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What Is an Inference? Definition & 10+ Examples

Have you ever predicted the end of a thrilling mystery novel, or gauged a friend’s mood from a text? Believe it or not, you’re exercising a key cognitive process known as inference — a mental process through which people draw conclusions based on evidence, reasoning, and logic.

Inference is invaluable, permeating various fields like science, literature, and communication. It guides us in analyzing situations and making educated guesses, particularly when the full picture isn’t clear, thus facilitating more informed decisions.

The study of inference not only refines one’s cognitive skills but also increases overall awareness and adaptability. With numerous real-world applications and theoretical frameworks, this fascinating topic provides a foundation for understanding human behavior and logical thought processes.

Let’s take a closer look:

Table of Contents

What Is an Inference?

An inference is a mental process by which individuals draw conclusions from available information. It is a fundamental aspect of human reasoning, allowing us to make sense of the world around us.

Inferences are often made through critical thinking or the application of logic, based on evidence and prior knowledge. While inferences can sometimes be incorrect, they are essential for understanding new information within the context of our existing understanding.

Inference differs from assumptions, predictions, and observations in several ways:

• Assumption: Assumptions are pre-existing beliefs or expectations without supporting evidence. While forming the basis for inferences, assumptions are not always grounded in evidence.
• Prediction: A prediction is a future-oriented statement based on current knowledge and trends. While inferences can guide predictions, predictions speculate about future events, unlike inferences that draw conclusions from current information.
• Observation: Observations describe phenomena experienced through our senses, serving as raw material for inferences. They are objective, providing necessary information without offering conclusions, unlike inferences.

The Inference Development Process

Step 1: observation and evidence collection.

The inference development process begins with observation . During this stage, an individual or scientist gathers relevant data and information to identify patterns and variables.

Evidence collection is crucial in this step and can be done through various methods, such as surveys, experiments, or existing data sources. This phase allows individuals to form a strong foundation in their scientific or logical inquiry.

Step 2: Interpreting Patterns and Instances

Once the data and evidence have been collected, the next step is to interpret patterns and instances . This stage involves analyzing the information to recognize relationships among variables, patterns, and instances.

Through critical thinking and analysis, individuals can draw connections between observed events and their potential causes or outcomes. This helps in narrowing down the focus of the inquiry and identifying the most relevant variables to consider.

Step 3: Forming a Conclusion or Educated Guess

The final step of the inference development process is to form a conclusion or educated guess based on the observations and interpretations made in the previous steps.

This is where individuals synthesize their findings into a logical, coherent statement that offers a possible explanation or prediction for the observed phenomena.

In science, this often results in the creation of a hypothesis, which can be further tested and refined through additional research and experimentation.

The inference development process is a fundamental aspect of scientific investigation. Accurate observations, thorough evidence collection, and careful interpretation of patterns and instances contribute to forming informed conclusions or educated guesses.

Inside the Human Mind: The Process of Making Inferences

Inference is the process of drawing conclusions based on available information. It is an essential part of human cognition and plays a crucial role in decision-making, problem-solving, and understanding new concepts.

The cognitive process of making inferences involves several mental activities, such as:

When a person encounters new information, they pay attention to it and process it through their mental filters. This involves comparing the new information with the existing knowledge stored in their long-term memory.

The person then applies reasoning skills to evaluate the various connections formed between the new information and the existing knowledge.

The Role of Prior Knowledge and Information From Our Environment

A crucial factor that impacts the process of making inferences is the individual’s prior knowledge. Prior knowledge serves as a foundation on which new information is organized and interconnected. It also helps in generating hypotheses and predictions while making inferences.

Information from our environment also plays a vital role in the process of making inferences. This information helps us to make connections and develop relevant conclusions based on the given data.

Environmental factors can significantly influence the quality and accuracy of inferences.

Example : If someone has limited exposure to a specific topic, their ability to make inferences may be hindered. In such cases, external resources such as books, experts, or online resources can help improve the process by providing access to the necessary information.

Types of Inference: Mapping the Inference Landscape

In this section, we will explore three main types of inference. Each type has its unique characteristics and is essential in different contexts:

Inductive Reasoning

Inductive reasoning draws general conclusions from specific observations, seeking patterns or trends. However, these conclusions may sometimes be inaccurate due to limited data or observations.

• Deductive Inference

Deductive inference reaches a specific conclusion from general premises or principles, following a logical structure. If the premises are true and the logic is valid, the conclusion must be true.

• Abductive Inference

Abductive inference forms the most plausible explanation based on available evidence, often viewed as educated guesswork. It’s commonly used in investigative fields like medical diagnosis, detective work, and scientific research.

In summary, inductive reasoning, deductive inference, and abductive inference are three critical types of inference. Each serves a distinct purpose and aids in problem-solving, decision-making, and hypothesis-forming.

Deductive Inference: Specific Conclusions from Generals

Deductive inference is a form of logical reasoning where a conclusion is reached based on two or more given premises. The process follows a specific set of rules that determine the validity of an argument.

In the context of deductive inference, a valid argument is one in which the conclusion must be true if the premises are also true.

Deductive inferences are often represented using syllogisms , which are logical statements consisting of a major premise, a minor premise, and a conclusion. For example:

• Major premise : All humans are mammals.
• Minor premise : John is a human.
• Conclusion : John is a mammal.

If the premises in a deductive inference are true, and the logical structure is valid, then the conclusion must also be true. This type of reasoning is, therefore, considered highly reliable and certain.

Deductive Inference in Action

Consider the following real-life application of deductive inference in medical diagnosis:

In this case, the doctor is using deductive reasoning to predict a possible outcome based on the information available.

By comparing Jane’s condition (high blood pressure) to the broader understanding of the effects of high blood pressure, the doctor can make a valid inference about her likelihood of experiencing frequent headaches.

Inductive Inference: Generalizing from Observations

Inductive inference is a method of reasoning used to draw general conclusions based on observations, patterns, or specific instances. It involves looking at specific information and making a broader prediction or hypothesis.

Inductive reasoning is probabilistic , meaning conclusions drawn are based on the probability of an event occurring rather than being absolute.

For example, if a person observes several instances of dogs having fur and concludes that all dogs have fur, they are utilizing inductive reasoning. This type of inference is commonly used in everyday life, scientific research, and various fields of study.

It is important to note that inductive inference is not foolproof . Even when a pattern holds in all observed cases, it may not hold universally. Though often accurate, conclusions drawn from inductive reasoning come with various degrees of uncertainty.

Inductive Inference in Action

Consider a meteorologist who wants to predict the weather for tomorrow using inductive inference. They gather data on several weeks of weather patterns, paying attention to daily temperatures, humidity, and wind patterns.

The meteorologist notices that over the past few weeks, on days when the humidity has been above 70% and the wind is coming from the east, there has been rain 80% of the time. They also note that the current wind direction is from the east and humidity is above 70%.

The meteorologist then concludes, using inductive reasoning, that there is an 80% chance it will rain tomorrow.

In this example, the meteorologist used historical data and observed patterns to make a probability-based prediction about future events. Although the prediction is not guaranteed to be accurate, it is an application of inductive inference in a real-life situation.

Abductive Inference: Educated Guesswork Explanation

Abductive inference, frequently referred to as abduction, is a form of logical reasoning used to arrive at the most plausible explanation for an observed phenomenon. It involves assessing various hypotheses and selecting one that best fits the available evidence.

Unlike deductive reasoning, which ensures a definite conclusion, abductive reasoning only produces a likely explanation as it deals with incomplete information.

Abductive inference is often used in the following situations:

• When the evidence does not conclusively point to a single explanation.
• When some background knowledge is available, but not enough to logically deduce the only possible conclusion.
• When a fast or initial assessment is needed to decide on a course of action.

Abductive Inference in Action

Consider a detective investigating a crime scene. They observe the following:

• Broken window
• Footprints leading away from the scene
• A missing item

The detective comes up with possible explanations to explain the phenomenon:

• A burglar broke into the house, stole something, and left through the window.
• A homeowner accidentally broke the window and went outside to check the damage.
• A visitor entered the house through the broken window, unaware that it was closed.

To determine which explanation is the most probable, the detective assesses each hypothesis using the available evidence and their background knowledge of typical criminal behavior. They may also consider elements such as the time of day , the location of the house , and the financial value of the missing item.

Based on the gathered information, the detective would likely decide that the first hypothesis is the most plausible explanation for the crime scene’s observed state.

Note that while abductive reasoning cannot guarantee the explanation is correct, it serves as a guide for the detective to take the necessary steps in their investigation.

Examples of Inference

In everyday situations.

Making inferences is a part of daily life. People regularly draw conclusions based on observations and information.

• If a person notices their colleague wearing a heavy coat and carrying an umbrella, they may infer it is cold and rainy outside.
• In another case, if a friend seems detached or disinterested during a conversation, one might conclude that the friend is preoccupied or stressed without explicitly knowing the reason.

In Logical Puzzles

Inferences are often utilized in solving logical puzzles. For instance, consider the classic problem:

• Premise 1: All humans are mortal.
• Premise 2: Socrates is human.
• Conclusion: Socrates is mortal.

This is an example of deductive reasoning , where one starts with general premises and reaches a specific conclusion by applying logical rules. Logical puzzles often require a combination of inferences to arrive at the correct solution.

Other Examples of Inference

Deductive Reasoning

• All men are mortal.
• John is a man.
• Therefore, John is mortal.
• The sun has risen every day throughout history.
• Therefore, the sun will rise tomorrow.

Abductive Reasoning

• The lawn is wet.
• It must have rained last night.

The Power of Inference: Its Role Across Different Fields

Inference in literature and fiction.

Inference plays a crucial role in literature and fiction, as it helps readers draw conclusions about a story’s characters, settings, and plot. By providing hints and clues within the context of the narrative, authors invite their audience to interpret and make sense of the story.

These pieces of evidence can be subtle, such as a character’s choice of words or actions, or more explicit, like descriptions of the setting. As readers, we rely on our ability to infer to grasp the underlying themes and messages of a literary work.

Inference in Logic and Philosophy

In the realm of logic and philosophy, inference serves as a fundamental thinking process, helping individuals draw conclusions based on available evidence or premises.

Syllogisms are classic examples of valid inferences in formal logic. They consist of two premises and a conclusion, illustrating the relationships between entities. For example:

• All humans are mortal.
• Socrates is a human.
• Therefore, Socrates is mortal.

This application of inference in logic and philosophy allows for the creation and evaluation of sound arguments and rational opinions.

Inference in Science

Scientific inquiry heavily relies on inference to formulate hypotheses, evaluate data, and make predictions. In this field, observers use available information and prior knowledge to advance our understanding of the natural world:

• They analyze experimental data.
• They develop models.
• They propose explanations for observed phenomena.

These conclusions often lead to further experimentation, demonstrating the iterative process of inference in scientific endeavors.

Inference in Mathematics

In mathematics, inference refers to the process of deducing properties and relationships from given information. Mathematicians use logical reasoning skills to deduce new theorems or statements based on established axioms and previous findings.

This process of inference bridges the gap between discrete pieces of data, helping to develop a coherent and consistent mathematical framework.

Inference in Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) utilizes inference techniques to process and analyze vast amounts of data, draw conclusions, and make predictions or recommendations.

Machine learning algorithms, a subset of AI, learn to recognize patterns and trends in the data through training, leading to improved performance over time. This ability to infer relationships and structures from data enables AI systems to tackle complex tasks, such as:

• Natural language processing
• Computer vision
• Decision-making in various contexts, such as in schools or businesses

The continuous growth and development of AI systems are a testament to the power and versatility of inference across different fields.

The Art of Inference: A Powerful Tool for Decision Making

Inference plays a significant role in the decision-making process. By analyzing information and deducing conclusions, individuals can make informed decisions based on available evidence and context.

Applying Inference to Personal Decisions

Heuristics in everyday decision-making are often driven by inference. Education and past experiences provide an individual with a foundation to extrapolate information and make informed decisions.

Example : Choosing a school for their child, a parent might infer that a higher-ranking school will offer a better education, considering various factors like reputation and available resources.

Emotions also influence the inference process in personal decisions. When someone feels extremely confident, they might make quicker decisions, relying on their emotional state to infer the needed information.

It is important to be aware of such biases and to ensure that sufficient data is considered before making a decision.

Inference in Legal and Judicial Situations

In legal and judicial situations, inference plays a crucial role in determining outcomes.

Adverse inference , for example, allows a judge or jury to draw a negative conclusion when a party refuses to provide information relevant to a case. This inference can significantly impact the outcome, as it mobilizes specific premises to reach an unfavorable implication for the withholding party.

Inference is also utilized in evaluating evidence presented in cases. TED (Testimony, Exhibits, Depositions) serves as the foundation of evidence, where parties infer the relevance and importance of the presented information. Jurors are tasked with inferring innocents or guilt based on this evidence while considering the context of the case.

In conclusion, inference is a powerful tool in decision-making as it allows individuals to:

• Evaluate available information.
• Deduce conclusions accordingly.

Both in personal situations and legal settings, the importance of inference cannot be overstated. To ensure the best outcomes, it is essential to be aware of the biases and potential pitfalls that might affect the inference process.

Challenges and Limitations of Inference

Inference reasoning can often be influenced by logical fallacies, which are errors in reasoning that weakens the argument. Common fallacies include:

• Ad Hominem : Attacking the person instead of the argument.
• Strawman : Misrepresenting the opponent’s argument to make it easier to attack.
• False Dichotomy : Presenting only two options when multiple possibilities exist.

Cognitive Biases

Cognitive biases can distort our thinking and decision-making process. Some common biases that can impact inferences are:

• Confirmation Bias : A tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs.
• Anchoring : The inclination to excessively rely on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions.
• Hindsight Bias : The belief that an event was predictable after it has occurred.

Accuracy and Reliability

The accuracy and reliability of an inference depend on the quality of the data and the logical structure applied. Factors affecting accuracy and reliability include:

• Insufficient or outdated data.
• Misinterpretation of data.
• Overgeneralization or oversimplification.

Availability Bias

An individual’s judgement can be swayed by the ease of recall of certain information. This cognitive shortcut is called availability bias.

It can lead to overestimating the likelihood of events that are easily remembered or encountered, and underestimating less memorable events.

Cognitive Dissonance

Cognitive dissonance occurs when an individual holds two or more contradictory beliefs, values, or attitudes.

This mental conflict can cause inconsistencies in the inference process, as individuals may attempt to reconcile their conflicting ideas through biased or illogical reasoning.

Emotions and Feelings

Emotions and feelings can influence how an individual interprets information and forms inferences.

Example : A person in a negative emotional state may more readily make pessimistic inferences, while someone in a positive state may be more prone to optimistic conclusions.

Being aware of emotional factors can help ensure that inferences are based on logical reasoning rather than emotional biases.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does inference help in learning.

In learning, inference enables individuals to utilize their critical thinking and reasoning skills to make connections between new information and existing knowledge.

This process aids in forming associations, understanding complex concepts, and anticipating future events.

How can I improve my inference skills?

To improve inference skills, practice critical thinking exercises, engage in discussions, analyze various scenarios, and make predictions based on available evidence.

Reading comprehension exercises and participating in debate forums can also be beneficial.

What role does inference play in statistical analysis?

In statistical analysis, inference refers to the process of making conclusions about a population based on a sample. It is used to estimate population parameters and test hypotheses, allowing for better decision-making and risk assessments based on available data.

Inference is a powerful cognitive technique that enables individuals to draw conclusions from available evidence. This process forms a vital part of everyday decision-making and spans across various professional fields.

The importance of inference cannot be overstated, as it contributes to the development of critical thinking skills, problem-solving, and decision-making abilities.

By understanding the concept of inference and recognizing its role in processing information, individuals can make better informed decisions and navigate the world with more confidence.

Harnessing the power of inference can add excitement and efficacy to everyday decision-making. Through its application, individuals can generate well-informed conclusions based on the evidence available, making it an invaluable tool in both personal and professional contexts.

Let’s harness the power of inference and make our everyday decision-making more exciting and effective!

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Critical Thinking

Critical thinking is a widely accepted educational goal. Its definition is contested, but the competing definitions can be understood as differing conceptions of the same basic concept: careful thinking directed to a goal. Conceptions differ with respect to the scope of such thinking, the type of goal, the criteria and norms for thinking carefully, and the thinking components on which they focus. Its adoption as an educational goal has been recommended on the basis of respect for students’ autonomy and preparing students for success in life and for democratic citizenship. “Critical thinkers” have the dispositions and abilities that lead them to think critically when appropriate. The abilities can be identified directly; the dispositions indirectly, by considering what factors contribute to or impede exercise of the abilities. Standardized tests have been developed to assess the degree to which a person possesses such dispositions and abilities. Educational intervention has been shown experimentally to improve them, particularly when it includes dialogue, anchored instruction, and mentoring. Controversies have arisen over the generalizability of critical thinking across domains, over alleged bias in critical thinking theories and instruction, and over the relationship of critical thinking to other types of thinking.

2.1 Dewey’s Three Main Examples

2.2 dewey’s other examples, 2.3 further examples, 2.4 non-examples, 3. the definition of critical thinking, 4. its value, 5. the process of thinking critically, 6. components of the process, 7. contributory dispositions and abilities, 8.1 initiating dispositions, 8.2 internal dispositions, 9. critical thinking abilities, 10. required knowledge, 11. educational methods, 12.1 the generalizability of critical thinking, 12.2 bias in critical thinking theory and pedagogy, 12.3 relationship of critical thinking to other types of thinking, other internet resources, related entries.

Use of the term ‘critical thinking’ to describe an educational goal goes back to the American philosopher John Dewey (1910), who more commonly called it ‘reflective thinking’. He defined it as

active, persistent and careful consideration of any belief or supposed form of knowledge in the light of the grounds that support it, and the further conclusions to which it tends. (Dewey 1910: 6; 1933: 9)

and identified a habit of such consideration with a scientific attitude of mind. His lengthy quotations of Francis Bacon, John Locke, and John Stuart Mill indicate that he was not the first person to propose development of a scientific attitude of mind as an educational goal.

In the 1930s, many of the schools that participated in the Eight-Year Study of the Progressive Education Association (Aikin 1942) adopted critical thinking as an educational goal, for whose achievement the study’s Evaluation Staff developed tests (Smith, Tyler, & Evaluation Staff 1942). Glaser (1941) showed experimentally that it was possible to improve the critical thinking of high school students. Bloom’s influential taxonomy of cognitive educational objectives (Bloom et al. 1956) incorporated critical thinking abilities. Ennis (1962) proposed 12 aspects of critical thinking as a basis for research on the teaching and evaluation of critical thinking ability.

Since 1980, an annual international conference in California on critical thinking and educational reform has attracted tens of thousands of educators from all levels of education and from many parts of the world. Also since 1980, the state university system in California has required all undergraduate students to take a critical thinking course. Since 1983, the Association for Informal Logic and Critical Thinking has sponsored sessions in conjunction with the divisional meetings of the American Philosophical Association (APA). In 1987, the APA’s Committee on Pre-College Philosophy commissioned a consensus statement on critical thinking for purposes of educational assessment and instruction (Facione 1990a). Researchers have developed standardized tests of critical thinking abilities and dispositions; for details, see the Supplement on Assessment . Educational jurisdictions around the world now include critical thinking in guidelines for curriculum and assessment.

For details on this history, see the Supplement on History .

2. Examples and Non-Examples

Before considering the definition of critical thinking, it will be helpful to have in mind some examples of critical thinking, as well as some examples of kinds of thinking that would apparently not count as critical thinking.

Dewey (1910: 68–71; 1933: 91–94) takes as paradigms of reflective thinking three class papers of students in which they describe their thinking. The examples range from the everyday to the scientific.

Transit : “The other day, when I was down town on 16th Street, a clock caught my eye. I saw that the hands pointed to 12:20. This suggested that I had an engagement at 124th Street, at one o’clock. I reasoned that as it had taken me an hour to come down on a surface car, I should probably be twenty minutes late if I returned the same way. I might save twenty minutes by a subway express. But was there a station near? If not, I might lose more than twenty minutes in looking for one. Then I thought of the elevated, and I saw there was such a line within two blocks. But where was the station? If it were several blocks above or below the street I was on, I should lose time instead of gaining it. My mind went back to the subway express as quicker than the elevated; furthermore, I remembered that it went nearer than the elevated to the part of 124th Street I wished to reach, so that time would be saved at the end of the journey. I concluded in favor of the subway, and reached my destination by one o’clock.” (Dewey 1910: 68–69; 1933: 91–92)

Ferryboat : “Projecting nearly horizontally from the upper deck of the ferryboat on which I daily cross the river is a long white pole, having a gilded ball at its tip. It suggested a flagpole when I first saw it; its color, shape, and gilded ball agreed with this idea, and these reasons seemed to justify me in this belief. But soon difficulties presented themselves. The pole was nearly horizontal, an unusual position for a flagpole; in the next place, there was no pulley, ring, or cord by which to attach a flag; finally, there were elsewhere on the boat two vertical staffs from which flags were occasionally flown. It seemed probable that the pole was not there for flag-flying.

“I then tried to imagine all possible purposes of the pole, and to consider for which of these it was best suited: (a) Possibly it was an ornament. But as all the ferryboats and even the tugboats carried poles, this hypothesis was rejected. (b) Possibly it was the terminal of a wireless telegraph. But the same considerations made this improbable. Besides, the more natural place for such a terminal would be the highest part of the boat, on top of the pilot house. (c) Its purpose might be to point out the direction in which the boat is moving.

“In support of this conclusion, I discovered that the pole was lower than the pilot house, so that the steersman could easily see it. Moreover, the tip was enough higher than the base, so that, from the pilot’s position, it must appear to project far out in front of the boat. Moreover, the pilot being near the front of the boat, he would need some such guide as to its direction. Tugboats would also need poles for such a purpose. This hypothesis was so much more probable than the others that I accepted it. I formed the conclusion that the pole was set up for the purpose of showing the pilot the direction in which the boat pointed, to enable him to steer correctly.” (Dewey 1910: 69–70; 1933: 92–93)

Bubbles : “In washing tumblers in hot soapsuds and placing them mouth downward on a plate, bubbles appeared on the outside of the mouth of the tumblers and then went inside. Why? The presence of bubbles suggests air, which I note must come from inside the tumbler. I see that the soapy water on the plate prevents escape of the air save as it may be caught in bubbles. But why should air leave the tumbler? There was no substance entering to force it out. It must have expanded. It expands by increase of heat, or by decrease of pressure, or both. Could the air have become heated after the tumbler was taken from the hot suds? Clearly not the air that was already entangled in the water. If heated air was the cause, cold air must have entered in transferring the tumblers from the suds to the plate. I test to see if this supposition is true by taking several more tumblers out. Some I shake so as to make sure of entrapping cold air in them. Some I take out holding mouth downward in order to prevent cold air from entering. Bubbles appear on the outside of every one of the former and on none of the latter. I must be right in my inference. Air from the outside must have been expanded by the heat of the tumbler, which explains the appearance of the bubbles on the outside. But why do they then go inside? Cold contracts. The tumbler cooled and also the air inside it. Tension was removed, and hence bubbles appeared inside. To be sure of this, I test by placing a cup of ice on the tumbler while the bubbles are still forming outside. They soon reverse” (Dewey 1910: 70–71; 1933: 93–94).

Dewey (1910, 1933) sprinkles his book with other examples of critical thinking. We will refer to the following.

Weather : A man on a walk notices that it has suddenly become cool, thinks that it is probably going to rain, looks up and sees a dark cloud obscuring the sun, and quickens his steps (1910: 6–10; 1933: 9–13).

Disorder : A man finds his rooms on his return to them in disorder with his belongings thrown about, thinks at first of burglary as an explanation, then thinks of mischievous children as being an alternative explanation, then looks to see whether valuables are missing, and discovers that they are (1910: 82–83; 1933: 166–168).

Typhoid : A physician diagnosing a patient whose conspicuous symptoms suggest typhoid avoids drawing a conclusion until more data are gathered by questioning the patient and by making tests (1910: 85–86; 1933: 170).

Blur : A moving blur catches our eye in the distance, we ask ourselves whether it is a cloud of whirling dust or a tree moving its branches or a man signaling to us, we think of other traits that should be found on each of those possibilities, and we look and see if those traits are found (1910: 102, 108; 1933: 121, 133).

Suction pump : In thinking about the suction pump, the scientist first notes that it will draw water only to a maximum height of 33 feet at sea level and to a lesser maximum height at higher elevations, selects for attention the differing atmospheric pressure at these elevations, sets up experiments in which the air is removed from a vessel containing water (when suction no longer works) and in which the weight of air at various levels is calculated, compares the results of reasoning about the height to which a given weight of air will allow a suction pump to raise water with the observed maximum height at different elevations, and finally assimilates the suction pump to such apparently different phenomena as the siphon and the rising of a balloon (1910: 150–153; 1933: 195–198).

Diamond : A passenger in a car driving in a diamond lane reserved for vehicles with at least one passenger notices that the diamond marks on the pavement are far apart in some places and close together in others. Why? The driver suggests that the reason may be that the diamond marks are not needed where there is a solid double line separating the diamond lane from the adjoining lane, but are needed when there is a dotted single line permitting crossing into the diamond lane. Further observation confirms that the diamonds are close together when a dotted line separates the diamond lane from its neighbour, but otherwise far apart.

Rash : A woman suddenly develops a very itchy red rash on her throat and upper chest. She recently noticed a mark on the back of her right hand, but was not sure whether the mark was a rash or a scrape. She lies down in bed and thinks about what might be causing the rash and what to do about it. About two weeks before, she began taking blood pressure medication that contained a sulfa drug, and the pharmacist had warned her, in view of a previous allergic reaction to a medication containing a sulfa drug, to be on the alert for an allergic reaction; however, she had been taking the medication for two weeks with no such effect. The day before, she began using a new cream on her neck and upper chest; against the new cream as the cause was mark on the back of her hand, which had not been exposed to the cream. She began taking probiotics about a month before. She also recently started new eye drops, but she supposed that manufacturers of eye drops would be careful not to include allergy-causing components in the medication. The rash might be a heat rash, since she recently was sweating profusely from her upper body. Since she is about to go away on a short vacation, where she would not have access to her usual physician, she decides to keep taking the probiotics and using the new eye drops but to discontinue the blood pressure medication and to switch back to the old cream for her neck and upper chest. She forms a plan to consult her regular physician on her return about the blood pressure medication.

Candidate : Although Dewey included no examples of thinking directed at appraising the arguments of others, such thinking has come to be considered a kind of critical thinking. We find an example of such thinking in the performance task on the Collegiate Learning Assessment (CLA+), which its sponsoring organization describes as

a performance-based assessment that provides a measure of an institution’s contribution to the development of critical-thinking and written communication skills of its students. (Council for Aid to Education 2017)

A sample task posted on its website requires the test-taker to write a report for public distribution evaluating a fictional candidate’s policy proposals and their supporting arguments, using supplied background documents, with a recommendation on whether to endorse the candidate.

Immediate acceptance of an idea that suggests itself as a solution to a problem (e.g., a possible explanation of an event or phenomenon, an action that seems likely to produce a desired result) is “uncritical thinking, the minimum of reflection” (Dewey 1910: 13). On-going suspension of judgment in the light of doubt about a possible solution is not critical thinking (Dewey 1910: 108). Critique driven by a dogmatically held political or religious ideology is not critical thinking; thus Paulo Freire (1968 [1970]) is using the term (e.g., at 1970: 71, 81, 100, 146) in a more politically freighted sense that includes not only reflection but also revolutionary action against oppression. Derivation of a conclusion from given data using an algorithm is not critical thinking.

What is critical thinking? There are many definitions. Ennis (2016) lists 14 philosophically oriented scholarly definitions and three dictionary definitions. Following Rawls (1971), who distinguished his conception of justice from a utilitarian conception but regarded them as rival conceptions of the same concept, Ennis maintains that the 17 definitions are different conceptions of the same concept. Rawls articulated the shared concept of justice as

a characteristic set of principles for assigning basic rights and duties and for determining… the proper distribution of the benefits and burdens of social cooperation. (Rawls 1971: 5)

Bailin et al. (1999b) claim that, if one considers what sorts of thinking an educator would take not to be critical thinking and what sorts to be critical thinking, one can conclude that educators typically understand critical thinking to have at least three features.

• It is done for the purpose of making up one’s mind about what to believe or do.
• The person engaging in the thinking is trying to fulfill standards of adequacy and accuracy appropriate to the thinking.
• The thinking fulfills the relevant standards to some threshold level.

One could sum up the core concept that involves these three features by saying that critical thinking is careful goal-directed thinking. This core concept seems to apply to all the examples of critical thinking described in the previous section. As for the non-examples, their exclusion depends on construing careful thinking as excluding jumping immediately to conclusions, suspending judgment no matter how strong the evidence, reasoning from an unquestioned ideological or religious perspective, and routinely using an algorithm to answer a question.

If the core of critical thinking is careful goal-directed thinking, conceptions of it can vary according to its presumed scope, its presumed goal, one’s criteria and threshold for being careful, and the thinking component on which one focuses. As to its scope, some conceptions (e.g., Dewey 1910, 1933) restrict it to constructive thinking on the basis of one’s own observations and experiments, others (e.g., Ennis 1962; Fisher & Scriven 1997; Johnson 1992) to appraisal of the products of such thinking. Ennis (1991) and Bailin et al. (1999b) take it to cover both construction and appraisal. As to its goal, some conceptions restrict it to forming a judgment (Dewey 1910, 1933; Lipman 1987; Facione 1990a). Others allow for actions as well as beliefs as the end point of a process of critical thinking (Ennis 1991; Bailin et al. 1999b). As to the criteria and threshold for being careful, definitions vary in the term used to indicate that critical thinking satisfies certain norms: “intellectually disciplined” (Scriven & Paul 1987), “reasonable” (Ennis 1991), “skillful” (Lipman 1987), “skilled” (Fisher & Scriven 1997), “careful” (Bailin & Battersby 2009). Some definitions specify these norms, referring variously to “consideration of any belief or supposed form of knowledge in the light of the grounds that support it and the further conclusions to which it tends” (Dewey 1910, 1933); “the methods of logical inquiry and reasoning” (Glaser 1941); “conceptualizing, applying, analyzing, synthesizing, and/or evaluating information gathered from, or generated by, observation, experience, reflection, reasoning, or communication” (Scriven & Paul 1987); the requirement that “it is sensitive to context, relies on criteria, and is self-correcting” (Lipman 1987); “evidential, conceptual, methodological, criteriological, or contextual considerations” (Facione 1990a); and “plus-minus considerations of the product in terms of appropriate standards (or criteria)” (Johnson 1992). Stanovich and Stanovich (2010) propose to ground the concept of critical thinking in the concept of rationality, which they understand as combining epistemic rationality (fitting one’s beliefs to the world) and instrumental rationality (optimizing goal fulfillment); a critical thinker, in their view, is someone with “a propensity to override suboptimal responses from the autonomous mind” (2010: 227). These variant specifications of norms for critical thinking are not necessarily incompatible with one another, and in any case presuppose the core notion of thinking carefully. As to the thinking component singled out, some definitions focus on suspension of judgment during the thinking (Dewey 1910; McPeck 1981), others on inquiry while judgment is suspended (Bailin & Battersby 2009, 2021), others on the resulting judgment (Facione 1990a), and still others on responsiveness to reasons (Siegel 1988). Kuhn (2019) takes critical thinking to be more a dialogic practice of advancing and responding to arguments than an individual ability.

In educational contexts, a definition of critical thinking is a “programmatic definition” (Scheffler 1960: 19). It expresses a practical program for achieving an educational goal. For this purpose, a one-sentence formulaic definition is much less useful than articulation of a critical thinking process, with criteria and standards for the kinds of thinking that the process may involve. The real educational goal is recognition, adoption and implementation by students of those criteria and standards. That adoption and implementation in turn consists in acquiring the knowledge, abilities and dispositions of a critical thinker.

Conceptions of critical thinking generally do not include moral integrity as part of the concept. Dewey, for example, took critical thinking to be the ultimate intellectual goal of education, but distinguished it from the development of social cooperation among school children, which he took to be the central moral goal. Ennis (1996, 2011) added to his previous list of critical thinking dispositions a group of dispositions to care about the dignity and worth of every person, which he described as a “correlative” (1996) disposition without which critical thinking would be less valuable and perhaps harmful. An educational program that aimed at developing critical thinking but not the correlative disposition to care about the dignity and worth of every person, he asserted, “would be deficient and perhaps dangerous” (Ennis 1996: 172).

Dewey thought that education for reflective thinking would be of value to both the individual and society; recognition in educational practice of the kinship to the scientific attitude of children’s native curiosity, fertile imagination and love of experimental inquiry “would make for individual happiness and the reduction of social waste” (Dewey 1910: iii). Schools participating in the Eight-Year Study took development of the habit of reflective thinking and skill in solving problems as a means to leading young people to understand, appreciate and live the democratic way of life characteristic of the United States (Aikin 1942: 17–18, 81). Harvey Siegel (1988: 55–61) has offered four considerations in support of adopting critical thinking as an educational ideal. (1) Respect for persons requires that schools and teachers honour students’ demands for reasons and explanations, deal with students honestly, and recognize the need to confront students’ independent judgment; these requirements concern the manner in which teachers treat students. (2) Education has the task of preparing children to be successful adults, a task that requires development of their self-sufficiency. (3) Education should initiate children into the rational traditions in such fields as history, science and mathematics. (4) Education should prepare children to become democratic citizens, which requires reasoned procedures and critical talents and attitudes. To supplement these considerations, Siegel (1988: 62–90) responds to two objections: the ideology objection that adoption of any educational ideal requires a prior ideological commitment and the indoctrination objection that cultivation of critical thinking cannot escape being a form of indoctrination.

Despite the diversity of our 11 examples, one can recognize a common pattern. Dewey analyzed it as consisting of five phases:

• suggestions , in which the mind leaps forward to a possible solution;
• an intellectualization of the difficulty or perplexity into a problem to be solved, a question for which the answer must be sought;
• the use of one suggestion after another as a leading idea, or hypothesis , to initiate and guide observation and other operations in collection of factual material;
• the mental elaboration of the idea or supposition as an idea or supposition ( reasoning , in the sense on which reasoning is a part, not the whole, of inference); and
• testing the hypothesis by overt or imaginative action. (Dewey 1933: 106–107; italics in original)

The process of reflective thinking consisting of these phases would be preceded by a perplexed, troubled or confused situation and followed by a cleared-up, unified, resolved situation (Dewey 1933: 106). The term ‘phases’ replaced the term ‘steps’ (Dewey 1910: 72), thus removing the earlier suggestion of an invariant sequence. Variants of the above analysis appeared in (Dewey 1916: 177) and (Dewey 1938: 101–119).

The variant formulations indicate the difficulty of giving a single logical analysis of such a varied process. The process of critical thinking may have a spiral pattern, with the problem being redefined in the light of obstacles to solving it as originally formulated. For example, the person in Transit might have concluded that getting to the appointment at the scheduled time was impossible and have reformulated the problem as that of rescheduling the appointment for a mutually convenient time. Further, defining a problem does not always follow after or lead immediately to an idea of a suggested solution. Nor should it do so, as Dewey himself recognized in describing the physician in Typhoid as avoiding any strong preference for this or that conclusion before getting further information (Dewey 1910: 85; 1933: 170). People with a hypothesis in mind, even one to which they have a very weak commitment, have a so-called “confirmation bias” (Nickerson 1998): they are likely to pay attention to evidence that confirms the hypothesis and to ignore evidence that counts against it or for some competing hypothesis. Detectives, intelligence agencies, and investigators of airplane accidents are well advised to gather relevant evidence systematically and to postpone even tentative adoption of an explanatory hypothesis until the collected evidence rules out with the appropriate degree of certainty all but one explanation. Dewey’s analysis of the critical thinking process can be faulted as well for requiring acceptance or rejection of a possible solution to a defined problem, with no allowance for deciding in the light of the available evidence to suspend judgment. Further, given the great variety of kinds of problems for which reflection is appropriate, there is likely to be variation in its component events. Perhaps the best way to conceptualize the critical thinking process is as a checklist whose component events can occur in a variety of orders, selectively, and more than once. These component events might include (1) noticing a difficulty, (2) defining the problem, (3) dividing the problem into manageable sub-problems, (4) formulating a variety of possible solutions to the problem or sub-problem, (5) determining what evidence is relevant to deciding among possible solutions to the problem or sub-problem, (6) devising a plan of systematic observation or experiment that will uncover the relevant evidence, (7) carrying out the plan of systematic observation or experimentation, (8) noting the results of the systematic observation or experiment, (9) gathering relevant testimony and information from others, (10) judging the credibility of testimony and information gathered from others, (11) drawing conclusions from gathered evidence and accepted testimony, and (12) accepting a solution that the evidence adequately supports (cf. Hitchcock 2017: 485).

Checklist conceptions of the process of critical thinking are open to the objection that they are too mechanical and procedural to fit the multi-dimensional and emotionally charged issues for which critical thinking is urgently needed (Paul 1984). For such issues, a more dialectical process is advocated, in which competing relevant world views are identified, their implications explored, and some sort of creative synthesis attempted.

If one considers the critical thinking process illustrated by the 11 examples, one can identify distinct kinds of mental acts and mental states that form part of it. To distinguish, label and briefly characterize these components is a useful preliminary to identifying abilities, skills, dispositions, attitudes, habits and the like that contribute causally to thinking critically. Identifying such abilities and habits is in turn a useful preliminary to setting educational goals. Setting the goals is in its turn a useful preliminary to designing strategies for helping learners to achieve the goals and to designing ways of measuring the extent to which learners have done so. Such measures provide both feedback to learners on their achievement and a basis for experimental research on the effectiveness of various strategies for educating people to think critically. Let us begin, then, by distinguishing the kinds of mental acts and mental events that can occur in a critical thinking process.

• Observing : One notices something in one’s immediate environment (sudden cooling of temperature in Weather , bubbles forming outside a glass and then going inside in Bubbles , a moving blur in the distance in Blur , a rash in Rash ). Or one notes the results of an experiment or systematic observation (valuables missing in Disorder , no suction without air pressure in Suction pump )
• Feeling : One feels puzzled or uncertain about something (how to get to an appointment on time in Transit , why the diamonds vary in spacing in Diamond ). One wants to resolve this perplexity. One feels satisfaction once one has worked out an answer (to take the subway express in Transit , diamonds closer when needed as a warning in Diamond ).
• Wondering : One formulates a question to be addressed (why bubbles form outside a tumbler taken from hot water in Bubbles , how suction pumps work in Suction pump , what caused the rash in Rash ).
• Imagining : One thinks of possible answers (bus or subway or elevated in Transit , flagpole or ornament or wireless communication aid or direction indicator in Ferryboat , allergic reaction or heat rash in Rash ).
• Inferring : One works out what would be the case if a possible answer were assumed (valuables missing if there has been a burglary in Disorder , earlier start to the rash if it is an allergic reaction to a sulfa drug in Rash ). Or one draws a conclusion once sufficient relevant evidence is gathered (take the subway in Transit , burglary in Disorder , discontinue blood pressure medication and new cream in Rash ).
• Knowledge : One uses stored knowledge of the subject-matter to generate possible answers or to infer what would be expected on the assumption of a particular answer (knowledge of a city’s public transit system in Transit , of the requirements for a flagpole in Ferryboat , of Boyle’s law in Bubbles , of allergic reactions in Rash ).
• Experimenting : One designs and carries out an experiment or a systematic observation to find out whether the results deduced from a possible answer will occur (looking at the location of the flagpole in relation to the pilot’s position in Ferryboat , putting an ice cube on top of a tumbler taken from hot water in Bubbles , measuring the height to which a suction pump will draw water at different elevations in Suction pump , noticing the spacing of diamonds when movement to or from a diamond lane is allowed in Diamond ).
• Consulting : One finds a source of information, gets the information from the source, and makes a judgment on whether to accept it. None of our 11 examples include searching for sources of information. In this respect they are unrepresentative, since most people nowadays have almost instant access to information relevant to answering any question, including many of those illustrated by the examples. However, Candidate includes the activities of extracting information from sources and evaluating its credibility.
• Identifying and analyzing arguments : One notices an argument and works out its structure and content as a preliminary to evaluating its strength. This activity is central to Candidate . It is an important part of a critical thinking process in which one surveys arguments for various positions on an issue.
• Judging : One makes a judgment on the basis of accumulated evidence and reasoning, such as the judgment in Ferryboat that the purpose of the pole is to provide direction to the pilot.
• Deciding : One makes a decision on what to do or on what policy to adopt, as in the decision in Transit to take the subway.

By definition, a person who does something voluntarily is both willing and able to do that thing at that time. Both the willingness and the ability contribute causally to the person’s action, in the sense that the voluntary action would not occur if either (or both) of these were lacking. For example, suppose that one is standing with one’s arms at one’s sides and one voluntarily lifts one’s right arm to an extended horizontal position. One would not do so if one were unable to lift one’s arm, if for example one’s right side was paralyzed as the result of a stroke. Nor would one do so if one were unwilling to lift one’s arm, if for example one were participating in a street demonstration at which a white supremacist was urging the crowd to lift their right arm in a Nazi salute and one were unwilling to express support in this way for the racist Nazi ideology. The same analysis applies to a voluntary mental process of thinking critically. It requires both willingness and ability to think critically, including willingness and ability to perform each of the mental acts that compose the process and to coordinate those acts in a sequence that is directed at resolving the initiating perplexity.

Consider willingness first. We can identify causal contributors to willingness to think critically by considering factors that would cause a person who was able to think critically about an issue nevertheless not to do so (Hamby 2014). For each factor, the opposite condition thus contributes causally to willingness to think critically on a particular occasion. For example, people who habitually jump to conclusions without considering alternatives will not think critically about issues that arise, even if they have the required abilities. The contrary condition of willingness to suspend judgment is thus a causal contributor to thinking critically.

Now consider ability. In contrast to the ability to move one’s arm, which can be completely absent because a stroke has left the arm paralyzed, the ability to think critically is a developed ability, whose absence is not a complete absence of ability to think but absence of ability to think well. We can identify the ability to think well directly, in terms of the norms and standards for good thinking. In general, to be able do well the thinking activities that can be components of a critical thinking process, one needs to know the concepts and principles that characterize their good performance, to recognize in particular cases that the concepts and principles apply, and to apply them. The knowledge, recognition and application may be procedural rather than declarative. It may be domain-specific rather than widely applicable, and in either case may need subject-matter knowledge, sometimes of a deep kind.

Reflections of the sort illustrated by the previous two paragraphs have led scholars to identify the knowledge, abilities and dispositions of a “critical thinker”, i.e., someone who thinks critically whenever it is appropriate to do so. We turn now to these three types of causal contributors to thinking critically. We start with dispositions, since arguably these are the most powerful contributors to being a critical thinker, can be fostered at an early stage of a child’s development, and are susceptible to general improvement (Glaser 1941: 175)

8. Critical Thinking Dispositions

Educational researchers use the term ‘dispositions’ broadly for the habits of mind and attitudes that contribute causally to being a critical thinker. Some writers (e.g., Paul & Elder 2006; Hamby 2014; Bailin & Battersby 2016a) propose to use the term ‘virtues’ for this dimension of a critical thinker. The virtues in question, although they are virtues of character, concern the person’s ways of thinking rather than the person’s ways of behaving towards others. They are not moral virtues but intellectual virtues, of the sort articulated by Zagzebski (1996) and discussed by Turri, Alfano, and Greco (2017).

On a realistic conception, thinking dispositions or intellectual virtues are real properties of thinkers. They are general tendencies, propensities, or inclinations to think in particular ways in particular circumstances, and can be genuinely explanatory (Siegel 1999). Sceptics argue that there is no evidence for a specific mental basis for the habits of mind that contribute to thinking critically, and that it is pedagogically misleading to posit such a basis (Bailin et al. 1999a). Whatever their status, critical thinking dispositions need motivation for their initial formation in a child—motivation that may be external or internal. As children develop, the force of habit will gradually become important in sustaining the disposition (Nieto & Valenzuela 2012). Mere force of habit, however, is unlikely to sustain critical thinking dispositions. Critical thinkers must value and enjoy using their knowledge and abilities to think things through for themselves. They must be committed to, and lovers of, inquiry.

A person may have a critical thinking disposition with respect to only some kinds of issues. For example, one could be open-minded about scientific issues but not about religious issues. Similarly, one could be confident in one’s ability to reason about the theological implications of the existence of evil in the world but not in one’s ability to reason about the best design for a guided ballistic missile.

Facione (1990a: 25) divides “affective dispositions” of critical thinking into approaches to life and living in general and approaches to specific issues, questions or problems. Adapting this distinction, one can usefully divide critical thinking dispositions into initiating dispositions (those that contribute causally to starting to think critically about an issue) and internal dispositions (those that contribute causally to doing a good job of thinking critically once one has started). The two categories are not mutually exclusive. For example, open-mindedness, in the sense of willingness to consider alternative points of view to one’s own, is both an initiating and an internal disposition.

Using the strategy of considering factors that would block people with the ability to think critically from doing so, we can identify as initiating dispositions for thinking critically attentiveness, a habit of inquiry, self-confidence, courage, open-mindedness, willingness to suspend judgment, trust in reason, wanting evidence for one’s beliefs, and seeking the truth. We consider briefly what each of these dispositions amounts to, in each case citing sources that acknowledge them.

• Attentiveness : One will not think critically if one fails to recognize an issue that needs to be thought through. For example, the pedestrian in Weather would not have looked up if he had not noticed that the air was suddenly cooler. To be a critical thinker, then, one needs to be habitually attentive to one’s surroundings, noticing not only what one senses but also sources of perplexity in messages received and in one’s own beliefs and attitudes (Facione 1990a: 25; Facione, Facione, & Giancarlo 2001).
• Habit of inquiry : Inquiry is effortful, and one needs an internal push to engage in it. For example, the student in Bubbles could easily have stopped at idle wondering about the cause of the bubbles rather than reasoning to a hypothesis, then designing and executing an experiment to test it. Thus willingness to think critically needs mental energy and initiative. What can supply that energy? Love of inquiry, or perhaps just a habit of inquiry. Hamby (2015) has argued that willingness to inquire is the central critical thinking virtue, one that encompasses all the others. It is recognized as a critical thinking disposition by Dewey (1910: 29; 1933: 35), Glaser (1941: 5), Ennis (1987: 12; 1991: 8), Facione (1990a: 25), Bailin et al. (1999b: 294), Halpern (1998: 452), and Facione, Facione, & Giancarlo (2001).
• Self-confidence : Lack of confidence in one’s abilities can block critical thinking. For example, if the woman in Rash lacked confidence in her ability to figure things out for herself, she might just have assumed that the rash on her chest was the allergic reaction to her medication against which the pharmacist had warned her. Thus willingness to think critically requires confidence in one’s ability to inquire (Facione 1990a: 25; Facione, Facione, & Giancarlo 2001).
• Courage : Fear of thinking for oneself can stop one from doing it. Thus willingness to think critically requires intellectual courage (Paul & Elder 2006: 16).
• Open-mindedness : A dogmatic attitude will impede thinking critically. For example, a person who adheres rigidly to a “pro-choice” position on the issue of the legal status of induced abortion is likely to be unwilling to consider seriously the issue of when in its development an unborn child acquires a moral right to life. Thus willingness to think critically requires open-mindedness, in the sense of a willingness to examine questions to which one already accepts an answer but which further evidence or reasoning might cause one to answer differently (Dewey 1933; Facione 1990a; Ennis 1991; Bailin et al. 1999b; Halpern 1998, Facione, Facione, & Giancarlo 2001). Paul (1981) emphasizes open-mindedness about alternative world-views, and recommends a dialectical approach to integrating such views as central to what he calls “strong sense” critical thinking. In three studies, Haran, Ritov, & Mellers (2013) found that actively open-minded thinking, including “the tendency to weigh new evidence against a favored belief, to spend sufficient time on a problem before giving up, and to consider carefully the opinions of others in forming one’s own”, led study participants to acquire information and thus to make accurate estimations.
• Willingness to suspend judgment : Premature closure on an initial solution will block critical thinking. Thus willingness to think critically requires a willingness to suspend judgment while alternatives are explored (Facione 1990a; Ennis 1991; Halpern 1998).
• Trust in reason : Since distrust in the processes of reasoned inquiry will dissuade one from engaging in it, trust in them is an initiating critical thinking disposition (Facione 1990a, 25; Bailin et al. 1999b: 294; Facione, Facione, & Giancarlo 2001; Paul & Elder 2006). In reaction to an allegedly exclusive emphasis on reason in critical thinking theory and pedagogy, Thayer-Bacon (2000) argues that intuition, imagination, and emotion have important roles to play in an adequate conception of critical thinking that she calls “constructive thinking”. From her point of view, critical thinking requires trust not only in reason but also in intuition, imagination, and emotion.
• Seeking the truth : If one does not care about the truth but is content to stick with one’s initial bias on an issue, then one will not think critically about it. Seeking the truth is thus an initiating critical thinking disposition (Bailin et al. 1999b: 294; Facione, Facione, & Giancarlo 2001). A disposition to seek the truth is implicit in more specific critical thinking dispositions, such as trying to be well-informed, considering seriously points of view other than one’s own, looking for alternatives, suspending judgment when the evidence is insufficient, and adopting a position when the evidence supporting it is sufficient.

Some of the initiating dispositions, such as open-mindedness and willingness to suspend judgment, are also internal critical thinking dispositions, in the sense of mental habits or attitudes that contribute causally to doing a good job of critical thinking once one starts the process. But there are many other internal critical thinking dispositions. Some of them are parasitic on one’s conception of good thinking. For example, it is constitutive of good thinking about an issue to formulate the issue clearly and to maintain focus on it. For this purpose, one needs not only the corresponding ability but also the corresponding disposition. Ennis (1991: 8) describes it as the disposition “to determine and maintain focus on the conclusion or question”, Facione (1990a: 25) as “clarity in stating the question or concern”. Other internal dispositions are motivators to continue or adjust the critical thinking process, such as willingness to persist in a complex task and willingness to abandon nonproductive strategies in an attempt to self-correct (Halpern 1998: 452). For a list of identified internal critical thinking dispositions, see the Supplement on Internal Critical Thinking Dispositions .

Some theorists postulate skills, i.e., acquired abilities, as operative in critical thinking. It is not obvious, however, that a good mental act is the exercise of a generic acquired skill. Inferring an expected time of arrival, as in Transit , has some generic components but also uses non-generic subject-matter knowledge. Bailin et al. (1999a) argue against viewing critical thinking skills as generic and discrete, on the ground that skilled performance at a critical thinking task cannot be separated from knowledge of concepts and from domain-specific principles of good thinking. Talk of skills, they concede, is unproblematic if it means merely that a person with critical thinking skills is capable of intelligent performance.

Despite such scepticism, theorists of critical thinking have listed as general contributors to critical thinking what they variously call abilities (Glaser 1941; Ennis 1962, 1991), skills (Facione 1990a; Halpern 1998) or competencies (Fisher & Scriven 1997). Amalgamating these lists would produce a confusing and chaotic cornucopia of more than 50 possible educational objectives, with only partial overlap among them. It makes sense instead to try to understand the reasons for the multiplicity and diversity, and to make a selection according to one’s own reasons for singling out abilities to be developed in a critical thinking curriculum. Two reasons for diversity among lists of critical thinking abilities are the underlying conception of critical thinking and the envisaged educational level. Appraisal-only conceptions, for example, involve a different suite of abilities than constructive-only conceptions. Some lists, such as those in (Glaser 1941), are put forward as educational objectives for secondary school students, whereas others are proposed as objectives for college students (e.g., Facione 1990a).

The abilities described in the remaining paragraphs of this section emerge from reflection on the general abilities needed to do well the thinking activities identified in section 6 as components of the critical thinking process described in section 5 . The derivation of each collection of abilities is accompanied by citation of sources that list such abilities and of standardized tests that claim to test them.

Observational abilities : Careful and accurate observation sometimes requires specialist expertise and practice, as in the case of observing birds and observing accident scenes. However, there are general abilities of noticing what one’s senses are picking up from one’s environment and of being able to articulate clearly and accurately to oneself and others what one has observed. It helps in exercising them to be able to recognize and take into account factors that make one’s observation less trustworthy, such as prior framing of the situation, inadequate time, deficient senses, poor observation conditions, and the like. It helps as well to be skilled at taking steps to make one’s observation more trustworthy, such as moving closer to get a better look, measuring something three times and taking the average, and checking what one thinks one is observing with someone else who is in a good position to observe it. It also helps to be skilled at recognizing respects in which one’s report of one’s observation involves inference rather than direct observation, so that one can then consider whether the inference is justified. These abilities come into play as well when one thinks about whether and with what degree of confidence to accept an observation report, for example in the study of history or in a criminal investigation or in assessing news reports. Observational abilities show up in some lists of critical thinking abilities (Ennis 1962: 90; Facione 1990a: 16; Ennis 1991: 9). There are items testing a person’s ability to judge the credibility of observation reports in the Cornell Critical Thinking Tests, Levels X and Z (Ennis & Millman 1971; Ennis, Millman, & Tomko 1985, 2005). Norris and King (1983, 1985, 1990a, 1990b) is a test of ability to appraise observation reports.

Emotional abilities : The emotions that drive a critical thinking process are perplexity or puzzlement, a wish to resolve it, and satisfaction at achieving the desired resolution. Children experience these emotions at an early age, without being trained to do so. Education that takes critical thinking as a goal needs only to channel these emotions and to make sure not to stifle them. Collaborative critical thinking benefits from ability to recognize one’s own and others’ emotional commitments and reactions.

Questioning abilities : A critical thinking process needs transformation of an inchoate sense of perplexity into a clear question. Formulating a question well requires not building in questionable assumptions, not prejudging the issue, and using language that in context is unambiguous and precise enough (Ennis 1962: 97; 1991: 9).

Imaginative abilities : Thinking directed at finding the correct causal explanation of a general phenomenon or particular event requires an ability to imagine possible explanations. Thinking about what policy or plan of action to adopt requires generation of options and consideration of possible consequences of each option. Domain knowledge is required for such creative activity, but a general ability to imagine alternatives is helpful and can be nurtured so as to become easier, quicker, more extensive, and deeper (Dewey 1910: 34–39; 1933: 40–47). Facione (1990a) and Halpern (1998) include the ability to imagine alternatives as a critical thinking ability.

Inferential abilities : The ability to draw conclusions from given information, and to recognize with what degree of certainty one’s own or others’ conclusions follow, is universally recognized as a general critical thinking ability. All 11 examples in section 2 of this article include inferences, some from hypotheses or options (as in Transit , Ferryboat and Disorder ), others from something observed (as in Weather and Rash ). None of these inferences is formally valid. Rather, they are licensed by general, sometimes qualified substantive rules of inference (Toulmin 1958) that rest on domain knowledge—that a bus trip takes about the same time in each direction, that the terminal of a wireless telegraph would be located on the highest possible place, that sudden cooling is often followed by rain, that an allergic reaction to a sulfa drug generally shows up soon after one starts taking it. It is a matter of controversy to what extent the specialized ability to deduce conclusions from premisses using formal rules of inference is needed for critical thinking. Dewey (1933) locates logical forms in setting out the products of reflection rather than in the process of reflection. Ennis (1981a), on the other hand, maintains that a liberally-educated person should have the following abilities: to translate natural-language statements into statements using the standard logical operators, to use appropriately the language of necessary and sufficient conditions, to deal with argument forms and arguments containing symbols, to determine whether in virtue of an argument’s form its conclusion follows necessarily from its premisses, to reason with logically complex propositions, and to apply the rules and procedures of deductive logic. Inferential abilities are recognized as critical thinking abilities by Glaser (1941: 6), Facione (1990a: 9), Ennis (1991: 9), Fisher & Scriven (1997: 99, 111), and Halpern (1998: 452). Items testing inferential abilities constitute two of the five subtests of the Watson Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal (Watson & Glaser 1980a, 1980b, 1994), two of the four sections in the Cornell Critical Thinking Test Level X (Ennis & Millman 1971; Ennis, Millman, & Tomko 1985, 2005), three of the seven sections in the Cornell Critical Thinking Test Level Z (Ennis & Millman 1971; Ennis, Millman, & Tomko 1985, 2005), 11 of the 34 items on Forms A and B of the California Critical Thinking Skills Test (Facione 1990b, 1992), and a high but variable proportion of the 25 selected-response questions in the Collegiate Learning Assessment (Council for Aid to Education 2017).

Experimenting abilities : Knowing how to design and execute an experiment is important not just in scientific research but also in everyday life, as in Rash . Dewey devoted a whole chapter of his How We Think (1910: 145–156; 1933: 190–202) to the superiority of experimentation over observation in advancing knowledge. Experimenting abilities come into play at one remove in appraising reports of scientific studies. Skill in designing and executing experiments includes the acknowledged abilities to appraise evidence (Glaser 1941: 6), to carry out experiments and to apply appropriate statistical inference techniques (Facione 1990a: 9), to judge inductions to an explanatory hypothesis (Ennis 1991: 9), and to recognize the need for an adequately large sample size (Halpern 1998). The Cornell Critical Thinking Test Level Z (Ennis & Millman 1971; Ennis, Millman, & Tomko 1985, 2005) includes four items (out of 52) on experimental design. The Collegiate Learning Assessment (Council for Aid to Education 2017) makes room for appraisal of study design in both its performance task and its selected-response questions.

Consulting abilities : Skill at consulting sources of information comes into play when one seeks information to help resolve a problem, as in Candidate . Ability to find and appraise information includes ability to gather and marshal pertinent information (Glaser 1941: 6), to judge whether a statement made by an alleged authority is acceptable (Ennis 1962: 84), to plan a search for desired information (Facione 1990a: 9), and to judge the credibility of a source (Ennis 1991: 9). Ability to judge the credibility of statements is tested by 24 items (out of 76) in the Cornell Critical Thinking Test Level X (Ennis & Millman 1971; Ennis, Millman, & Tomko 1985, 2005) and by four items (out of 52) in the Cornell Critical Thinking Test Level Z (Ennis & Millman 1971; Ennis, Millman, & Tomko 1985, 2005). The College Learning Assessment’s performance task requires evaluation of whether information in documents is credible or unreliable (Council for Aid to Education 2017).

Argument analysis abilities : The ability to identify and analyze arguments contributes to the process of surveying arguments on an issue in order to form one’s own reasoned judgment, as in Candidate . The ability to detect and analyze arguments is recognized as a critical thinking skill by Facione (1990a: 7–8), Ennis (1991: 9) and Halpern (1998). Five items (out of 34) on the California Critical Thinking Skills Test (Facione 1990b, 1992) test skill at argument analysis. The College Learning Assessment (Council for Aid to Education 2017) incorporates argument analysis in its selected-response tests of critical reading and evaluation and of critiquing an argument.

Judging skills and deciding skills : Skill at judging and deciding is skill at recognizing what judgment or decision the available evidence and argument supports, and with what degree of confidence. It is thus a component of the inferential skills already discussed.

Lists and tests of critical thinking abilities often include two more abilities: identifying assumptions and constructing and evaluating definitions.

In addition to dispositions and abilities, critical thinking needs knowledge: of critical thinking concepts, of critical thinking principles, and of the subject-matter of the thinking.

We can derive a short list of concepts whose understanding contributes to critical thinking from the critical thinking abilities described in the preceding section. Observational abilities require an understanding of the difference between observation and inference. Questioning abilities require an understanding of the concepts of ambiguity and vagueness. Inferential abilities require an understanding of the difference between conclusive and defeasible inference (traditionally, between deduction and induction), as well as of the difference between necessary and sufficient conditions. Experimenting abilities require an understanding of the concepts of hypothesis, null hypothesis, assumption and prediction, as well as of the concept of statistical significance and of its difference from importance. They also require an understanding of the difference between an experiment and an observational study, and in particular of the difference between a randomized controlled trial, a prospective correlational study and a retrospective (case-control) study. Argument analysis abilities require an understanding of the concepts of argument, premiss, assumption, conclusion and counter-consideration. Additional critical thinking concepts are proposed by Bailin et al. (1999b: 293), Fisher & Scriven (1997: 105–106), Black (2012), and Blair (2021).

According to Glaser (1941: 25), ability to think critically requires knowledge of the methods of logical inquiry and reasoning. If we review the list of abilities in the preceding section, however, we can see that some of them can be acquired and exercised merely through practice, possibly guided in an educational setting, followed by feedback. Searching intelligently for a causal explanation of some phenomenon or event requires that one consider a full range of possible causal contributors, but it seems more important that one implements this principle in one’s practice than that one is able to articulate it. What is important is “operational knowledge” of the standards and principles of good thinking (Bailin et al. 1999b: 291–293). But the development of such critical thinking abilities as designing an experiment or constructing an operational definition can benefit from learning their underlying theory. Further, explicit knowledge of quirks of human thinking seems useful as a cautionary guide. Human memory is not just fallible about details, as people learn from their own experiences of misremembering, but is so malleable that a detailed, clear and vivid recollection of an event can be a total fabrication (Loftus 2017). People seek or interpret evidence in ways that are partial to their existing beliefs and expectations, often unconscious of their “confirmation bias” (Nickerson 1998). Not only are people subject to this and other cognitive biases (Kahneman 2011), of which they are typically unaware, but it may be counter-productive for one to make oneself aware of them and try consciously to counteract them or to counteract social biases such as racial or sexual stereotypes (Kenyon & Beaulac 2014). It is helpful to be aware of these facts and of the superior effectiveness of blocking the operation of biases—for example, by making an immediate record of one’s observations, refraining from forming a preliminary explanatory hypothesis, blind refereeing, double-blind randomized trials, and blind grading of students’ work. It is also helpful to be aware of the prevalence of “noise” (unwanted unsystematic variability of judgments), of how to detect noise (through a noise audit), and of how to reduce noise: make accuracy the goal, think statistically, break a process of arriving at a judgment into independent tasks, resist premature intuitions, in a group get independent judgments first, favour comparative judgments and scales (Kahneman, Sibony, & Sunstein 2021). It is helpful as well to be aware of the concept of “bounded rationality” in decision-making and of the related distinction between “satisficing” and optimizing (Simon 1956; Gigerenzer 2001).

Critical thinking about an issue requires substantive knowledge of the domain to which the issue belongs. Critical thinking abilities are not a magic elixir that can be applied to any issue whatever by somebody who has no knowledge of the facts relevant to exploring that issue. For example, the student in Bubbles needed to know that gases do not penetrate solid objects like a glass, that air expands when heated, that the volume of an enclosed gas varies directly with its temperature and inversely with its pressure, and that hot objects will spontaneously cool down to the ambient temperature of their surroundings unless kept hot by insulation or a source of heat. Critical thinkers thus need a rich fund of subject-matter knowledge relevant to the variety of situations they encounter. This fact is recognized in the inclusion among critical thinking dispositions of a concern to become and remain generally well informed.

Experimental educational interventions, with control groups, have shown that education can improve critical thinking skills and dispositions, as measured by standardized tests. For information about these tests, see the Supplement on Assessment .

What educational methods are most effective at developing the dispositions, abilities and knowledge of a critical thinker? In a comprehensive meta-analysis of experimental and quasi-experimental studies of strategies for teaching students to think critically, Abrami et al. (2015) found that dialogue, anchored instruction, and mentoring each increased the effectiveness of the educational intervention, and that they were most effective when combined. They also found that in these studies a combination of separate instruction in critical thinking with subject-matter instruction in which students are encouraged to think critically was more effective than either by itself. However, the difference was not statistically significant; that is, it might have arisen by chance.

Most of these studies lack the longitudinal follow-up required to determine whether the observed differential improvements in critical thinking abilities or dispositions continue over time, for example until high school or college graduation. For details on studies of methods of developing critical thinking skills and dispositions, see the Supplement on Educational Methods .

12. Controversies

Scholars have denied the generalizability of critical thinking abilities across subject domains, have alleged bias in critical thinking theory and pedagogy, and have investigated the relationship of critical thinking to other kinds of thinking.

McPeck (1981) attacked the thinking skills movement of the 1970s, including the critical thinking movement. He argued that there are no general thinking skills, since thinking is always thinking about some subject-matter. It is futile, he claimed, for schools and colleges to teach thinking as if it were a separate subject. Rather, teachers should lead their pupils to become autonomous thinkers by teaching school subjects in a way that brings out their cognitive structure and that encourages and rewards discussion and argument. As some of his critics (e.g., Paul 1985; Siegel 1985) pointed out, McPeck’s central argument needs elaboration, since it has obvious counter-examples in writing and speaking, for which (up to a certain level of complexity) there are teachable general abilities even though they are always about some subject-matter. To make his argument convincing, McPeck needs to explain how thinking differs from writing and speaking in a way that does not permit useful abstraction of its components from the subject-matters with which it deals. He has not done so. Nevertheless, his position that the dispositions and abilities of a critical thinker are best developed in the context of subject-matter instruction is shared by many theorists of critical thinking, including Dewey (1910, 1933), Glaser (1941), Passmore (1980), Weinstein (1990), Bailin et al. (1999b), and Willingham (2019).

McPeck’s challenge prompted reflection on the extent to which critical thinking is subject-specific. McPeck argued for a strong subject-specificity thesis, according to which it is a conceptual truth that all critical thinking abilities are specific to a subject. (He did not however extend his subject-specificity thesis to critical thinking dispositions. In particular, he took the disposition to suspend judgment in situations of cognitive dissonance to be a general disposition.) Conceptual subject-specificity is subject to obvious counter-examples, such as the general ability to recognize confusion of necessary and sufficient conditions. A more modest thesis, also endorsed by McPeck, is epistemological subject-specificity, according to which the norms of good thinking vary from one field to another. Epistemological subject-specificity clearly holds to a certain extent; for example, the principles in accordance with which one solves a differential equation are quite different from the principles in accordance with which one determines whether a painting is a genuine Picasso. But the thesis suffers, as Ennis (1989) points out, from vagueness of the concept of a field or subject and from the obvious existence of inter-field principles, however broadly the concept of a field is construed. For example, the principles of hypothetico-deductive reasoning hold for all the varied fields in which such reasoning occurs. A third kind of subject-specificity is empirical subject-specificity, according to which as a matter of empirically observable fact a person with the abilities and dispositions of a critical thinker in one area of investigation will not necessarily have them in another area of investigation.

The thesis of empirical subject-specificity raises the general problem of transfer. If critical thinking abilities and dispositions have to be developed independently in each school subject, how are they of any use in dealing with the problems of everyday life and the political and social issues of contemporary society, most of which do not fit into the framework of a traditional school subject? Proponents of empirical subject-specificity tend to argue that transfer is more likely to occur if there is critical thinking instruction in a variety of domains, with explicit attention to dispositions and abilities that cut across domains. But evidence for this claim is scanty. There is a need for well-designed empirical studies that investigate the conditions that make transfer more likely.

It is common ground in debates about the generality or subject-specificity of critical thinking dispositions and abilities that critical thinking about any topic requires background knowledge about the topic. For example, the most sophisticated understanding of the principles of hypothetico-deductive reasoning is of no help unless accompanied by some knowledge of what might be plausible explanations of some phenomenon under investigation.

Critics have objected to bias in the theory, pedagogy and practice of critical thinking. Commentators (e.g., Alston 1995; Ennis 1998) have noted that anyone who takes a position has a bias in the neutral sense of being inclined in one direction rather than others. The critics, however, are objecting to bias in the pejorative sense of an unjustified favoring of certain ways of knowing over others, frequently alleging that the unjustly favoured ways are those of a dominant sex or culture (Bailin 1995). These ways favour:

• reinforcement of egocentric and sociocentric biases over dialectical engagement with opposing world-views (Paul 1981, 1984; Warren 1998)
• distancing from the object of inquiry over closeness to it (Martin 1992; Thayer-Bacon 1992)
• indifference to the situation of others over care for them (Martin 1992)
• orientation to thought over orientation to action (Martin 1992)
• being reasonable over caring to understand people’s ideas (Thayer-Bacon 1993)
• being neutral and objective over being embodied and situated (Thayer-Bacon 1995a)
• doubting over believing (Thayer-Bacon 1995b)
• reason over emotion, imagination and intuition (Thayer-Bacon 2000)
• solitary thinking over collaborative thinking (Thayer-Bacon 2000)
• written and spoken assignments over other forms of expression (Alston 2001)
• attention to written and spoken communications over attention to human problems (Alston 2001)
• winning debates in the public sphere over making and understanding meaning (Alston 2001)

A common thread in this smorgasbord of accusations is dissatisfaction with focusing on the logical analysis and evaluation of reasoning and arguments. While these authors acknowledge that such analysis and evaluation is part of critical thinking and should be part of its conceptualization and pedagogy, they insist that it is only a part. Paul (1981), for example, bemoans the tendency of atomistic teaching of methods of analyzing and evaluating arguments to turn students into more able sophists, adept at finding fault with positions and arguments with which they disagree but even more entrenched in the egocentric and sociocentric biases with which they began. Martin (1992) and Thayer-Bacon (1992) cite with approval the self-reported intimacy with their subject-matter of leading researchers in biology and medicine, an intimacy that conflicts with the distancing allegedly recommended in standard conceptions and pedagogy of critical thinking. Thayer-Bacon (2000) contrasts the embodied and socially embedded learning of her elementary school students in a Montessori school, who used their imagination, intuition and emotions as well as their reason, with conceptions of critical thinking as

thinking that is used to critique arguments, offer justifications, and make judgments about what are the good reasons, or the right answers. (Thayer-Bacon 2000: 127–128)

Alston (2001) reports that her students in a women’s studies class were able to see the flaws in the Cinderella myth that pervades much romantic fiction but in their own romantic relationships still acted as if all failures were the woman’s fault and still accepted the notions of love at first sight and living happily ever after. Students, she writes, should

be able to connect their intellectual critique to a more affective, somatic, and ethical account of making risky choices that have sexist, racist, classist, familial, sexual, or other consequences for themselves and those both near and far… critical thinking that reads arguments, texts, or practices merely on the surface without connections to feeling/desiring/doing or action lacks an ethical depth that should infuse the difference between mere cognitive activity and something we want to call critical thinking. (Alston 2001: 34)

Some critics portray such biases as unfair to women. Thayer-Bacon (1992), for example, has charged modern critical thinking theory with being sexist, on the ground that it separates the self from the object and causes one to lose touch with one’s inner voice, and thus stigmatizes women, who (she asserts) link self to object and listen to their inner voice. Her charge does not imply that women as a group are on average less able than men to analyze and evaluate arguments. Facione (1990c) found no difference by sex in performance on his California Critical Thinking Skills Test. Kuhn (1991: 280–281) found no difference by sex in either the disposition or the competence to engage in argumentative thinking.

The critics propose a variety of remedies for the biases that they allege. In general, they do not propose to eliminate or downplay critical thinking as an educational goal. Rather, they propose to conceptualize critical thinking differently and to change its pedagogy accordingly. Their pedagogical proposals arise logically from their objections. They can be summarized as follows:

• Focus on argument networks with dialectical exchanges reflecting contesting points of view rather than on atomic arguments, so as to develop “strong sense” critical thinking that transcends egocentric and sociocentric biases (Paul 1981, 1984).
• Foster closeness to the subject-matter and feeling connected to others in order to inform a humane democracy (Martin 1992).
• Develop “constructive thinking” as a social activity in a community of physically embodied and socially embedded inquirers with personal voices who value not only reason but also imagination, intuition and emotion (Thayer-Bacon 2000).
• In developing critical thinking in school subjects, treat as important neither skills nor dispositions but opening worlds of meaning (Alston 2001).
• Attend to the development of critical thinking dispositions as well as skills, and adopt the “critical pedagogy” practised and advocated by Freire (1968 [1970]) and hooks (1994) (Dalgleish, Girard, & Davies 2017).

A common thread in these proposals is treatment of critical thinking as a social, interactive, personally engaged activity like that of a quilting bee or a barn-raising (Thayer-Bacon 2000) rather than as an individual, solitary, distanced activity symbolized by Rodin’s The Thinker . One can get a vivid description of education with the former type of goal from the writings of bell hooks (1994, 2010). Critical thinking for her is open-minded dialectical exchange across opposing standpoints and from multiple perspectives, a conception similar to Paul’s “strong sense” critical thinking (Paul 1981). She abandons the structure of domination in the traditional classroom. In an introductory course on black women writers, for example, she assigns students to write an autobiographical paragraph about an early racial memory, then to read it aloud as the others listen, thus affirming the uniqueness and value of each voice and creating a communal awareness of the diversity of the group’s experiences (hooks 1994: 84). Her “engaged pedagogy” is thus similar to the “freedom under guidance” implemented in John Dewey’s Laboratory School of Chicago in the late 1890s and early 1900s. It incorporates the dialogue, anchored instruction, and mentoring that Abrami (2015) found to be most effective in improving critical thinking skills and dispositions.

What is the relationship of critical thinking to problem solving, decision-making, higher-order thinking, creative thinking, and other recognized types of thinking? One’s answer to this question obviously depends on how one defines the terms used in the question. If critical thinking is conceived broadly to cover any careful thinking about any topic for any purpose, then problem solving and decision making will be kinds of critical thinking, if they are done carefully. Historically, ‘critical thinking’ and ‘problem solving’ were two names for the same thing. If critical thinking is conceived more narrowly as consisting solely of appraisal of intellectual products, then it will be disjoint with problem solving and decision making, which are constructive.

Bloom’s taxonomy of educational objectives used the phrase “intellectual abilities and skills” for what had been labeled “critical thinking” by some, “reflective thinking” by Dewey and others, and “problem solving” by still others (Bloom et al. 1956: 38). Thus, the so-called “higher-order thinking skills” at the taxonomy’s top levels of analysis, synthesis and evaluation are just critical thinking skills, although they do not come with general criteria for their assessment (Ennis 1981b). The revised version of Bloom’s taxonomy (Anderson et al. 2001) likewise treats critical thinking as cutting across those types of cognitive process that involve more than remembering (Anderson et al. 2001: 269–270). For details, see the Supplement on History .

As to creative thinking, it overlaps with critical thinking (Bailin 1987, 1988). Thinking about the explanation of some phenomenon or event, as in Ferryboat , requires creative imagination in constructing plausible explanatory hypotheses. Likewise, thinking about a policy question, as in Candidate , requires creativity in coming up with options. Conversely, creativity in any field needs to be balanced by critical appraisal of the draft painting or novel or mathematical theory.

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Inference is one of the most fundamental aspects of philosophical thinking, allowing us to draw conclusions from evidence and make reasoned arguments. In this article, we will explore the concept of inference and provide a primer on the various aspects of philosophical thinking. We'll look at how inference works, the different types of inferences, and how to use inferences to support your arguments. We'll also discuss how inference can help you think more critically and make more informed decisions.

By the end of this article, you should have a better understanding of inference and how it can be used to support your arguments. Inference can be defined as the process of drawing conclusions from data or evidence. It is a key part of philosophical thinking and is used to draw logical conclusions from evidence. There are three main types of inference: deductive , inductive , and abductive . Deductive inference involves drawing conclusions based on existing premises or facts.

This type of inference relies on logical principles such as modus ponens and modus tollens. Deductive inference is often used to draw conclusions about the truth or falsity of statements. Inductive inference involves drawing conclusions based on observed patterns or trends in data. This type of inference relies on probability and is often used to draw conclusions about the likelihood of certain outcomes or events occurring.

Abductive inference involves drawing conclusions based on incomplete data or incomplete information. This type of inference relies on creative thinking and is often used to draw conclusions about the causes or consequences of certain events or phenomena. Inference is an important part of philosophical thinking because it allows us to draw logical conclusions from evidence and data. By using inference, we can form reasoned arguments and understand the world around us in a more meaningful way. For example, by examining the evidence for a particular argument, we can use inference to determine whether or not the argument is valid.

We can also use inference to identify any gaps in our knowledge, which can then be addressed through further research and study. In addition, inference can help us to identify possible solutions to problems, by examining the evidence for different solutions and weighing up their pros and cons. Inference is also a useful tool for making decisions. By examining the evidence available and drawing logical conclusions, we can make informed decisions that are based on sound reasoning. For example, if we are considering a particular course of action, we can use inference to examine the potential outcomes and decide whether or not it is the right decision to take.

Implications for Philosophical Thinking

By drawing logical conclusions from evidence and forming reasoned arguments, we can gain a deeper understanding of the world and our place in it. Inference can be used to make deductions based on premises, assumptions, and data. This involves examining and interpreting evidence in order to draw conclusions and form reasoned arguments. In this way, inference helps us to make sense of the world and to identify patterns and connections that may not be immediately apparent.

Inference is also used to analyze arguments and identify flaws or inconsistencies in reasoning. By critically examining the evidence presented and looking for any logical gaps or contradictions, we can assess the validity of an argument. This is an important part of philosophical thinking as it helps us to identify fallacies and recognize misleading or false claims. Finally, inference can help us to think more deeply about the world around us by allowing us to consider different perspectives.

Types of Inference

Deductive inference, inductive inference.

Abductive inference is the process of drawing conclusions based on incomplete evidence. This kind of inference is often used when a scientist has an observation but not enough data to make a conclusive prediction. In this case, the scientist must use their best guess in order to explain what they have observed. In conclusion, inference is an invaluable tool for philosophical thinking.

It enables us to draw logical conclusions from evidence, form reasoned arguments, and understand the complexities of the world around us. By understanding the different types of inference and their implications for philosophical thinking, we can become better critical thinkers and arrive at more informed conclusions. Inference is a powerful tool that can help us make sense of the world, and it is an essential part of any philosophical inquiry.

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Critical Thinking and Evaluating Information

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What Is Critical Thinking?

Five simple strategies to sharpen your critical thinking, were critical thinking skills used in this video.

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Critical thinking is a complex process of deliberation that involves a wide range of skills and attitudes. It includes:

• identifying other people's positions,  arguments and conclusions 
• evaluating the evidence  for alternative points of view
• weighing up the opposing arguments  and evidence fairly
• being able to read between the lines,  seeing behind surfaces and identifying false or unfair assumptions
• recognizing techniques  used to make certain positions more appealing than others, such as false logic and persuasive devices
• reflecting on issues  in a structured way, bringing logic and insight to bear
• drawing conclusions  about whether arguments are valid and justifiable, based on good evidence and sensible assumptions
• presenting a point of view  in a structured, clear, well-reasoned way that convinces others

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A well-cultivated critical thinker:

• raises vital questions and problems, formulating them clearly and precisely;
• gathers and assesses relevant information, using abstract ideas to interpret it effectively  come to well-reasoned conclusions and solutions, testing them against relevant criteria and standards;
• thinks openmindedly within alternative systems of thought, recognizing and assessing, as need be, their assumptions, implications, and practical consequences; and
• communicates effectively with others in figuring out solutions to complex problems.

Critical thinking is, in short, self-directed, self-disciplined, self-monitored, and self-corrective thinking. It presupposes assent to rigorous standards of excellence and mindful command of their use. It entails effective communication and problem solving abilities and a commitment to overcome our native egocentrism and sociocentrism.  

(Taken from Richard Paul and Linda Elder,  The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools,  Foundation for Critical Thinking Press, 2008)

Source: criticalthinking.org

Is the sky really blue? That might seem obvious. But sometimes things are more nuanced and complicated than you think. Here are five strategies to boost your critical thinking skills. Animated by Ana Stefaniak. Made in partnership with The Open University.

Video Source: BBC Ideas

Video Source: Dr. Bachyrycz

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The Ladder of Inference

How to avoid jumping to conclusions.

By the Mind Tools Content Team

Have you ever been accused of "putting 2 and 2 together and making 5," meaning that the other person thinks you have jumped to the wrong conclusion?

In today's fast-moving world, we are always under pressure to act now, rather than spend time reasoning things through and thinking about the true facts.

Not only can this lead us to a wrong conclusion, but it can also cause conflict with other people, who may have drawn quite different conclusions on the same matter.

In a fast business environment, you need to make sure that your actions and decisions are founded on reality. Likewise, when you accept or challenge other people's conclusions, you need to be confident that their reasoning, and yours, is firmly based on the true facts. The "Ladder of Inference" helps you to achieve this.

Sometimes known as the "Process of Abstraction," this tool helps you to understand the thinking steps that can lead you to jump to wrong conclusions, and get you back to hard reality and facts.

In this article, we'll explain the tool in more detail, and show you how to use it, with an example.

Understanding the Ladder of Inference

The model was first put forward by organizational psychologist Chris Argyris and used by Peter Senge in "The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization." [1][2]

The Ladder of Inference describes the thinking process that we go through, usually without realizing it, to get from a fact to a decision or action. The thinking stages can be seen as rungs on a ladder and are shown in figure 1.

Take care that you don't confuse the Ladder of Inference with the Ladder of Abstraction . Though they have similar names, the two models are very different. While the Ladder of Inference is concerned with reasoning and making assumptions, the Ladder of Abstraction describes levels of thinking and language and can be used to improve your writing and speaking.

Figure 1: The Ladder of Inference

From Argyris, C., 'Overcoming Organizational Defenses: Facilitating Organizational Learning,' 1st Edition, © 1990. Printed electronically and reproduced by permission of Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. and Sons, Inc.

Starting at the bottom of the ladder, we have reality and facts. From there, we:

• Experience these selectively based on our beliefs and prior experience.
• Interpret what they mean.
• Apply our existing assumptions, sometimes without considering them.
• Draw conclusions based on the interpreted facts and our assumptions.
• Develop beliefs based on these conclusions.
• Take actions that seem "right" because they are based on what we believe.

This can create a vicious circle. Our beliefs have a big effect on how we select from reality, and can lead us to ignore the true facts altogether. Soon we are literally jumping to conclusions – by missing facts and skipping steps in the reasoning process.

By using the Ladder of Inference, you can learn to get back to the facts and use your beliefs and experiences to positive effect, rather than allowing them to narrow your field of judgment. Following this step-by-step reasoning can lead you to better results, based on reality, so avoiding unnecessary mistakes and conflict.

How to Use the Ladder of Inference

The Ladder of Inference helps you draw better conclusions, or challenge other people's conclusions based on true facts and reality. It can be used to help you analyze hard data, such as a set of sales figures, or to test assertions, such as "the project will go live in April." You can also use it to validate or challenge other people's conclusions.

The step-by-step reasoning process helps you to remain objective and, when working or challenging others, reach a shared conclusion without conflict.

Use the Ladder of Inference at any stage of your thinking process. The model may prove a useful aid to help you consider whether you're making the "right" conclusion, why you're making certain assumptions, and if you've considered all the facts.

Use the following steps to challenge your thinking using the Ladder of Inference:

1. Identify where on the ladder you are . Are you:

• Selecting your data or reality?
• Interpreting what it means?
• Making or testing assumptions?
• Forming or testing conclusions?
• Deciding what to do and why?

2. Analyze your reasoning . From your current "rung," work back down the ladder. This will help you trace the facts and reality that you are actually working with.

At each stage, ask yourself what you are thinking and why you are thinking it. As you analyze each step, you may need to adjust your reasoning. For example, you may need to change some assumptions or extend the field of data you have selected.

The following questions help you to work backward (coming down the ladder, starting at the top):

• Why have I chosen this course of action? Are there other actions I should have considered?
• What belief lead to that action? Was it well-founded?
• Why did I draw that conclusion? Is the conclusion sound?
• What am I assuming, and why? Are my assumptions valid?
• What data have I chosen to use and why? Have I selected data rigorously?
• What are the real facts that I should be using? Are there other facts I should consider?

When you are working through your reasoning, look out for rungs that you tend to jump. Do you tend to make assumptions too easily? Do you tend to select only part of the data? Note your tendencies so that you can learn to do that stage of reasoning with extra care in the future.

You may be jumping certain rungs of the ladder and forming beliefs illogically or too soon because of cognitive bias, something we are all susceptible to when making decisions. See our article to learn how to avoid it.

3. Work up the ladder again . With a new sense of reasoning (and perhaps a wider field of data and more considered assumptions), you can now work forward again – step-by-step – up the rungs of the ladder.

As you do this, try explaining your reasoning to a colleague or friend. This will help you check that your argument is sound.

If you are challenging someone else's conclusions, it is especially important to be able to explain your reasoning so that you can explain it to that person in a way that helps you to reach a shared conclusion and avoid conflict.

The regional sales manager, Alice, has just read the latest sales figures. Sales in Don's territory are down – again. He needs to be fired!

Most people would agree that the sales manager jumped to a rash conclusion here. So let's take a look at her thought process using the Ladder of Inference:

Since Don is new to sales, Alice believes that he can't possibly be as good as the "old-timers" who she has trained for years. So, when she reads the latest sales figures ( reality ), she immediately focuses on the data from Don's territory ( selected reality ). Sales are down on the previous months again ( interpreted reality ), and Alice assumes that the drop is entirely to do with Don's performance ( assumption ). She decides that Don hasn't been performing well ( conclusion ), so forms the opinion that he isn't up to the job ( belief ). She feels that firing Don is her best option ( action ).

Now let's challenge the sales manager's thinking using the Ladder of Inference:

To get back to facts and reality, we must challenge Alice's selection of data and her assumptions about Don's likely performance.

Although the figures are down in Don's territory, they have actually dipped less than in other areas. Don is actually a great salesman, but he and his colleagues have in fact been let down by new products being delayed, and by old products running out of stock.

Once the Sales Manager changes her assumptions, she will see the need to focus on solving the production issues – the real problem at hand.

Infographic

See The Ladder of Inference represented in an infographic .

[1] Argyris, C., 'Overcoming Organizational Defenses: Facilitating Organizational Learning,' 1st Edition, © 1990. Printed electronically and reproduced by permission of Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. and Sons, Inc.

[2] Senge, Peter M. The Fifth Discipline: the Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday/Currency, 1990.

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5.4 Types of Inferences

Learning objectives.

By the end of this section, you will be able to:

• Define deductive, inductive, and abductive inferences.
• Classify inferences as deductive, inductive, or abductive.
• Explain different explanatory virtues used in abductive reasoning.

Inferences can be deductive, inductive, or abductive. Deductive inferences are the strongest because they can guarantee the truth of their conclusions. Inductive inferences are the most widely used, but they do not guarantee the truth and instead deliver conclusions that are probably true. Abductive inferences also deal in probability.

Deductive Reasoning

Deductive inferences, which are inferences arrived at through deduction (deductive reasoning), can guarantee truth because they focus on the structure of arguments. Here is an example:

• Either you can go to the movies tonight, or you can go to the party tomorrow.
• You cannot go to the movies tonight.
• So, you can go to the party tomorrow.

This argument is good, and you probably knew it was good even without thinking too much about it. The argument uses “or,” which means that at least one of the two statements joined by the “or” must be true. If you find out that one of the two statements joined by “or” is false, you know that the other statement is true by using deduction. Notice that this inference works no matter what the statements are. Take a look at the structure of this form of reasoning:

• X or Y is true.
• X is not true.
• Therefore, Y is true.

By replacing the statements with variables, we get to the form of the initial argument above. No matter what statements you replace X and Y with, if those statements are true, then the conclusion must be true as well. This common argument form is called a disjunctive syllogism.

Valid Deductive Inferences

A good deductive inference is called a valid inference , meaning its structure guarantees the truth of its conclusion given the truth of the premises. Pay attention to this definition. The definition does not say that valid arguments have true conclusions. Validity is a property of the logical forms of arguments, and remember that logic and truth are distinct. The definition states that valid arguments have a form such that if the premises are true, then the conclusion must be true. You can test a deductive inference’s validity by testing whether the premises lead to the conclusion. If it is impossible for the conclusion to be false when the premises are assumed to be true, then the argument is valid.

Deductive reasoning can use a number of valid argument structures:

Disjunctive Syllogism :

• Therefore X.

Modus Ponens :

• If X, then Y.
• Therefore Y.

Modus Tollens :

• Therefore, not X.

You saw the first form, disjunctive syllogism, in the previous example. The second form, modus ponens, uses a conditional, and if you think about necessary and sufficient conditions already discussed, then the validity of this inference becomes apparent. The conditional in premise 1 expresses that X is sufficient for Y. So if X is true, then Y must be true. And premise 2 states that X is true. So the conclusion (the truth of Y) necessarily follows. You can also use your knowledge of necessary and sufficient conditions to understand the last form, modus tollens. Remember, in a conditional, the consequent is the necessary condition. So Y is necessary for X. But premise 2 states that Y is not true. Because Y must be the case if X is the case, and we are told that Y is false, then we know that X is also false. These three examples are only a few of the numerous possible valid inferences.

Invalid Deductive Inferences

A bad deductive inference is called an invalid inference . In invalid inferences, their structure does not guarantee the truth of the conclusion—that is to say, even if the premises are true, the conclusion may be false. This does not mean that the conclusion must be false, but that we simply cannot know whether the conclusion is true or false. Here is an example of an invalid inference:

• If it snows more than three inches, the schools are mandated to close.
• The schools closed.
• Therefore, it snowed more than three inches.

If the premises of this argument are true (and we assume they are), it may or may not have snowed more than three inches. Schools close for many reasons besides snow. Perhaps the school district experienced a power outage or a hurricane warning was issued for the area. Again, you can use your knowledge of necessary and sufficient conditions to understand why this form is invalid. Premise 2 claims that the necessary condition is the case. But the truth of the necessary condition does not guarantee that the sufficient condition is true. The conditional states that the closing of schools is guaranteed when it has snowed more than 3 inches, not that snow of more than 3 inches is guaranteed if the schools are closed.

Invalid deductive inferences can also take general forms. Here are two common invalid inference forms:

Affirming the Consequent:

• Therefore, X.

Denying the Antecedent:

• Therefore, not Y.

You saw the first form, affirming the consequent, in the previous example concerning school closures. The fallacy is so called because the truth of the consequent (the necessary condition) is affirmed to infer the truth of the antecedent statement. The second form, denying the antecedent, occurs when the truth of the antecedent statement is denied to infer that the consequent is false. Your knowledge of sufficiency will help you understand why this inference is invalid. The truth of the antecedent (the sufficient condition) is only enough to know the truth of the consequent. But there may be more than one way for the consequent to be true, which means that the falsity of the sufficient condition does not guarantee that the consequent is false. Going back to an earlier example, that a creature is not a dog does not let you infer that it is not a mammal, even though being a dog is sufficient for being a mammal. Watch the video below for further examples of conditional reasoning. See if you can figure out which incorrect selection is structurally identical to affirming the consequent or denying the antecedent.

The Wason Selection Task

Testing deductive inferences.

Earlier it was explained that logical analysis involves assuming the premises of an argument are true and then determining whether the conclusion logically follows, given the truth of those premises. For deductive arguments, if you can come up with a scenario where the premises are true but the conclusion is false, you have proven that the argument is invalid. An instance of a deductive argument where the premises are all true but the conclusion false is called a counterexample . As with counterexamples to statements, counterexamples to arguments are simply instances that run counter to the argument. Counterexamples to statements show that the statement is false, while counterexamples to deductive arguments show that the argument is invalid. Complete the exercise below to get a better understanding of coming up with counterexamples to prove invalidity.

Think Like a Philosopher

Using the sample arguments given, come up with a counterexample to prove that the argument is invalid. A counterexample is a scenario in which the premises are true but the conclusion is false. Solutions are provided below.

Argument 1:

• If an animal is a dog, then it is a mammal.
• Charlie is not a dog.
• Therefore, Charlie is not a mammal.

Argument 2:

• All desserts are sweet foods.
• Some sweet foods are low fat.
• So all desserts are low fat.

Argument 3:

• If Jad doesn’t finish his homework on time, he won’t go to the party.
• Jad doesn’t go to the party.
• Jad didn’t finish his homework on time.

When you have completed your work on the three arguments, check your answers against the solutions below.

Solution 1: Invalid. If you imagine that Charlie is a cat (or other animal that is not a dog but is a mammal), then both the premises are true, while the conclusion is false. Charlie is not a dog, but Charlie is a mammal.

Solution 2: Invalid. Buttercream cake is a counterexample. Buttercream cake is a dessert and is sweet, which shows that not all desserts are low fat.

Solution3: Invalid. Assuming the first two premises are true, you can still imagine that Jad is too tired after finishing his homework and decides not to go to the party, thus making the conclusion false.

Inductive Inferences

When we reason inductively, we gather evidence using our experience of the world and draw general conclusions based on that experience. Inductive reasoning (induction) is also the process by which we use general beliefs we have about the world to create beliefs about our particular experiences or about what to expect in the future. Someone can use their past experiences of eating beets and absolutely hating them to conclude that they do not like beets of any kind, cooked in any manner. They can then use this conclusion to avoid ordering a beet salad at a restaurant because they have good reason to believe they will not like it. Because of the nature of experience and inductive inference, this method can never guarantee the truth of our beliefs. At best, inductive inference generates only probable true conclusions because it goes beyond the information contained in the premises. In the example, past experience with beets is concrete information, but the person goes beyond that information when making the general claim that they will dislike all beets (even those varieties they’ve never tasted and even methods of preparing beets they’ve never tried).

Consider a belief as certain as “the sun will rise tomorrow.” The Scottish philosopher David Hume famously argued against the certainty of this belief nearly three centuries ago ([1748, 1777] 2011, IV, i). Yes, the sun has risen every morning of recorded history (in truth, we have witnessed what appears to be the sun rising, which is a result of the earth spinning on its axis and creating the phenomenon of night and day). We have the science to explain why the sun will continue to rise (because the earth’s rotation is a stable phenomenon). Based on the current science, we can reasonably conclude that the sun will rise tomorrow morning. But is this proposition certain ? To answer this question, you have to think like a philosopher, which involves thinking critically about alternative possibilities. Say the earth gets hit by a massive asteroid that destroys it, or the sun explodes into a supernova that encompasses the inner planets and incinerates them. These events are extremely unlikely to occur, although no contradiction arises in imagining that they could take place. We believe the sun will rise tomorrow, and we have good reason for this belief, but the sun’s rising is still only probable (even if it is nearly certain).

While inductive inferences are not always a sure thing, they can still be quite reliable. In fact, a good deal of what we think we know is known through induction. Moreover, while deductive reasoning can guarantee the truth of conclusions if the premises are true, many times the premises themselves of deductive arguments are inductively known. In studying philosophy, we need to get used to the possibility that our inductively derived beliefs could be wrong.

There are several types of inductive inferences, but for the sake of brevity, this section will cover the three most common types: reasoning from specific instances to generalities, reasoning from generalities to specific instances, and reasoning from the past to the future.

Reasoning from Specific Instances to Generalities

Perhaps I experience several instances of some phenomenon, and I notice that all instances share a similar feature. For example, I have noticed that every year, around the second week of March, the red-winged blackbirds return from wherever they’ve wintering. So I can conclude that generally the red-winged blackbirds return to the area where I live (and observe them) in the second week of March. All my evidence is gathered from particular instances, but my conclusion is a general one. Here is the pattern:

Instance 1 , Instance 2 , Instance 3  . . . Instance n --> Generalization

And because each instance serves as a reason in support of the generalization, the instances are premises in the argument form of this type of inductive inference:

Specific to General Inductive Argument Form:

• General Conclusion

Reasoning from Generalities to Specific Instances

Induction can work in the opposite direction as well: reasoning from accepted generalizations to specific instances. This feature of induction relies on the fact that we are learners and that we learn from past experiences and from one another. Much of what we learn is captured in generalizations. You have probably accepted many generalizations from your parents, teachers, and peers. You probably believe that a red “STOP” sign on the road means that when you are driving and see this sign, you must bring your car to a full stop. You also probably believe that water freezes at 32° Fahrenheit and that smoking cigarettes is bad for you. When you use accepted generalizations to predict or explain things about the world, you are using induction. For example, when you see that the nighttime low is predicted to be 30°F, you may surmise that the water in your birdbath will be frozen when you get up in the morning.

Some thought processes use more than one type of inductive inference. Take the following example:

Every cat I have ever petted doesn’t tolerate its tail being pulled. So this cat probably will not tolerate having its tail pulled.

Notice that this reasoner has gone through a series of instances to make an inference about one additional instance. In doing so, the reasoner implicitly assumed a generalization along the way. The reasoner’s implicit generalization is that no cat likes its tail being pulled. They then use that generalization to determine that they shouldn’t pull the tail of the cat in front of them now. A reasoner can use several instances in their experience as premises to draw a general conclusion and then use that generalization as a premise to draw a conclusion about a specific new instance.

Inductive reasoning finds its way into everyday expressions, such as “Where there is smoke, there is fire.” When people see smoke, they intuitively come to believe that there is fire. This is the result of inductive reasoning. Consider your own thought process as you examine Figure 5.5 .

Reasoning from Past to Future

We often use inductive reasoning to predict what will happen in the future. Based on our ample experience of the past, we have a basis for prediction. Reasoning from the past to the future is similar to reasoning from specific instances to generalities. We have experience of events across time, we notice patterns concerning the occurrence of those events at particular times, and then we reason that the event will happen again in the future. For example:

I see my neighbor walking her dog every morning. So my neighbor will probably walk her dog this morning.

Could the person reasoning this way be wrong? Yes—the neighbor could be sick, or the dog could be at the vet. But depending upon the regularity of the morning dog walks and on the number of instances (say the neighbor has walked the dog every morning for the past year), the inference could be strong in spite of the fact that it is possible for it to be wrong.

Strong Inductive Inferences

The strength of inductive inferences depends upon the reliability of premises given as evidence and their relation to the conclusions drawn. A strong inductive inference is one where, if the evidence offered is true, then the conclusion is probably true. A weak inductive inference is one where, if the evidence offered is true, the conclusion is not probably true. But just how strong an inference needs to be to be considered good is context dependent. The word “probably” is vague. If something is more probable than not, then it needs at least a 51 percent chance of happening. However, in most instances, we would expect to have a much higher probability bar to consider an inference to be strong. As an example of this context dependence, compare the probability accepted as strong in gambling to the much higher probability of accuracy we expect in determining guilt in a court of law.

Figure 5.6 illustrates three forms of reasoning are used in the scientific method. Induction is used to glean patterns and generalizations, from which hypotheses are made. Hypotheses are tested, and if they remain unfalsified, induction is used again to assume support for the hypothesis.

Abductive Reasoning

Abductive reasoning is similar to inductive reasoning in that both forms of inference are probabilistic. However, they differ in the relationship of the premises to the conclusion. In inductive argumentation, the evidence in the premises is used to justify the conclusion. In abductive reasoning, the conclusion is meant to explain the evidence offered in the premises. In induction the premises explain the conclusion, but in abduction the conclusion explains the premises. 

Inference to the Best Explanation

Because abduction reasons from evidence to the most likely explanation for that evidence, it is often called “inference to the best explanation.” We start with a set of data and attempt to come up with some unifying hypothesis that can best explain the existence of those data. Given this structure, the evidence to be explained is usually accepted as true by all parties involved. The focus is not the truth of the evidence, but rather what the evidence means.

Although you may not be aware, you regularly use this form of reasoning. Let us say your car won’t start, and the engine won’t even turn over. Furthermore, you notice that the radio and display lights are not on, even when the key is in and turned to the ON position. Given this evidence, you conclude that the best explanation is that there is a problem with the battery (either it is not connected or is dead). Or perhaps you made pumpkin bread in the morning, but it is not on the counter where you left it when you get home. There are crumbs on the floor, and the bag it was in is also on the floor, torn to shreds. You own a dog who was inside all day. The dog in question is on the couch, head hanging low, ears back, avoiding eye contact. Given the evidence, you conclude that the best explanation for the missing bread is that the dog ate it.

Detectives and forensic investigators use abduction to come up with the best explanation for how a crime was committed and by whom. This form of reasoning is also indispensable to scientists who use observations (evidence) along with accepted hypotheses to create new hypotheses for testing. You may also recognize abduction as a form of reasoning used in medical diagnoses. A doctor considers all your symptoms and any further evidence gathered from preliminarily tests and reasons to the best possible conclusion (a diagnosis) for your illness.

Explanatory Virtues

Good abductive inferences share certain features. Explanatory virtues are aspects of an explanation that generally make it strong. There are many explanatory virtues, but we will focus on four. A good hypothesis should be explanatory, simple , and conservative and must have depth .

To say that a hypothesis must be explanatory simply means that it must explain all the available evidence. The word “explanatory” for our purposes is being used in a narrower sense than used in everyday language. Take the pumpkin bread example: a person might reason that perhaps their roommate ate the loaf of pumpkin bread. However, such an explanation would not explain why the crumbs and bag were on the floor, nor the guilty posture of the dog. People do not normally eat an entire loaf of pumpkin bread, and if they do, they don’t eviscerate the bag while doing so, and even if they did, they’d probably hide the evidence. Thus, the explanation that your roommate ate the bread isn’t as explanatory as the one that pinpoints your dog as the culprit.

But what if you reason that a different dog got into the house and ate the bread, then got out again, and your dog looks guilty because he did nothing to stop the intruder? This explanation seems to explain the missing bread, but it is not as good as the simpler explanation that your dog is the perpetrator. A good explanation is often simple . You may have heard of Occam’s razor , formulated by William of Ockham (1287–1347), which says that the simplest explanation is the best explanation. Ockham said that “entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity” (Spade & Panaccio 2019). By “entities,” Ockham meant concepts or mechanisms or moving parts.

Examples of explanations that lack simplicity abound. For example, conspiracy theories present the very opposite of simplicity since such explanations are by their very nature complex. Conspiracy theories must posit plots, underhanded dealings, cover-ups (to explain the existence of alternative evidence), and maniacal people to explain phenomena and to further explain away the simpler explanation for those phenomena. Conspiracy theories are never simple, but that is not the only reason they are suspect. Conspiracy theories also generally lack the virtues of being conservative and having depth .

A conservative explanation maintains or conserves much of what we already believe. Conservativeness in science is when a theory or hypothesis fits with other established scientific theories and explanations. For example, a theory that accounts for some physical phenomenon but also does not violate Newton’s first law of motion is an example of a conservative theory. On the other hand, consider the conspiracy theory that we never landed on the moon. Someone might posit that the televised Apollo 11 space landing was filmed in a secret studio somewhere. But the reality of the first televised moon landing is not the only belief we must get rid of to maintain the theory. Five more manned moon landings occurred. Furthermore, the reality of the moon landings fits into beliefs about technological advancement over the next five decades. Many of the technologies developed were later adopted by the military and private sector (NASA, n.d.). Moreover, the Apollo missions are a key factor in understanding the space race of the Cold War era. Accepting the conspiracy theory requires rejecting a wide range of beliefs, and so the theory is not conservative.

A conspiracy theorist may offer alternative explanations to account for the tension between their explanation and established beliefs. However, for each explanation the conspiracist offers, more questions are raised. And a good explanation should not raise more questions than it answers. This characteristic is the virtue of depth . A deep explanation avoids unexplained explainers, or an explanation that itself is in need of explanation. For example, the theorist might claim that John Glenn and the other astronauts were brainwashed to explain the astronauts’ firsthand accounts. But this claim raises a question about how brainwashing works. Furthermore, what about the accounts of the thousands of other personnel who worked on the project? Were they all brainwashed? And if so, how? The conspiracy theorist’s explanation raises more questions than it answers.

Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence

Is it possible that our established beliefs (or scientific theories) could be wrong? Why give precedence to an explanation because it upholds our beliefs? Scientific thought would never have advanced if we deferred to conservative explanations all the time. In fact, the explanatory virtues are not laws but rules of thumb, none of which are supreme or necessary. Sometimes the correct explanation is more complicated, and sometimes the correct explanation will require that we give up long-held beliefs. Novel and revolutionary explanations can be strong if they have evidence to back them up. In the sciences, this approach is expressed in the following principle: Extraordinary claims will require extraordinary evidence. In other words, a novel claim that disrupts accepted knowledge will need more evidence to make it credible than a claim that already aligns with accepted knowledge.

Table 5.2 summarizes the three types of inferences just discussed.

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M18 Critical Thinking & Reasoning

Critical thinking and reasoning: logic and the role of arguments.

Critical thinkers tend to exhibit certain traits that are common to them. These traits are summarized in Table 6.1: [1]

Recall that critical thinking is an active mode of thinking. Instead of just receiving messages and accepting them as is, we consider what they are saying. We ask if messages are well-supported. We determine if their logic is sound or slightly flawed. In other words, we act on the messages before we take action based on them. When we enact critical thinking on a message, we engage a variety of skills including: listening, analysis, evaluation, inference and interpretation or explanation, and self-regulation [2]

Next, we will examine each of these skills and their role in critical thinking in greater detail. As you read through the explanation of and examples for each skill, think about how it works in conjunction with the others. It’s important to note that while our discussion of the skills is presented in a linear manner, in practice our use of each skill is not so straightforward. We may exercise different skills simultaneously or jump forward and backward.

“ Martha Stewart ” by nrkbeta.  CC-BY-SA .

Without an open-minded mind, you can never be a great success. ~ Martha Stewart

In order to understand listening, we must first understand the difference between listening and hearing . At its most basic, hearing refers to the physiological process of receiving sounds, while listening refers to the  psychological process of interpreting or making sense of those sounds.

Every minute of every day we are surrounded by hundreds of different noises and sounds. If we were to try to make sense of each different sound we would probably spend our day just doing this. While we may hear all of the noises, we filter out many of them. They pass through our lives without further notice. Certain noises, however, jump to the forefront of our consciousness. As we listen to them, we make sense of these sounds. We do this every day without necessarily thinking about the process. Like many other bodily functions, it happens without our willing it to happen.

Critical thinking requires that we consciously listen to messages. We must focus on what is being said – and not said. We must strive not to be distracted by other outside noises or the internal noise of our own preconceived ideas. For the moment we only need to take in the message.

Listening becomes especially difficult when the message contains highly charged information. Think about what happens when you try to discuss a controversial issue such as abortion. As the other person speaks, you may have every good intention of listening to the entire argument.

However, when the person says something you feel strongly about you start formulating a counter-argument in your head. The end result is that both sides end up talking past each other without ever really listening to what the other says.

Once we have listened to a message, we can begin to analyze it. In practice we often begin analyzing messages while still listening to them. When we analyze something, we consider it in greater detail, separating out the main components of the message. In a sense, we are acting like a surgeon on the message, carving out all of the different elements and laying them out for further consideration and possible action.

Let’s return to Shonda’s persuasive speech to see analysis in action. As part of the needs section of her speech, Shonda makes the following remarks:

Americans today are some of the unhealthiest people on Earth. It seems like not a week goes by without some news story relating how we are the fattest country in the world. In addition to being overweight, we suffer from a number of other health problems. When I was conducting research for my speech, I read somewhere that heart attacks are the number one killer of men and the number two killer of women. Think about that. My uncle had a heart attack and had to be rushed to the hospital. They hooked him up to a bunch of different machines to keep him alive. We all thought he was going to die. He’s ok now, but he has to take a bunch of pills every day and eat a special diet. Plus he had to pay thousands of dollars in medical bills. Wouldn’t you like to know how to prevent this from happening to you?

If we were to analyze this part of Shonda’s speech (see Table 6.2), we could begin by looking at the claims she makes. We could then look at the evidence she presents in support of these claims. Having parsed out the various elements, we are then ready to evaluate them and by extension the message as a whole.

When we evaluate something we continue the process of analysis by assessing the various claims and arguments for validity. One way we evaluate a message is to ask questions about what is being said and who is saying it. The following is a list of typical questions we may ask, along with an evaluation of the ideas in Shonda’s speech.

Is the speaker credible?

Yes. While Shonda may not be an expert per se on the issue of health benefits related to wine, she has made herself a mini-expert through conducting research.

Does the statement ring true or false based on common sense?

It sounds kind of fishy. Four or more glasses of wine in one sitting doesn’t seem right. In fact, it seems like it might be bordering on binge drinking.

Does the logic employed hold up to scrutiny?

Based on the little bit of Shonda’s speech we see here, her logic does seem to be sound. As we will see later on, she actually commits a few fallacies.

What questions or objections are raised by the message?

In addition to the possibility of Shonda’s proposal being binge drinking, it also raises the possibility of creating alcoholism or causing other long term health problems.

How will further information affect the message?

More information will probably contradict her claims. In fact, most medical research in this area contradicts the claim that drinking 4 or more glasses of wine a day is a good thing.

Will further information strengthen or weaken the claims?

Most likely Shonda’s claims will be weakened.

What questions or objections are raised by the claims?

In addition to the objections we’ve already discussed, there is also the problem of the credibility of Shonda’s expert “doctor.”

A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence. ~ David Hume

Inference and Interpretation or Explanation

“Imply” or “Infer”?

For two relatively small words, imply and infer seem to generate an inordinately large amount of confusion. Understanding the difference between the two and knowing when to use the right one is not only a useful skill, but it also makes you sound a lot smarter!

Let’s begin with imply. Imply means to suggest or convey an idea. A speaker or a piece of writing implies things. For example, in Shonda’s speech, she implies it is better to drink more red wine. In other words, she never directly says that we need to drink more red wine, but she clearly hints at it when she suggests that drinking four or more glasses a day will provide us with health benefits.

Now let’s consider infer. Infer means that something in a speaker’s words or a piece of writing helps us to draw a conclusion outside of his/her words. We infer a conclusion. Returning to Shonda’s speech, we can infer she would want us to drink more red wine rather than less. She never comes right out and says this. However, by considering her overall message, we can draw this conclusion.

Another way to think of the difference between imply and infer is: A speaker (or writer for that matter) implies. The audience infers.

Therefore, it would be incorrect to say that Shonda infers we should drink more rather than less wine. She implies this. To help you differentiate between the two, remember that an inference is something that comes from outside the spoken or written text.

The next step in critically examining a message is to interpret or explain the conclusions that we draw from it. At this phase we consider the evidence and the claims together. In effect we are reassembling the components that we parsed out during analysis. We are continuing our evaluation by looking at the evidence, alternatives, and possible conclusions.

Before we draw any inferences or attempt any explanations, we should look at the evidence provided. When we consider evidence we must first determine what, if any, kind of support is provided. Of the evidence we then ask:

• Is the evidence sound?
• Does the evidence say what thespeaker says it does?
• Does contradictory evidenceexist?
• Is the evidence from a validcredible source?

Seatbelt by M.Minderhoud, CC-BY-SA .

Even though these are set up as yes or no questions, you’ll probably find in practice that your answers are a bit more complex. For example, let’s say you’re writing a speech on why we should wear our seatbelts at all times while driving. You’ve researched the topic and found solid, credible information setting forth the numerous reasons why wearing a seatbelt can help save your life and decrease the number of injuries experienced during a motor vehicle accident. Certainly, there exists contradictory evidence arguing seat belts can cause more injuries. For example, if you’re in an accident where your car is partially submerged in water, wearing a seatbelt may impede your ability to quickly exit the vehicle. Does the fact that this evidence exists negate your claims? Probably not, but you need to be thorough in evaluating and considering how you use your evidence.

A man who does not think for himself does not think at all. ~ Oscar Wilde

Self-Regulation

The final step in critically examining a message is actually a skill we should exercise throughout the entire process. With self-regulation, we consider our pre-existing thoughts on the subject and any biases we may have. We examine how what we think on an issue may have influenced the way we understand (or think we understand) the message and any conclusions we have drawn. Just as contradictory evidence doesn’t automatically negate our claims or invalidate our arguments, our biases don’t necessarily make our conclusions wrong. The goal of practicing self-regulation is not to disavow or deny our opinions. The goal is to create distance between our opinions and the messages we evaluate.

Man thinking on bus , by IG8. CC-BY .

The Value of Critical Thinking

In public speaking, the value of being a critical thinker cannot be overstressed. Critical thinking helps us to determine the truth or validity of arguments. However, it also helps us to formulate strong arguments for our speeches. Exercising critical thinking at all steps of the speech writing and delivering process can help us avoid situations like Shonda found herself in. Critical thinking is not a magical panacea that will make us super speakers. However, it is another tool that we can add to our speech toolbox.

As we will learn in the following pages, we construct arguments based on logic. Understanding the ways logic can be used and possibly misused is a vital skill. To help stress the importance of it, the Foundation for Critical Thinking has set forth universal standards of reasoning. These standards can be found in Table 6.3.

When the mind is thinking, it is talking to itself. ~ Plato

Logic and the Role of Arguments

“Sharia Law Billboard” by Matt57. Public domain.

We use logic every day. Even if we have never formally studied logical reasoning and fallacies, we can often tell when a person’s statement doesn’t sound right. Think about the claims we see in many advertisements today—Buy product X, and you will be beautiful/thin/happy or have the carefree life depicted in the advertisement. With very little critical thought, we know intuitively that simply buying a product will not magically change our lives. Even if we can’t identify the specific fallacy at work in the argument (non causa in this case), we know there is some flaw in the argument.

By studying logic and fallacies we can learn to formulate stronger and more cohesive arguments, avoiding problems like that mentioned above. The study of logic has a long history. We can trace the roots of modern logical study back to Aristotle in ancient Greece. Aristotle’s simple definition of logic as the means by which we come to know anything still provides a concise understanding of logic. [3] Of the classical pillars of a core liberal arts education of logic, grammar, and rhetoric, logic has developed as a fairly independent branch of philosophical studies. We use logic everyday when we construct statements, argue our point of view, and in myriad other ways. Understanding how logic is used will help us communicate more efficiently and effectively.

Defining Arguments

When we think and speak logically, we pull together statements that combine reasoning with evidence to support an assertion, arguments. A logical argument should not be confused with the type of argument you have with your sister or brother or any other person. When you argue with your sibling, you participate in a conflict in which you disagree about something. You may, however, use a logical argument in the midst of the argument with your sibling. Consider this example:

“Man and Woman Arguing” by mzacha. morgueFile .

Brother and sister, Sydney and Harrison are arguing about whose turn it is to clean their bathroom. Harrison tells Sydney she should do it because she is a girl and girls are better at cleaning. Sydney responds that being a girl has nothing to do with whose turn it is. She reminds Harrison that according to their work chart, they are responsible for cleaning the bathroom on alternate weeks. She tells him she cleaned the bathroom last week; therefore, it is his turn this week. Harrison, still unconvinced, refuses to take responsibility for the chore. Sydney then points to the work chart and shows him where it specifically says it is his turn this week. Defeated, Harrison digs out the cleaning supplies.

Throughout their bathroom argument, both Harrison and Sydney use logical arguments to advance their point. You may ask why Sydney is successful and Harrison is not. This is a good question. Let’s critically think about each of their arguments to see why one fails and one succeeds.

Let’s start with Harrison’s argument. We can summarize it into three points:

• Girls are better at cleaning bathrooms than boys.
• Sydney is a girl.
• Therefore, Sydney should clean the bathroom.

Harrison’s argument here is a form of deductive reasoning, specifically a syllogism. We will consider syllogisms in a few minutes. For our purposes here, let’s just focus on why Harrison’s argument fails to persuade Sydney. Assuming for the moment that we agree with Harrison’s first two premises, then it would seem that his argument makes sense. We know that Sydney is a girl, so the second premise is true. This leaves the first premise that girls are better at cleaning bathrooms than boys. This is the exact point where Harrison’s argument goes astray. The only way his entire argument will work is if we agree with the assumption girls are better at cleaning bathrooms than boys.

Let’s now look at Sydney’s argument and why it works. Her argument can be summarized as follows:

1. The bathroom responsibilities alternate weekly according to the work chart.

2. Sydney cleaned the bathroom last week.

3. The chart indicates it is Harrison’s turn to clean the bathroom this week.

4. Therefore, Harrison should clean the bathroom.

“Decorative toilet seat” by Bartux~commonswikiv. Public domain.

Sydney’s argument here is a form of inductive reasoning. We will look at inductive reasoning in depth below. For now, let’s look at why Sydney’s argument succeeds where Harrison’s fails. Unlike Harrison’s argument, which rests on assumption for its truth claims, Sydney’s argument rests on evidence. We can define evidence as anything used to support the validity of an assertion. Evidence includes: testimony, scientific findings, statistics, physical objects, and many others. Sydney uses two primary pieces of evidence: the work chart and her statement that she cleaned the bathroom last week. Because Harrison has no contradictory evidence, he can’t logically refute Sydney’s assertion and is therefore stuck with scrubbing the toilet.

Defining Deduction

Deductive reasoning refers to an argument in which the truth of its premises guarantees the truth of its conclusions. Think back to Harrison’s argument for Sydney cleaning the bathroom. In order for his final claim to be valid, we must accept the truth of his claims that girls are better at cleaning bathrooms than boys. The key focus in deductive arguments is that it must be impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion to be false. The classic example is:

All men are mortal. Socrates is a man. Therefore, Socrates is mortal.

We can look at each of these statements individually and see each is true in its own right. It is virtually impossible for the first two propositions to be true and the conclusion to be false. Any argument which fails to meet this standard commits a logical error or fallacy. Even if we might accept the arguments as good and the conclusion as possible, the argument fails as a form of deductive reasoning.

A few observations and much reasoning lead to error; many observations and a little reasoning to truth. ~ Alexis Carrel

Another way to think of deductive reasoning is to think of it as moving from a general premise to a specific premise. The basic line of reasoning looks like this:

“Deductive Reasoning” CC-BY-NC-ND .

This form of deductive reasoning is called a syllogism. A syllogism need not have only three components to its argument, but it must have at least three. We have Aristotle to thank for identifying the syllogism and making the study of logic much easier. The focus on syllogisms dominated the field of philosophy for thousands of years. In fact, it wasn’t until the early nineteenth century that we began to see the discussion of other types of logic and other forms of logical reasoning.

It is easy to fall prey to missteps in reasoning when we focus on syllogisms and deductive reasoning. Let’s return to Harrison’s argument and see what happens.

Logic: the art of thinking and reasoning in strict accordance with the limitations and incapacities of the human misunderstanding. ~ Ambrose Bierce

“Applied Deductive Reasoning” CC-BY-NC-ND .

Considered in this manner, it should be clear how the strength of the conclusion depends upon us accepting as true the first two statements. This need for truth sets up deductive reasoning as a very rigid form of reasoning. If either one of the first two premises isn’t true, then the entire argument fails.

Let’s turn to recent world events for another example.

“US Invasion Deductive Reasoning Example” CC-BY-NC-ND .

In the debates over whether the United States should take military action in Iraq, this was the basic line of reasoning used to justify an invasion. This logic was sufficient for the United States to invade Iraq; however, as we have since learned, this line of reasoning also shows how quickly logic can go bad. We subsequently learned that the “experts” weren’t quite so confident, and their “evidence” wasn’t quite as concrete as originally represented.

Defining Induction

Inductive reasoning is often though of as the opposite of deductive reasoning; however, this approach is not wholly accurate. Inductive reasoning does move from the specific to the general. However, this fact alone does not make it the opposite of deductive reasoning. An argument which fails in its deductive reasoning may still stand inductively.

Unlike deductive reasoning, there is no standard format inductive arguments must take, making them more flexible. We can define an inductive argument as one in which the truth of its propositions lends support to the conclusion. The difference here in deduction is the truth of the propositions establishes with absolute certainty the truth of the conclusion. When we analyze an inductive argument, we do not focus on the truth of its premises. Instead we analyze inductive arguments for their strength or soundness.

“Inductive Reasoning Model” CC-BY-NC-ND .

Another significant difference between deduction and induction is inductive arguments do not have a standard format. Let’s return to Sydney’s argument to see how induction develops in action:

• Bathroom cleaning responsibilities alternate weekly according to the work chart.
• Sydney cleaned the bathroom last week.
• The chart indicates it is Harrison’s turn to clean the bathroom this week.
• Therefore, Harrison should clean the bathroom.

What Sydney does here is build to her conclusion that Harrison should clean the bathroom. She begins by stating the general house rule of alternate weeks for cleaning. She then adds in evidence before concluding her argument. While her argument is strong, we don’t know if it is true. There could be other factors Sydney has left out. Sydney may have agreed to take Harrison’s week of bathroom cleaning in exchange for him doing another one of her chores. Or there may be some extenuating circumstances preventing Harrison from bathroom cleaning this week.

You should carefully study the Art of Reasoning, as it is what most people are very deficient in, and I know few things more disagreeable than to argue, or even converse with a man who has no idea of inductive and deductive philosophy. ~ William John Wills

Let’s return to the world stage for another example. After the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center, we heard variations of the following arguments:

• The terrorists were Muslim (or Arab or Middle Eastern)
• The terrorists hated America.
• Therefore, all Muslims (or Arabs or Middle Easterners) hate America.

“1993 Word Trade Center bombing” by Bureau of ATF 1993 Explosives Incident Report. Public domain.

Clearly, we can see the problem in this line of reasoning. Beyond being a scary example of hyperbolic rhetoric, we can all probably think of at least one counter example to disprove the conclusion. However, individual passions and biases caused many otherwise rational people to say these things in the weeks following the attacks. This example also clearly illustrates how easy it is to get tripped up in your use of logic and the importance of practicing self-regulation.

• Adapted from Facione, P. A. (1990). Critical Thinking: A Statement of Expert Consensus for Purposes of Educational Assessment and Instruction, The Delphi Report (Executive Summary) . Millbrae, CA: California Academic Press. ↵
• Adapted from Facione, P. A. (1990). ↵
• Aristotle. (1989). Prior Analytics (Trans. Robin Smith). Cambridge, MA: Hackett Publishing. ↵
• Image of man and woman arguing. Authored by : mzacha. Provided by : MorgueFile. Located at : http://mrg.bz/ynkIUa . License : All Rights Reserved . License Terms : Free to remix, commercial use, no attribution required. http://www.morguefile.com/license/morguefile
• Chapter 6 Logic and the Role of Arguments. Authored by : Terri Russ, J.D., Ph.D.. Provided by : Saint Mary's College, Notre Dame, IN. Located at : http://publicspeakingproject.org/psvirtualtext.html . Project : The Public Speaking Project. License : CC BY-NC-ND: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives
• Martha Stewart nrkbeta. Authored by : nrkbeta. Located at : http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Martha_Stewart_nrkbeta.jpg . License : CC BY-SA: Attribution-ShareAlike
• Seat belt BX. Authored by : M.Minderhoud. Located at : http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Seat_belt_BX.jpg . License : CC BY-SA: Attribution-ShareAlike
• Man thinking in a bus. Authored by : IG8. Located at : https://www.flickr.com/photos/ig8/4295549232/ . License : CC BY: Attribution
• Sharia-Law-Billboard. Authored by : Matt57. Located at : http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sharia-law-Billboard.jpg . License : Public Domain: No Known Copyright
• Decorative toilet seat. Authored by : Bartux. Located at : http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Decorative_toilet_seat.jpg%20 . License : Public Domain: No Known Copyright
• Image of 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Provided by : Bureau of ATF 1993 Explosives Incident Report. Located at : http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:WTC_1993_ATF_Commons.jpg . License : Public Domain: No Known Copyright

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Distinguishing Between Inferences and Assumptions

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VALID AND SOUND ARGUMENTS

9.1 VALIDITY AND SOUNDNESS

Validity is a most important concept in critical thinking. A valid argument is one where the conclusion follows logically from the premises. But what does it mean? Here is the official definition:

An argument is valid if and only if there is no logically possible situation in which the premises are true and the conclusion is false.

To put it differently, whenever we have a valid argument, if the premises are all true, then the conclusion must also be true. What this implies is that if you use only valid arguments in your reasoning, as long as you start with true premises, you will never end up with a false conclusion. Here is an example of a valid argument:

This simple argument is obviously valid since it is impossible for the conclusion to be false when the premise is true. However, notice that the validity of the argument can be determined without knowing whether the premise and the conclusion are actually true or not. Validity is about the logical connection between the premises and the conclusion. We might not know how old Marilyn actually is, but it is clear the conclusion follows logically from the premise. The simple argument above will remain valid even if Marilyn is just a baby, in which case the premise and the conclusion are both false. Consider this argument also:

Again the argument is valid—if the ...

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Wireless Philosophy

Course: wireless philosophy   >   unit 1.

• Fundamentals: Introduction to Critical Thinking
• Introduction to Critical Thinking, Part 1
• Introduction to Critical Thinking, Part 2
• Fundamentals: Deductive Arguments
• Deductive Arguments
• Fundamentals: Abductive Arguments
• Necessary and Sufficient Conditions
• Instrumental vs. Intrinsic Value
• Implicit Premise
• Justification and Explanation
• Normative and Descriptive Claims
• Fundamentals: Validity
• Fundamentals: Truth and Validity

Fundamentals: Soundness

• Fundamentals: Bayes' Theorem
• Fundamentals: Correlation and Causation

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Understanding the Ladder of Inference: Navigating Cognitive Pitfalls

Dispute resolution education provides many tools for students to use in diagnosing and facilitating resolution of conflict. One such tool that I have used in my teaching for many years is known as the ladder of inference . In our daily lives, we often make decisions based on our perceptions and interpretations of events. However, these interpretations are not always accurate and can lead to misunderstandings and conflicts. The ladder of inference, a concept introduced by organizational psychologist Chris Argyris, sheds light on how our thoughts and beliefs can shape our actions and influence the outcomes of our interactions.

The ladder of inference illustrates the mental process we go through when making sense of the world around us. It consists of seven steps, each building upon the previous one, leading to a potentially biased conclusion. These steps are:

• Observation: We start by observing a situation or event. However, we cannot observe everything, so we select and focus on certain aspects based on our personal biases, experiences, and beliefs.
• Selecting Data: From the information we observe, we filter and select certain data points that seem relevant to us. This filtering process is influenced by our personal preferences and existing mental models.
• Adding Meaning: Once we have selected the data, we ascribe meaning to it based on our beliefs and assumptions. We interpret the data through the lens of our existing knowledge and past experiences.
• Making Assumptions: Next, we make assumptions based on the meaning we have assigned to the selected data. These assumptions may be unconscious and are often influenced by our biases and preconceived notions.
• Drawing Conclusions: Based on our assumptions, we draw conclusions about the situation. These conclusions may be incomplete or distorted due to the limited data we have considered, as well as the biases and assumptions we hold.
• Forming Beliefs: We adopt beliefs based upon the conclusions we have drawn from our current situation, which may be stronger if also based on conclusions drawn from past experience. Our beliefs are further reinforced and applied in similar future situations.
• Taking Action: Lastly, we take action based on our conclusions. Our actions are driven by our beliefs and assumptions, which may not accurately match the reality of the situation. This can lead to misunderstandings, conflicts, and ineffective decision-making.

Application of the ladder of influence is illustrated in the following example I frequently use when introducing this framework to students.

A corporate president, Alex, contacted a dispute resolution professional, Megan, for consultation regarding the president’s plan to fire a high-level sales employee who had been with the company for many years. When asked about the reason for the firing decision, Alex said, “Ed is just not committed to the company. He’s got to go.” Megan then asked, “Can you tell me what Ed has done, or not done, that leads you to conclude he is not committed to the company?” Alex responded, “He is constantly late in submitting his monthly and quarterly sales reports. I have spoken to him about this before, but the reports are still late. I can’t stand it when people are late! It’s just a sign of laziness, and a clear indication that he is not committed to his work, or to this company. I know he loves golf. He should be spending less time on the golf course and more time doing his work. He’s got to go.”

Megan then spoke with Ed. “Tell me how things are going with your work.” Ed responded, “Couldn’t be better! Things are great! In fact, I think I’m getting a promotion next week.” Megan then asked, “What makes you think you are going to be promoted?” Ed replied, “Well, the president wants to meet with me next week and I just have a feeling that I am going to be promoted. My sales have exceeded all expectations, and our customers love me. I have been the top salesperson nine of the past twelve months, and my customer satisfaction ratings are the highest in the company.” Megan asked about his work schedule, to which Ed replied, “My family accuses me of being a workaholic. I probably work 14-15 hours a day. I know it’s not fair to them, but I need to keep my customers happy. I do wish I had more time to myself; I love golf but haven’t had time to play in over a year. But that’s ok; I love my job, and whatever free time I do have, I spend with my family.”

Megan used the ladder of inference to help Alex and Ed see the circumstances more objectively and to help Alex avoid acting in a way that would have been extremely detrimental to the company and to Ed. First, Megan walked Ed down the ladder of inference in order to look more carefully at the data pool. Previously, Alex only selected data that supported his preconceived ideas (Ed was habitually late submitting his monthly and quarterly reports) and that also were consistent with his own personal preferences and preexisting mental models or biases (people who submit their work late are lazy, unreliable, and not committed to the company.) Alex attached meaning and made assumptions based on the limited data selected (Ed was purposefully ignoring his repeated instructions to submit his reports on time; and intentionally doing so because he was lazy, unreliable, distracted, and not committed to the company.) Alex further assumed that Ed’s late submission of reports was caused by his spending excessive time playing golf instead of completing his reports, because Alex had noticed several golf trophies, golf themed pictures and other golf paraphernalia in Ed’s office.

Megan helped Alex see, and consider, additional data that he previously ignored. In that regard, she asked Alex questions about the quality of Ed’s work, including comparative sales data, thoroughness, and detail of reports submitted, as well as customer satisfaction feedback. She also reviewed with Alex Ed’s past employee evaluations, which were always excellent. Not only had Alex initially ignored this information, but he had never even considered that it could be relevant to his analysis and decision. He was surprised to learn that Ed was top salesperson nine of the past twelve months. He was astonished by the glowing customer feedback the company consistently received about Ed. He was embarrassed by his erroneous assumption that Ed was slacking off in his work by spending excessive time playing golf. In short, Alex had been so focused on Ed’s late submission of reports that he failed to consider additional relevant information necessary for good judgment and sound decision making.

With this additional data selected and considered, Megan then walked Alex back up the ladder of inference resulting in a more objective analysis of the situation. It allowed Alex to consider the late submission of reports in the broader context of Ed’s overall performance. This did not cause Alex to set aside his need for Ed to submit his reports in a timely fashion, but it did prompt Alex to consider Ed’s shortcoming in the context of Ed’s overall performance, and thus provided a more effective framework for analyzing the situation.

Megan next met with Ed, and was able to walk him down the ladder of inference, helping him recognize additional data relevant to his late submission of reports. With this additional information now in mind, Megan walked Ed back up the ladder of inference, helping him see the importance of timely submission of reports in the broader context of the needs and attitudes of the corporate president. Not surprisingly, Ed was unaware of the critical importance of the information he had ignored, as well as questions he should have asked in order to understand the impact his late submission of reports had on the president’s evaluation of his employment. He had failed to grasp the urgency and importance of the president’s repeated reminders and, by focusing only on data supporting the positive side of his employment record, Ed made biased assumptions and reached erroneous conclusions that almost cost him his job. Walking him back up the ladder of inference, Ed gained more objective insight into his status with the company and his relationship with its president.

In the end, Ed was not fired; nor did he get a promotion at that time. In a joint meeting facilitated by Megan, Alex acknowledged the tremendous contribution Ed had made to the success of the company. He also was able to discuss with Ed, in a collaborative manner, the reasons why timely submission of his reports was so important. In that regard he learned that it was not only Alex’s personal preferences for punctuality, but also the fact that, when Ed submitted his reports late, Alex was often unable complete and submit his own reports to the Board of Directors, and sometimes lacked the full information he needed to discuss sales data at board meetings.

As seen in this example, the ladder of inference highlights the cognitive pitfalls we encounter in our decision-making processes. It emphasizes the importance of being aware of our own mental filters, biases, and assumptions. By understanding how our thought process influences our actions, we can improve our ability to make more objective and informed decisions.

Awareness of the ladder of inference allows us to challenge our assumptions and seek out additional information before drawing conclusions. It encourages open-mindedness, empathy, and the ability to consider multiple perspectives. By consciously climbing down the ladder, we can reduce misunderstandings, enhance communication, and build stronger relationships.

The ladder of inference serves as a valuable tool in understanding the complexities of human cognition and decision-making. By recognizing our tendency to ascend the ladder quickly, we can take steps to slow down, question our assumptions, and seek out additional information. This will lead to more accurate interpretations, effective decision-making, and improved relationships with others.

In a world where misunderstandings and conflicts are common, the ladder of inference provides a framework for developing self-awareness and critical thinking skills. By actively engaging with this concept, we can navigate the cognitive pitfalls that hinder our understanding and work towards building more harmonious relationships in a more productive society.

Learn more about dispute resolution programs at USC Gould .

• Argyris, C., & Schön, D. A. (1978). Organizational learning: A theory of action perspective. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. Argyris, C. (1991). Teaching smart people how to learn. Harvard Business Review, 69(3), 99-109.
• Senge, P. M. (1990). The fifth discipline: The art and practice of the learning organization. Doubleday/Currency.

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2.7: Validity and Soundness

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The idea of a valid argument is one of the most important concepts in critical thinking, so you should make sure you fully understand this topic. Basically, a valid argument is one where the premises entail the conclusion. What this means is that if the premises are true, the conclusion must also be true. So here is a valid argument with two premises and a conclusion:

• Moby Dick is a whale.
• All whales have fins.
• So, Moby Dick has fins.

This is another argument with just one premise and a conclusion:

• Barbie is 90 years old.
• So Barbie is older than 20.

In both of these arguments, if the premises are all true, there is no way that the conclusion will be false. So the arguments are indeed valid. Notice that the validity of the argument does not depend on whether the premise is in fact true. Consider the second argument above. Even if Barbie is actually only a ten-year-old, the argument is still valid. Validity only requires that when the premises are true, so is the conclusion. It depends only on the logical connection between the premises and the conclusion. It does not depend on their actual truth or falsity. A valid argument can have false premises and a false conclusion. A valid argument can also have a false premise but a true conclusion, as when Barbie is 30 years old.

This, however, is not a valid argument. It is invalid:

• Barbie is older than 20.
• So, Barbie is over 90 years old.

The argument is not valid because it is possible that the premise is true and the conclusion is false. For example, Barbie could be 21. Or she could be 80. These situations are counterexamples to the argument. Basically, a valid argument is an argument with no possible counterexamples.To sharpen your skills in evaluating arguments, it is important that you are able to discover and construct counterexamples. Giving a counterexample can help you convince other people that a certain argument is mistaken.

There are a few important points worth remembering:

• An invalid argument can have true premises and a true conclusion. In the previous argument, both the premise and the conclusion are true if Barbie is 99 years old. But remember that true premises and a true conclusion are not sufficient for validity, because the logical connection between them is missing. This means that an argument with true premises and conclusion can still be a bad argument.
• Notice that we are making a distinction between truth and validity. Statements (the premises and the conclusion) can be true or false, but they are not valid or invalid. Arguments might be valid or invalid, but they should never be described as true or false.
• It is possible to have a valid argument where the premises are false but the conclusion is true. Validity only guarantees that when you start with true premises, you end up with a conclusion that is true. So we should never say things like your assumptions are false, so even if you reasoning is logical your conclusion cannot be true.

Given a valid argument, all we know is that if the premises are true, so is the conclusion. But validity does not tell us whether the premises or the conclusion are true or not. If an argument is valid, and all the premises are true, then it is a sound argument. Of course, it follows from such a definition that a sound argument must also have a true conclusion.

In discussion, it would be nice if we can provide sound arguments to support an opinion. This means showing that our argument is valid, and that all the premises are true. Anyone who disagree would have to show that not all the premises are true, or the argument is not valid, or both.

To improve critical thinking, these are good habits to cultivate when it comes to argument analysis:

• Identify clearly the premises of an argument. Can we state the assumptions clearly?
• Check whether the assumptions are true or not.
• Evaluate the validity of the argument. Even if the premises are true, the logical reasoning of the argument can still be quite bad. The evaluation of the premises and the reasoning are two separate tasks.
• When arguing for a certain conclusion, always see if you can find more than one argument to support it. This would make your case more convincing. Being able to count the number of arguments in support of a position is an important thinking skill.

Hidden assumptions

When people give arguments sometimes certain assumptions are left implicit. Example:

• It is wrong to create animals with human DNA because it is unnatural.

This argument as it stands is not valid. Someone who gives such an argument presumably has in mind the hidden assumption that whatever that is unnatural is wrong. It is only when this assumption is added that the argument becomes valid.

Once this is pointed out, we can ask whether it is justified. We might argue for example,that there are plenty of things that are unnatural but are not usually regarded as wrong (e.g.cosmetic surgery, going to the Moon, contraception, etc). Pointing out the hidden assumption in an argument can help resolve or clarify the issues involved in a dispute.

In everyday life, many arguments have important hidden assumptions which have not been made explicit. It is part of good critical thinking to be able to identify these assumptions. One way to do this is to see what additional premises are needed to add to an argument to make it valid.

3 Activities to Enhance Your Inference in Critical Thinking

Practice drawing reasonable conclusions: critical thinking exercise 4.

Posted November 5, 2021 | Reviewed by Tyler Woods

At the beginning of 2021, I posted a piece on this blog asking if any readers wanted to develop their critical thinking as a kind of New Year’s resolution. In light of the positive feedback I received from that piece, I have since posted a series of additional exercises throughout the year—including one on analysis and one on evaluation . Today, I post a set of exercises on inference , which is a critical thinking skill dedicated to the gathering of credible, relevant, logical, balanced, and (as much it can be) unbiased information, for the purpose of drawing a reasonable conclusion (Dwyer, 2017; Facione, 1990).

Critical thinking is a metacognitive process, consisting of a number of skills and dispositions, that when used through self-regulatory reflective judgment, increases the chances of producing a logical conclusion to an argument or solution to a problem (Dwyer, 2017; Dwyer et al., 2016; Dwyer, Hogan & Stewart, 2014; 2015). The purpose of this particular activity set, consistent with the description of inference above, is to provide you with an opportunity to practice drawing reasonable conclusions. If you’re interested in enhancing your critical thinking skills , please start with the first set of exercises and then the second and third, before jumping into this next set below. Remember, when we are given opportunities to think about our thinking , we are engaging our metacognitive processes; and that’s a foundational part of critical thinking.

In the first activity of this exercise, you are asked to infer an appropriate conclusion for each of the three pairs of propositions provided.

Foreign holidays broaden the mind.

I’m going on holiday to Spain.

Conclusion: _____________________________________

The food in the Kebab Hut is terrible.

People don’t want to eat in a restaurant when the food is poor.

Violent television rots the mind.

I don’t like watching violent television.

In the second activity of this exercise, you are asked to gather or develop, a pair of propositions that will appropriately infer each of the three conclusions provided.

1. John’s house will fall down.

Proposition 1: _____________________________________

Proposition 2: _____________________________________

2. Red Rum will win the race.

3. Milk is healthy for humans.

In the third activity of this exercise, you are asked to infer an appropriate conclusion from the first two propositions on level 1. With this resulting conclusion, use the proposition provided on level 2 to infer another conclusion. Finally, use this conclusion, along with the proposition provided on level 3, to infer an overall conclusion. Essentially, what you are doing here is filling-in-the-blanks with your inferences of intermediate conclusions until you reach your overall conclusion.

Proposition: Students who achieve their academic goals report higher life satisfaction.

Proposition: Having higher levels of life satisfaction is associated with lower levels of anxiety .

Intermediate conclusion 1: _______________________________________________

Proposition: Students with lower levels of anxiety do better in exams.

Intermediate conclusion 2: _______________________________________________

Proposition: Students who do better in exams get better jobs and earn more money.

Overall conclusion: _____________________________________________________

I hope you enjoyed this set of activities to exercise your inference skills. Being able to draw reasonable conclusions is an important skill to practice and improve. Though we draw conclusions on a daily basis, quite often they aren't optimal (i.e., either wrong or not entirely accurate) or based on less than credible information. Though it's often the case that some such conclusions will not have a massive impact on decision-making in our lives (e.g., which outfit is best to wear today? ), why take the chance in situations where our conclusions truly do matter (e.g. what should I be looking for in a health insurance policy? )

Along with the completion of the previous exercises, you should be at a stage where you can recognize the cognitive processes necessary in the critical thinking process. However, just because you are able to analyze, evaluate, and infer doesn't ensure that you will approach scenarios that require critical thought. A reflective sensibility— reflective judgment —is also necessary to 'govern' the application of these skills. So, I hope you're looking forward to the final exercise set in this series - on reflective judgment, coming soon.

Dwyer, C.P. (2017). Critical thinking: Conceptual perspectives and practical guidelines.Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Dwyer, C. P., Harney, O., Hogan, M. J., & Kavanagh, C. (2016). Facilitating a Student-Educator Conceptual Model of Dispositions towards Critical Thinking through Interactive Management. Educational Technology & Research, doi: 10.1007/s11423-016-9460-7.

Dwyer, C. P., Hogan, M. J., & Stewart, I. (2014). An integrated critical thinking framework for the 21st century. Thinking Skills & Creativity, 12, 43–52.

Dwyer, C. P., Hogan, M. J., & Stewart, I. (2015). The evaluation of argument mapping-infused critical thinking instruction as a method of enhancing reflective judgment performance. Thinking Skills & Creativity, 16, 11–26.

Facione, P.A. (1990). The Delphi report: Committee on pre-college philosophy. Millbrae, CA: California Academic Press.

Christopher Dwyer, Ph.D., is a lecturer at the Technological University of the Shannon in Athlone, Ireland.

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• Key Terms and the Inference Continuum
• Bad Inferences – Fallacies and Biases
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The pages below offer an introduction and exploration of inferences, a.k.a. educated guesses. Using this vocabulary in the classroom allows students to explore a larger world of causation and prediction. They can then apply this power to literary, historical, and scientific claims and questions.

The program offered here is an attempt to teach students how to generate and analyze inferences and how to avoid relying on weak inferences when strong inferences are available.

Benefits of teaching inferences and related skills explicitly: 

1. It requires students to “zoom out,” to move beyond their initial intuitions or past impressions, and to search for a wide variety of causal explanations .

2. It reinforces the uncertainties of historical, literary, and scientific inquiry and opens the door to understanding biases and fallacies, quality and quantity of evidence, and other practical limitations.

3. It allows students to question openly without fear of getting “the right answer,” or trying to guess what’s in the teacher’s head.

4. It underscores the importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms and engines of history, e.g. Economics, Government, Social Groups, Religion, etc. and various analytic lenses of literature.

1. Key Skills and the Inference Continuum

2. Bad Inferences: Fallacies and Biases

3. Application: Inferences and History

Summary Points:

1. The ability to generate and evaluate inferences, both weak and strong, is a crucial skill and measure of intelligence. A vocabulary of inferences helps students increase both the quality and quantity of the inferences they generate, and allows them to measure the relative strengths and weaknesses of a given inference.

2. Like any skill, these abilities are plastic and current ability is simply a reflection of a student’s experience, prior knowledge, and practice.

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