represents a category rather than an individual product, and the price per unit is calculated in aggregate.

Multi-product sales forecast template example

FREE Multi-product Forecast Template

7. Retail Sales Forecast Template

A retail sales projection template forecasts revenue for brick-and-mortar stores since it includes data related to foot traffic. The retail sales template calculates projected revenue by year based on foot traffic, the percentage of foot traffic that enters the store, and the scale of conversions or those who make a purchase. Since it has a field for “other revenue,” it can be used by retail stores selling online.

This business forecast template is mostly designed for brick-and-mortar retail businesses. However, a combination of ecommerce and brick-and-mortar businesses, as well as ecommerce operations, can also use this forecast template. The estimated customers passing store data fields can be replaced with website traffic to convert this sales forecast Excel sheet into an ecommerce sales forecasting template.

Retail forecast template example

FREE Retail Forecast Template

8. Subscription-based Sales Forecasting Template

Businesses relying on recurring revenue from sign-ups or contract renewals should use the subscription-based sales prediction spreadsheet. Enter data into the visitor and sign-up fields to show the visitor-to-sign-up conversion rate. Then, enter the number of new customers to show the percentage of sign-ups that convert to paying customers.

This business projection template also helps you track customer churn. It calculates your churn and retention rate based on the number of paying customers at the end of the period compared to the number at the beginning, plus the number of new customers added. Knowing your churn rate is essential since a high or increasing rate of customer turnover could indicate problems with your organization or its products or services.

How to Calculate Churn Rate:

To manually calculate churn rate, divide the number of lost customers by the total customers at the start of the time period, then multiply the result by 100. For example, if your business had 200 customers at the beginning of January and lost 12 customers by the end, you would divide 12 by 200. The answer is 0.06. Then, multiply that by 100, giving you a 6% monthly churn rate.

Churn Rate Calculator

Manual calculation of monthly customer churn rate

The fields of this template can be altered for use by contract renewal businesses like insurance agencies, information technology (IT) companies, and payroll processors. For example, subscribers can be replaced with “leads,” and new subscribers can be replaced with “presentations,” “free trials,” or “demos.” Then, change the churn rate to “non-renewed contracts” to estimate new and recurring business revenue year-to-year.

Subscription-based forecast template example

FREE Subscription-based Forecast Template

9. B2B Lead Sales Forecast Template

A business-to-business (B2B) lead forecast template estimates sales revenue from current deal opportunities in the sales pipeline through business leads. Businesses can use estimated deal values and the percent chance of closing those deals to obtain a sales projection.

This revenue projection template is best for B2B organizations, aka businesses selling to other businesses or organizations, rather than business-to-consumer (B2C) organizations. It can also be used for direct sales prospecting activities and for businesses that submit business proposals in response to solicitation requests.

FREE B2B Lead Forecast Template

CRMs With Built-in Sales Forecasting Features

Sales forecast sample templates are easy to modify. However, customer relationship management (CRM) systems generally offer more robust tools for managing revenue opportunities that can be converted into sales forecasts. They are valuable tools for providing sales predictions on premade charts through the data collected in the system. Below are examples of CRM platforms that could double as great sales forecasting software :

• HubSpot CRM

HubSpot CRM can instantly create revenue projections or automatically produce these reports for you monthly or quarterly at no additional cost, saving you time and helping your business stay on track.

Users can easily generate sales prediction reports on HubSpot with their historical data. (Source: HubSpot )

Starting price: Free for unlimited users or $45 per month (annual billing) for two users

Visit HubSpot

Pipedrive can take information such as potential deal value and probability of closing for a lead or opportunity to provide sales estimates in highly customizable templates.

Pipedrive weighted deal forecasting (Source: Pipedrive )

Starting price: $14.90 per user, per month (annual billing)

Visit Pipedrive

Zoho CRM provides sales forecasting through its native integration with Zoho Analytics, which analyzes and visualizes the data. Users can customize their forecasts by viewing them on different visual channels, including line, bar, and scatter charts.

Zoho Analytics sales prediction (Source: Zoho )

Starting price: Free for three users or $14 per user, per month (annual billing)

Providing the right tools for your sales team to organize leads, communicate with prospects, and analyze sales data is crucial for streamlining a sales operation, one of many responsibilities of a sales manager. Other insights for managing your sales team can be found in our ultimate guide to sales management .

Visit Zoho CRM

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why is sales forecasting essential.

Sales forecasting provides a clear picture of your anticipated sales performance based on the number of opportunities in your pipeline and the industry that your business operates in. Having visibility will help you plan your business correctly—especially when the forecast is downward, and you need to scout for new opportunities to meet your sales targets.

What is a sales forecast template?

A sales forecast template is a predesigned spreadsheet that allows businesses to project their future sales revenue for a specific period. It is typically based on historical sales data figures and market trends. It also includes various factors that may potentially affect future sales performance, such as new product launches, seasonality, economic conditions, and changes in consumer behavior.

Bottom Line

Business forecast spreadsheets are available in both Excel and Google Sheets templates as well as other premade templates you can download, customize, and use. You may also take advantage of CRM features that organize, estimate, and visualize your company’s sales information, including sales predictions.

A CRM can save sales reps time in making projections as well as optimize your sales pipeline to generate leads and close more deals. We highly recommend CRMs such as HubSpot CRM , Pipedrive , and Zoho CRM , which all provide excellent sales forecasting features on top of robust sales management and lead nurturing tools.

About the Author

Jillian Ilao

Jill is a sales and customer service expert at Fit Small Business. Prior to joining the company, she has worked and produced marketing content for various small businesses and entrepreneurs from different markets, including Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Singapore. She has extensive writing experience and has covered topics on business, lifestyle, finance, education, and technology.

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Plan Projections

ideas to numbers .. simple financial projections

Home > Financial Projections > Sales Forecast in a Business Plan

Sales Forecast in a Business Plan

The sales forecast sometimes referred to as the revenue forecast or revenue projection, is one of the most crucial set of numbers used in the business plan. Many of the numbers developed later in the financial projections such as inventory levels, staff costs, cash flow, funding requirements, and ultimately the business valuation, depend on the numbers used in the sales forecast.

Most sales forecasts will be wrong. Investors are not looking to see whether you can predict the future (you can’t), they are looking for you to demonstrate that you understand the issues that will impact on your forecast and to show that even in the worst case scenario, your business can survive.

Sales Forecast for New Business

A bottom up sales forecast should take into account many factors including the following:

Competitor Comparisons

If possible, start the sales forecast by looking at how others in the same industry (competitors) have performed over the past few years by obtaining copies of their published annual accounts. This will show at the very least whether the market for your product is growing or declining, and if the business is of a similar scale to your intended business, will show you the level of sales achievable, and how fast the sales can grow.

So for example, if you plan to open a retail outlet, monitor the number of customers passing, entering, and purchasing goods at a similar retail premises over say a period of a week. Using these estimates, and estimates of the average sale value per customer from sources such as trade magazines, it is possible to forecast the weekly sales for a typical retail outlet at that location.

If trade magazines and websites reveal the seasonality for the industry and show that this month normally represents 6% of annual sales, then the annual sales forecast might be 6,100 / 6% = 102,000 per year.

Business Operational Limitations

All businesses have operational limitations due to such factors as the number of staff, the size of the available premises, or the availability of finance. When producing a sales forecast it is important to check whether the forecast arrived at is achievable within the operational capabilities of the business.

For example, a restaurant has a given number of tables, seats and therefore covers available. The sales forecast needs to be developed such that the number of available covers is not exceeded. This can be seen in operation in our restaurant revenue projection template.

Market Research

The sales forecast can be improved using market research and customer surveys. By attending trade shows, interviewing a selection of potential customers, or placing a small advert for the product, it is possible from the numbers of positive responses, to estimate the number of customers your business is likely to get when it opens for trade. With this information, using the average sales value for the product, an estimated opening sales forecast can be developed.

Seasonality

The sales forecast needs to take into account the seasonality of the industry in which you operate. Few businesses have steady sales throughout the year. Many businesses are dependent on the weather or holiday periods such as Christmas, others are dependent on major trade show activity.

Rules of Thumb used in the Industry

Research in trade magazines and websites or discussion with people already in the industry will reveal any useful rules of thumb which can be applied to the business. For example it might be possible to estimate the level of repeat business using a rule of thumb.

One final approach, if information is not available, is to work out the sales forecast needed to generate the owner a required level of net income. While this approach will not have any foundation on which to support a financial projection, it will allow the owner of the business to decide whether the level of sales required is achievable before investing too much time and effort in the new venture.

Forecasting Sales and the Financial Projections Template

A good sales forecast should look five years ahead with the first year sales forecast on a monthly basis. How you forecast sales will depend on the type of industry in which it operates. We have created simple forecast templates for a number of industries, some which are listed below.

• Bed and Breakfast Business Plan Revenue Projection
• Restaurant Business Revenue Projection
• In-App Purchase Revenue Model
• Website Traffic Estimator

More templates are available in our Business Templates Section , and more will be added in the future. If your industry is not listed contact us and let us know, and we’ll try to help.

About the Author

Chartered accountant Michael Brown is the founder and CEO of Plan Projections. He has worked as an accountant and consultant for more than 25 years and has built financial models for all types of industries. He has been the CFO or controller of both small and medium sized companies and has run small businesses of his own. He has been a manager and an auditor with Deloitte, a big 4 accountancy firm, and holds a degree from Loughborough University.

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How to calculate a sales forecast for a new business

Table of Contents

Definition of a sales forecast

The uses of a sales forecast, how to calculate sales forecast for a new business, calculate a sales forecast using the accounts of your competition , calculate a sales forecast using a target market, manage your finances with countingup.

When you’re running a business, you should always keep one eye on the future. If you don’t have a rough idea of what the next week, month, or year might bring, you’ll be at a disadvantage when making business decisions. This means that calculating a sales forecast is essential, especially when you’re just starting a business or beginning to write a business plan . 

Sales forecasting can be tough if you don’t have much business experience, but we’re here to help. This article will cover a range of different topics related to sales forecasting, including:

Creating a sales forecast is the first step in managing your company’s cash flow . Your cash flow is the movement of money in and out of your business. By forecasting your sales, you’ll be able to predict your gro s s profit and net profit , which means you can start anticipating what money you’ll have to spend on running your business for the next month. 

Put simply, a sales forecast is a prediction of how much you’re going to sell in the coming month. This forecast doesn’t need to be a guess — it’s possible to calculate a fairly accurate forecast with some thorough research. The focus of your research will differ depending on which sales forecast method you pick.

Firstly, your sales forecast is important because it helps you set sales goals . Measuring the success of your business is a vital part of deciding its future, and setting sales goals is one of the simplest ways to measure success. 

If you have an accurate sales forecast, you’ll be able to set realistic sales goals. You’ll want your goals to be realistic, as this will give the clearest picture of how well your company is doing and if significant changes are needed.

Similarly, sales forecasts can also help create an accurate budget for your business. As a sales forecast is essential for predicting the money your business will make, it also plays an important part in working out how much money you’ll have to spend. 

Finally, sales forecasts help with finding investors for your business . If you’re looking for financial support to start your business, any investor you approach will likely be interested in the amount of money you expect the business to make. If you’ve created a sales forecast, you’ll be able to provide this information.

Large, well-established businesses rely on the sales figures of previous months to calculate their sales forecasts for the future. While having previous sales figures helps create more accurate forecasts, it’s not essential. There are a couple of methods new businesses can use to calculate their sales forecasts, even if they don’t have a sales history to look back at.

It’s always a good idea to research the competition when you’re setting up a new business. This is also true when calculating a sales forecast, but it depends on the type of businesses that make up your competition.

If any of your competitors are registered with the government as limited companies , they will have to make their accounts publicly available. These accounts will contain things like their monthly expenses, total profits, and (most importantly) the money they’ve made from sales. 

Using this last figure, you can work out how much your competitors are making from sales each month, and get a reasonable estimate of your own sales. You can find these accounts by searching for your competitor’s business on Companies House .

Please note that this method isn’t effective if your competitors are sole traders , as this means they won’t need to publish their accounts publicly. In this instance, you should use the forecasting method below. 

This method is known as ‘bottom-up’ forecasting, as you start at the bottom — your potential market of customers — and then work up to a forecast — the percentage of those customers that make a purchase.

The first step of this method is identifying your target market . This is the section of the population that you think will be interested in your product. With a little market research — things like sending out surveys, or posting polls on social media — you can work out how many people are in your target market. 

Once you have the size of your target market, you need to make realistic estimates of how many people will make a purchase. For example, if 1000 people in the local area are potential customers, you should expect 10% to visit your store or website, and 1% to actually make a purchase.

This method of calculating a sales forecast is good because it’s very adaptable. If you get many more or far fewer sales than you originally calculated, then you can adjust your figures accordingly and record the new forecast. 

It’s also a good idea to categorise this sort of sales forecast. Instead of estimating your overall sales, estimate the sales of each type of product you sell. That way, you can use the forecast to work out how many of each product to make or order each month. 

Creating a sales forecast is a great start, but it’s only the first part of managing your sales revenue. Once you start making sales and money starts coming in, you’ll need to track that cash so you can work out where to spend it. If you think you might have trouble with this, try using a financial software tool like Countingup.

Countingup is the business current account with built-in accounting software that allows you to manage all your financial data in one place. With features like automatic expense categorisation, invoicing on the go, receipt capture tools, tax estimates, and cash flow insights, you can confidently keep on top of your business finances wherever you are. 

You can also share your bookkeeping with your accountant instantly without worrying about duplication errors, data lags or inaccuracies. Seamless, simple, and straightforward!  Find out more here .

• Counting Up on Facebook
• Counting Up on Twitter
• Counting Up on LinkedIn

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Planning, Startups, Stories

Tim berry on business planning, starting and growing your business, and having a life in the meantime., standard business plan financials: sales forecast example.

Continuing my series on standard business plan financials , this is an example of a startup sales forecast. It’s a direct follow-up to yesterday’s How to Forecast Sales . The goal is to take a hypothetical case and open up the thinking involved, not so anybody just copies it, but rather to serve as an example. The underlying goal is to open up the idea that forecasting isn’t a technical feat; it’s something that anybody can do.

We had Garrett the bike store owner yesterday. Today it’s Magda, who wants to open up a new café in an office park. She wants a small locale, just six tables of four. She wants to serve coffee and lunches. She hasn’t contracted the locale yet, but she has a good idea of where she wants to locate it and what size she wants, so she wants to estimate realistic sales. She assumes a certain size and location and develops a base forecast to get started.

Establishing a base case

She starts with understanding her capacity. She does some simple math. She estimates that with six tables of four people each, she can do only about 24 sit-down lunches in an average day, because lunch is just a single hour. And then she adds to-go lunches, which she estimates will be about double the table lunches, so 48 per day. She estimates lunch beverages as .9 beverages for every lunch at the tables, and only .5 beverages for every to-go lunch. Then she calculates the coffee capacity as a maximum of one customer every two minutes, or 30 customers per hour; and she estimates how she expects the flow during the morning hours, with a maximum 30 coffees during the 8-9 a.m. hour. She also estimates some coffees at lunch, based on 3 coffees for every 10 lunches. You can see the results here, as a quick worksheet for calculations.

Where do those estimates come from? How does Magda know? Ideally, she knows because she has experience. She’s familiar with the café business as a former worker, owner, or close connection. Or perhaps she has a partner, spouse, friend, or even a consultant who can make educated guesses. And it helps to break the estimates down into smaller pieces, as you can see Magda has done here.

And, by the way, there is a lesson there about estimating and educated guesses: Magda calculates 97 coffees per day. That’s really 100. Always round your educated guesses. Exact numbers give a false sense of certainty.

Café monthly assumptions

She then estimates monthly capacity. You saw in Illustration 7-2 that she estimates 22 workdays per month, and multiplies coffees, lunches, and beverages, to generate the estimated unit numbers for a baseline sample month.

So that means the base case is about 1,500 lunches, about 1,000 beverages, and about 2,000 coffees in a month. Before she takes the next step, Magda adds up some numbers to see whether she should just abandon her idea. At $10 per lunch and $2 per coffee or beverage, that’s roughly $15,000 in lunches, $2,000 in lunch beverages, and $4,000 in coffees in a month. She probably calls that $20,000 as a rough estimate of a true full capacity. She could figure on a few thousand in rent, a few thousand in salaries, and then decide that she should continue planning, from the quick view, like it could be a viable business (And that, by the way, in a single paragraph, is a break-even analysis).

From base case to sales forecast

With those rough numbers established as capacity, and some logic for what drives sales, and how the new business might gear up, Magda then does a quick calculation of how she might realistically expect sales to go, compared to capacity, during her first year.

Month-by-month estimates for the first year

All of which brings us to a realistic sales forecast for Magda’s café in the office park (with some monthly columns removed for visibility’s sake). This is a spreadsheet view, so, if you’re a LivePlan user, all you need is to figure the assumptions and the software will do the calculations and arrangement.

Notice that Magda is being realistic. Although her capacity looks like about $20,000 of sales per month, she knows it will take a while to build the customer base and get the business up to that level. She starts out at only about half of what she calculated as full sales; and she gets closer to full sales towards the end of the first year, when her projected sales are more than $19,000.

Important: these are all just rough numbers, for general calculations. There is nothing exact about these estimates. Don’t be fooled by how exact they appear.

Notice how she’s working with educated guessing. She isn’t turning to some magic information source to find out what her sales will be. She doesn’t assume there is some magic “right answer.” She isn’t using quadratic equations and she doesn’t need an advanced degree in calculus. She does need to have some sense of what to realistically expect. Ideally she’s worked in a restaurant or knows somebody who has, so she has some reasonable information to draw on.

Estimating direct costs

We’ve seen direct costs already, in the previous section. They are also called COGS, or cost of goods sold, or unit costs. In Magda’s case, her direct costs or COGS are what she pays for the coffee beans, beverages, bread, meat, potatoes, and other ingredients in the food she serves.

Just as with the sales categories, forecast your direct costs in categories that match your chart of accounts.

So, with her unit sales estimates already there, Magda needs only add estimated direct costs per unit to finish the forecast. The math is as simple as it was for the sales, multiplying her estimated units times her per unit direct cost. Then it adds the rows and the columns appropriately.

Here again you see the idea of educated guessing, estimates, and summary. Magda doesn’t break down all the possibilities for lunches into details, differentiating the steak sandwich from the veggie sandwich, and everything in between; that level of detail is unmanageable in a forecast. She estimates the overall average direct cost. Coffees cost an average of 40 cents per coffee, and lunches about $5.00. She estimates because she’s familiar with the business. And if she weren’t familiar with the business, she’d  find a partner who is, or do a lot more research.

wow this was very helpful thanks!

Dear There,

Somehow, I found the above-mentioned is very interesting in its simplicity explanation and guide through. FYI , I am an SME level, you could say a beginner ,trying hard as an SME category to build on my new product.

Of course the above coffee case was an excellent example, but would like to have a realistic outlook for my new product. how about giving me a hand in this?

If I have an answer from your side I will in a position to share with my concern.

Mutaz thanks for the offer, and best of luck to you … I’m overbooked, oversubscribed, not able to help with specific forecasts. Thanks for asking. Tim

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Money blog: 'Loud budgeting' - The money-saving trend that has nothing to do with giving up your daily coffee

Created accidentally by a comedian, "loud budgeting" is breaking down the taboo of speaking about money. Read this and the rest of our Weekend Money features, and leave a comment, and we'll be back with rolling personal finance and consumer news on Monday.

Saturday 11 May 2024 09:05, UK

Weekend Money

• 'Loud budgeting': The money-saving trend that has nothing to do with giving up your daily coffee
• What is most in-demand period property?
• £12m tea advert, downsizing, £320 tasting menus and job interview mistakes: What readers have said this week
• Free childcare applications about to open for new age band
• Where has huge week for UK economy left us?

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• Mortgage rates up again this week - here are the best deals on the market
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• Best of the Money blog - an archive

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By Jess Sharp , Money team 

Money saving trends are constantly popping up on social media - but one in particular has been gaining huge amounts of attention.

Created accidentally by a comedian, loud budgeting is breaking down the taboo of speaking about money.

The idea is based on being firmer/more vocal about your financial boundaries in social situations and setting out what you are happy to spend your money on, instead of "Keeping up with the Joneses". 

On TikTok alone, videos published under the hashtag #loudbudgeting have garnered more than 30 million views - and that figure is continuing to climb. 

We spoke to Lukas Battle - the 26-year-old who unintentionally created the trend as part of a comedy sketch. 

Based in New York, he came up with the term in a skit about the "quiet luxury" hype, which had spread online in 2023 inspired by shows like Succession. 

The term was used for humble bragging about your wealth with expensive items that were subtle in their design - for example, Gwyneth Paltrow's  £3,900 moss green wool coat from The Row, which she wore during her ski resort trial...

"I was never a big fan of the quiet luxury trend, so I just kind of switched the words and wrote 'loud budgeting is in'. I'm tired of spending money and I don't want to pretend to be rich," Lukas said. 

"That's how it started and then the TikTok comments were just obsessed with that original idea." 

This was the first time he mentioned it...

Lukas explained that it wasn't about "being poor" but about not being afraid of sharing your financial limits and "what's profitable for you personally". 

"It's not 'skip a coffee a day and you'll become a millionaire'."

While talking money has been seen as rude or taboo, he said it's something his generation is more comfortable doing. 

"I've seen more debate around the topic and I think people are really intrigued and attracted by the idea," he said. 

"It's just focusing your spending and time on things you enjoy and cutting out the things you might feel pressured to spend your money on."  

He has incorporated loud budgeting into his own life, telling his friends "it's free to go outside" and opting for cheaper dinner alternatives.

"Having the terminology and knowing it's a trend helps people understand it and there's no awkward conversation around it," he said. 

The trend has been a big hit with so-called American "finfluencers", or "financial influencers", but people in the UK have started practising it as well. 

Mia Westrap has taken up loud budgeting by embarking on a no-buy year and sharing her finances with her 11.3k TikTok followers. 

Earning roughly £2,100 a month, she spends around £1,200 on essentials, like rent, petrol and car insurance, but limits what else she can purchase. 

Clothes, fizzy drinks, beauty treatments, makeup, dinners out and train tickets are just some things on her "red list". 

The 26-year-old PHD student first came across the idea back in 2017, but decided to take up the challenge this year after realising she was living "pay check to pay check". 

She said her "biggest fear" in the beginning was that her friends wouldn't understand what she was doing, but she found loud budgeting helped. 

"I'm still trying my best to just go along with what everyone wants to do but I just won't spend money while we do it and my friends don't mind that, we don't make a big deal out of it," she said. 

So far, she has been able to save £1,700, and she said talking openly about her money has been "really helpful". 

"There's no way I could have got this far if I wasn't baring my soul to the internet about the money I have spent. It has been a really motivating factor."

Financial expert John Webb said loud budgeting has the ability to help many "feel empowered" and create a "more realistic" relationship with money.

"This is helping to normalise having open and honest conversations about finances," the consumer affair manager at Experien said. 

"It can also reduce the anxiety some might have by keeping their financial worries to themselves." 

However, he warned it's important to be cautious and to take the reality of life into consideration. 

"It could cause troubles within friendship groups if they're not on the same page as you or have different financial goals," he said.

"This challenge isn't meant to stop you from having fun, but it is designed to help people become more conscious and intentional when it comes to money, and reduce the stigma around talking about it." 

Rightmove's keyword tool shows Victorian-era houses are the most commonly searched period properties, with people drawn to their ornate designs and features.

Georgian and Edwardian-style are second and third respectively, followed by Tudor properties. Regency ranked in fifth place.

Rightmove property expert Tim Bannister said: "Home hunters continue to be captivated by the character and charm of properties that we see in period dramas.

"Victorian homes remain particularly popular, characterised by their historic charm, solid construction, and spacious interiors. You'll often find Victorian houses in some of the most desirable locations which include convenient access to schools and transport links."

Throughout the week Money blog readers have shared their thoughts on the stories we've been covering, with the most correspondence coming in on...

• A hotly contested debate on the best brand of tea
• Downsizing homes
• The cost of Michelin-starred food

Job interview mistakes

On Wednesday we reported on a new £12m ad from PG Tips in response to it falling behind rivals such as Twinings, Yorkshire Tea and Tetley....

We had lots of comments like this...

How on earth was the PG Tips advert so expensive? I prefer Tetley tea, PG Tips is never strong enough flavour for me. Shellyleppard

The reason for the sales drop with PG Tips could be because they increased the price and reduced the quantity of bags from 240 to 180 - it's obvious. Royston

And then this question which we've tried to answer below...

Why have PG Tips changed from Pyramid shape tea bags, to a square? Sam

Last year PG Tips said it was changing to a square bag that left more room for leaves to infuse, as the bags wouldn't fold over themselves.

We reported on data showing how downsizing could save you money for retirement - more than £400,000, in some regions, by swapping four beds for two.

Some of our readers shared their experiences...

We are downsizing and moving South so it's costing us £100k extra for a smaller place, all money from retirement fund. AlanNorth

Interesting read about downsizing for retirement. We recently did this to have the means to retire early at 52. However, we bought a house in the south of France for the price of a flat in our town in West Sussex. Now living the dream! OliSarah

How much should we pay for food?

Executive chef at London's two-Michelin-starred Ikoyi, Jeremy Chan, raised eyebrows when he suggested to the Money blog that Britons don't pay enough for restaurant food.

Ikoyi, the 35th best restaurant in the world, charges £320 for its tasting menu. 

"I don't think people pay enough money for food, I think we charge too little, [but] we want to always be accessible to as many people as possible, we're always trying our best to do that," he said, in a piece about his restaurant's tie up with Uber Eats... 

We had this in... 

Are they serious? That is two weeks' worth of food shopping for me, if the rich can afford this "tasting menu" then they need to be taxed even more by the government, it's just crazy! Steve T

If the rate of pay is proportionate to the vastly overpriced costs of the double Michelin star menu, I would gladly peel quail eggs for four-hour stints over continuing to be abused as a UK supply teacher. AndrewWard

Does this two-star Michelin star chef live in the real world? Who gives a toss if he stands and peels his quails eggs for four hours, and he can get the best turbot from the fishmonger fresh on a daily basis? It doesn't justify the outrageous price he is charging for his tasting menu. Topaztraveller

Chefs do make me laugh, a steak is just a steak, they don't make the meat! They just cook it like the rest of us, but we eat out because we can't be bothered cooking! StevieGrah

Finally, many of you reacted to this feature on common mistakes in job interviews...

Those 10 biggest mistakes people make in interviews is the dumbest thing I've ever read. They expect all that and they'll be offering a £25k a year job. Why wouldn't I want to know about benefits and basic sick pay? And also a limp handshake? How's that relevant to how you work? Jre90

Others brought their own tips...

Whenever I go for an interview I stick to three points: 1. Be yourself 2. Own the interview 3. Wear the clothes that match the job you are applying Kevin James Blakey

From Sunday, eligible working parents of children from nine-months-old in England will be able to register for access to up to 15 free hours of government-funded childcare per week.

This will then be granted from September. 

Check if you're eligible  here  - or read on for our explainer on free childcare across the UK.

Three and four year olds

In England, all parents of children aged three and four in England can claim 15 hours of free childcare per week, for 1,140 hours (38 weeks) a year, at an approved provider.

This is a universal offer open to all.

It can be extended to 30 hours where both parents (or the sole parent) are in work, earn the weekly minimum equivalent of 16 hours at the national minimum or living wage, and have an income of less than £100,000 per year.

Two year olds

Previously, only parents in receipt of certain benefits were eligible for 15 hours of free childcare.

But, as of last month, this was extended to working parents.

This is not a universal offer, however.

A working parent must earn more than £8,670 but less than £100,000 per year. For couples, the rule applies to both parents.

Nine months old

In September, this same 15-hour offer will be extended to working parents of children aged from nine months. From 12 May, those whose children will be at least nine months old on 31 August can apply to received the 15 hours of care from September.

From September 2025

The final change to the childcare offer in England will be rolled out in September 2025, when eligible working parents of all children under the age of five will be able to claim 30 hours of free childcare a week.

In some areas of Wales, the Flying Start early years programme offers 12.5 hours of free childcare for 39 weeks, for eligible children aged two to three. The scheme is based on your postcode area, though it is currently being expanded.

All three and four-year-olds are entitled to free early education of 10 hours per week in approved settings during term time under the Welsh government's childcare offer.

Some children of this age are entitled to up to 30 hours per week of free early education and childcare over 48 weeks of the year. The hours can be split - but at least 10 need to be used on early education.

To qualify for this, each parent must earn less than £100,000 per year, be employed and earn at least the equivalent of working 16 hours a week at the national minimum wage, or be enrolled on an undergraduate, postgraduate or further education course that is at least 10 weeks in length.

All three and four-year-olds living in Scotland are entitled to at least 1,140 hours per year of free childcare, with no work or earnings requirements for parents. 

This is usually taken as 30 hours per week over term time (38 weeks), though each provider will have their own approach.

Some households can claim free childcare for two-year-olds. To be eligible you have to be claiming certain benefits such as Income Support, Jobseeker's Allowance or Universal Credit, or have a child that is in the care of their local council or living with you under a guardianship order or kinship care order.

Northern Ireland

There is no scheme for free childcare in Northern Ireland. Some other limited support is available.

Working parents can access support from UK-wide schemes such as tax credits, Universal Credit, childcare vouchers and tax-free childcare.

Aside from this, all parents of children aged three or four can apply for at least 12.5 hours a week of funded pre-school education during term time. But over 90% of three-year-olds have a funded pre-school place - and of course this is different to childcare.

What other help could I be eligible for?

Tax-free childcare  - Working parents in the UK can claim up to £500 every three months (up to £2,000 a year) for each of their children to help with childcare costs. 

If the child is disabled, the amount goes up to £1,000 every three months (up to £4,000 a year).

To claim the benefit, parents will need to open a tax-free childcare account online. For every 80p paid into the account, the government will top it up by 20p.

The scheme is available until the September after the child turns 11.

Universal credit  - Working families on universal credit can claim back up to 85% of their monthly childcare costs, as long as the care is paid for upfront. The most you can claim per month is £951 for one child or £1,630 for two or more children.

Tax credits -  People claiming working tax credit can get up to 70% of what they pay for childcare if their costs are no more than £175 per week for one child or £300 per work for multiple children.

Two big economic moments dominated the news agenda in Money this week - interest rates and GDP.

As expected, the Bank of England held the base rate at 5.25% on Wednesday - but a shift in language was instructive about what may happen next.

Bank governor Andrew Bailey opened the door to a summer cut to 5%, telling reporters that an easing of rates at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 20 June was neither ruled out nor a fait accompli.

More surprisingly, he suggested that rate cuts, when they start, could go deeper "than currently priced into market rates".

He refused to be drawn on what that path might look like - but markets had thought rates could bottom out at 4.5% or 4.75% this year, and potentially 3.5% or 4% next.

"To make sure that inflation stays around the 2% target - that inflation will neither be too high nor too low - it's likely that we will need to cut Bank rate over the coming quarters and make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive over the forecast period," Mr Bailey said.

You can read economics editor Ed Conway's analysis of the Bank's decision here ...

On Friday we discovered the UK is no longer in recession.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics said.

This followed two consecutive quarters of the economy shrinking.

The data was more positive than anticipated.

"Britain is not just out of recession," wrote Conway. "It is out of recession with a bang."

The UK has seen its fastest growth since the tailend of the pandemic - and Conway picked out three other reasons for optimism.

1/ An economic growth rate of 0.6% is near enough to what economists used to call "trend growth". It's the kind of number that signifies the economy growing at more or less "normal" rates.

2/ 0.6% means the UK is, alongside Canada, the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (we've yet to hear from Japan, but economists expect its economy to contract in the first quarter).

3/ Third, it's not just gross domestic product that's up. So too is gross domestic product per head - the number you get when you divide our national income by every person in the country. After seven years without any growth, GDP per head rose by 0.4% in the first quarter.

GDP per head is a more accurate yardstick for the "feelgood factor", said Conway - perhaps meaning people will finally start to feel better off.

For more on where Friday's figures leaves us, listen to an Ian King Business Podcast special...

The Money blog is your place for consumer news, economic analysis and everything you need to know about the cost of living - bookmark news.sky.com/money .

It runs with live updates every weekday - while on Saturdays we scale back and offer you a selection of weekend reads.

Check them out this morning and we'll be back on Monday with rolling news and features.

The Money team is Emily Mee, Bhvishya Patel, Jess Sharp, Katie Williams, Brad Young and Ollie Cooper, with sub-editing by Isobel Souster. The blog is edited by Jimmy Rice.

If you've missed any of the features we've been running in Money this year, or want to check back on something you've previously seen in the blog, this archive of our most popular articles may help...

Loaves of bread have been recalled from shelves in Japan after they were found to contain the remains of a rat.

Production of the bread in Tokyo has been halted after parts of a "small animal" were found by at least two people.

Pasco Shikishima Corp, which produces the bread, said 104,000 packages have been recalled as it apologised and promised compensation.

A company representative told Sky News's US partner network, NBC News, that a "small black rat" was found in the bread. No customers were reported to have fallen ill as a result of ingesting the contaminated bread.

"We deeply apologise for the serious inconvenience and trouble this has caused to our customers, suppliers, and other concerned parties," the spokesman said.

Pasco added in a separate statement that "we will do our utmost to strengthen our quality controls so that this will never happen again. We ask for your understanding and your co-operation."

Japanese media reports said at least two people who bought the bread in the Gunma prefecture, north-west of Tokyo, complained to the company about finding a rodent in the bread.

Record levels of shoplifting appear to be declining as fewer shopkeepers reported thefts last year, new figures show. 

A survey by the Office for National Statistics shows 26% of retailers experienced customer theft in 2023, down from a record high of 28% in 2022.

This comes despite a number of reports suggesting shoplifting is becoming more frequent. 

A  separate ONS finding , which used police crime data, showed reports of shoplifting were at their highest level in 20 years in 2023, with law enforcements logging 430,000 instances of the crime.

Let's get you up to speed on the biggest business news of the past 24 hours. 

A privately owned used-car platform is circling Cazoo Group, its stricken US-listed rival, which is on the brink of administration.

Sky News has learnt that Motors.co.uk is a leading contender to acquire Cazoo's marketplace operation, which would include its brand and intellectual property assets.

The process to auction the used-car platform's constituent parts comes after it spent tens of millions of pounds on sponsorship deals in football, snooker and darts in a rapid attempt to gain market share.

The owner of British Airways has reported a sharp rise in profits amid soaring demand for trips and a fall in the cost of fuel.

International Airlines Group said its operating profit for the first three months of the year was €68m (£58.5m) - above expectations and up from €9m (£7.7m) during the same period in 2023.

The company, which also owns Aer Lingus, Iberia and Vueling, said earnings had soared thanks to strong demand, particularly over the Easter holidays.

The prospect of a strike across Tata Steel's UK operations has gained further traction after a key union secured support for industrial action.

Community, which has more than 3,000 members, said 85% voted in favour of fighting the India-owned company's plans for up to 2,800 job losses, the majority of them at the country's biggest steelworks in Port Talbot, South Wales.

Tata confirmed last month it was to press ahead with the closure of the blast furnaces at the plant, replacing them with electric arc furnaces to reduce emissions and costs.

In doing so, the company rejected an alternative plan put forward by the Community, GMB and Unite unions that, they said, would raise productivity and protect jobs across the supply chain.

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Rivian sticks to production forecast below Wall Street targets

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Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; Editing by Shailesh Kuber, Matthew Lewis and Richard Chang

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Akash reports on technology companies in the United States, electric vehicle companies, and the space industry. His reporting usually appears in the Autos & Transportation and Technology sections. He has a postgraduate degree in Conflict, Development, and Security from the University of Leeds. Akash's interests include music, football (soccer), and Formula 1.

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Starlink experiencing degraded service, Musk says satellites under pressure

Starlink, the satellite unit of Elon Musk's SpaceX, is experiencing a degraded service, its website showed on Saturday, adding that the team is investigating the issue.

AI stocks plunge after AMD gives weak forecast for chip sales

• AI stocks plunged on Wednesday after AMD reported guidance that put a cloud over future AI chip demand.
• AMD said it expects its MI300 AI chips to generate $4 billion in revenue in 2024, which was below some Wall Street forecasts.
• Shares of Super Micro Computer, AMD, and Nvidia erased a collective $143 billion in market value.

AI stocks plunged on Wednesday after AMD offered analysts 2024 revenue guidance for its AI chip that was below analyst estimates.

Shares of AMD fell 10%, helping drag down its peer Nvidia by about 5% in Wednesday trades. Meanwhile, Super Micro Computer , which sells AI-enabled servers using products from Nvidia and AMD, dropped 15% after it reported mixed earnings results.

The three companies wiped out a collective $143 billion in market value in Wednesday's trading session.

AMD's failure to meet Wall Street's lofty AI sales expectations led to concerns that AMD is suffering from a demand problem, though AMD CEO Lisa Su dismissed those concerns and said that supply is the bigger issue for its AI chip sales.

"We are tight on supply. So there's no question in the near-term that if we had more supply, we have demand for that product," AMD CEO Lisa Su said on the company's earnings call.

AMD raised its 2024 revenue guidance for its MI300 AI chip by $500 million to $4 billion. Despite the increase, that figure failed to meet lofty investor expectations, with some expecting upwards of $8 billion in revenue from the AI chip this year, according to Bloomberg.

While supply constraints seem to be a headwind for AMD's AI chip business, so too could be competition. The company's MI300 chip is a direct competitor to Nvidia's immensely popular H100 chip, and AMD claims that its chip outperforms Nvidia's. 

But according to Goldman Sachs , Nvidia's next generation H200 chip is 2-times more powerful in inference than its older H100 chip, so AMD may already be behind the ball with its AI chip offering.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sure seems to think so.

In an interview last month, Huang said his competitors would essentially have to pay its customers to use their AI chips as they aren't comparable to the compute power offered by Nvidia's GPUs.

"Our total cost of operations is so good that even when the competitor's chips are free, it's not cheap enough," Huang said at the Stanford Economic Summit. 

Whether Nvidia will be able to meet Wall Street's lofty sales and profit expectations won't be known until the company reports earnings on May 22. 

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B&G Foods plans asset sale, cuts sales, profit forecasts

B&G Foods said it has been evaluating potential divestitures that “represent between 10% to 15% of the company’s consolidated net sales”.

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US manufacturer B&G Foods is considering divesting its frozen and canned vegetable businesses.

The news came alongside cuts to B&G Foods’ revenue and profit forecasts for 2024.

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The company said it has been evaluating potential divestitures that “represent between 10% to 15% of the company’s consolidated net sales”.

After selling off its Green Giant shelf-stable product line in the US to Seneca Foods last November and its snacks business Back to Nature the year before to Barilla, B&G Foods has decided to place its frozen and remaining canned vegetable businesses under review.

The New York-listed company is “evaluating a possible divestiture of some or all of the assets in its frozen and vegetable business unit, either in a single transaction or in a series of transactions”, it wrote in a statement.

The company’s frozen and vegetable unit’s results included just Green Giant and Le Sueur brands.

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CEO and president Casey Keller said: “Green Giant remains a strong brand with broad awareness and distribution, and the frozen vegetables category is on trend with health and dietary trends.

“However, I believe the frozen vegetable business may not be the right fit with B&G Foods’ focus and capabilities, particularly since we have no plans to add more assets in the frozen portfolio given the opportunities in our core shelf-stable businesses and overall capital constraints.”

The company revised its net sales guidance for i2024 to a range of $1.955bn to $1.985bn, having previously estimated $1.975bn to $2.02bn.

Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also cut to a range between $300m to $320m from the previous guidance of $305m to $325m. Adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance was revised to a range of $0.75 to $0.95 from $0.80 to $1.

The group saw its net sales fall 7.1% in the opening quarter of 2024, reaching $475m.

It returned a net loss of $40.2m compared to net income of $3.4m in the opening three months of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $75m, down 8.9% year-on-year.

Keller said: “B&G Foods’ first-quarter results demonstrated consistent margins and moderating inflation, with declines in net sales driven by foodservice trends and increased promotion spending. Volumes to retail customers were relatively flat.

“Going forward, we remain committed to driving low single-digit growth and continuing to reduce leverage. Further, we are accelerating efforts to reshape and clarify the portfolio for sharper focus and fit.”

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