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Scientific Method for Volcano Science Projects
![good hypothesis volcano Volcanic eruptions are a result of rapidly expanding gases.](https://img-aws.ehowcdn.com/360x267p/s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/contentlab.studiod/getty/cache.gettyimages.com/b9b6c8717f474f6bb6f307d8cb2f984f.jpg)
What Are the 8 Steps in Scientific Research?
Model volcanoes have been a standby of science fair projects for many students. The displacement of gas that is formed from the reaction has to go somewhere, typically out the opening to the environment. The scientific method gives scientists a form to follow when asking questions about an observation they make. The scientific method guides students through a thinking process in an attempt to explain what happens to a volcano during an explosion.
Observation
The first step in the scientific process is to make an observation about an event. A question typically arises from the process that needs to be answered. The question can be as simple as “Why does the eruption come out the top of the volcano?”
A hypothesis is an educated guess or prediction based upon past knowledge of other events. In a volcano project, a hypothesis may try to explain why a volcano erupts . This idea will be supported or discounted in the experimental phase of the scientific process. A well-formed hypothesis is one that can be measured either qualitatively or quantitatively.
Experimental Process
The next step is to design an experiment that mimics the conditions of the actual event. In the case of a volcano, the experiment is making a small controlled explosion. An explosion is basically a rapid expansion of gas in a specific amount of space. A mixture of baking soda and vinegar can give a rapid production of gas in a small area to result in an eruption. This step should also include the procedure for how the experiment will be carried out.
Conclusions
From the experimental process, the student should be able to draw conclusions about how an eruption occurs and the properties of an explosion. Rapid gas formation builds up and fills the reaction vessel and will come out of the weakest point. Since there should be an opening at the top of the volcano, the gas will come from this point.
Testing the Hypothesis
After the conclusion has been made, the hypothesis should be evaluated. If the hypothesis does not match the experimental data, then a new hypothesis should be made and tested. Scientists are continually changing and making new hypotheses based on ongoing research.
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- University of Rochester: Introduction to the scientific method
About the Author
Based out of Reno, Nev., Andrew Youngker has been writing since 2007. He writes articles for various websites, covering cooking and education. Youngker is pursuing a Bachelor of Science in biology from the University of Nevada, Reno.
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Find Your Next Great Science Fair Project! GO
How to Write Up an Elementary Volcano Science Project
Jennifer tolbert, 27 jun 2018.
![good hypothesis volcano How to Write Up an Elementary Volcano Science Project](https://classroom.synonym.com/public/images/logo-fallback.png)
The baking soda and vinegar volcano is a favorite science experiment among elementary students. It is important to make your presentation stand out from the other students at the science fair with an exceptional presentation. Also be sure to follow the teacher's guidelines or science fair guidelines to ensure that your score is as high as possible.
Write an introduction. The introduction is your first impression. Be sure it is concise and accurately introduces exactly what you studied in the experiment. This is also an excellent place to include fun facts, background information or general volcano information. The reaction is due to the properties of bases and acids and would be important to include in your experiment. Identify the variable that you are testing, such as the ratio to vinegar and baking soda. Or maybe you would like to see what other base-acid combinations would produce similar eruptions.
Write a hypothesis. Remember a hypothesis is an educated guess or prediction. Explain what you believe will happen during the experiment based upon your previous knowledge or research. The hypothesis should be written in a declarative sentence.
List your materials. Provide a detailed list of all of the materials you used when you conducted the experiment. Be sure to also include how much of each material was used. Explain whether you made your own volcano or bought a kit.
Write your procedure. The procedure should be written step-by-step, in detail. If someone else could easily reproduce your experiment, you have probably written a fairly clear procedure. Be detailed, accurate and logical in your explanation. Procedures are usually written in a numerical list format.
Explain your results. Be sure your results reflect exactly what you were testing. You can provide observations or measurements. If applicable, you can create a chart or graph to describe any numerical data you may have taken. You may want to describe what the eruptions looked like, how long they lasted or how explosive the reactions were.
Write a conclusion. Basically, sum up what you learned during the experiment. Say whether or not your hypothesis was correct. Point out patterns in your data and explain if they were consistent with your previous knowledge of the subject. Also, do not forget to relate how that information can be used in the real world. This would also be a good spot to place recommendations if there are changes you would make to the experiment.
- 1 Discovery Education: Science Fair Center
- 2 Science Buddies: Science Fair Project Final Report
About the Author
Jennifer Tolbert currently resides in Magnolia, Texas. She holds a Bachelor of Science in agricultural communications from Texas Tech University and a Master of Science from Texas A&M University. She has written several award-winning special sections as a marketing writer and is currently a special education teacher.
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Activities to Teach Students About Seashells
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Science News Explores
Study acid-base chemistry with at-home volcanoes.
Baking soda volcanoes are a fun demonstration, and with a few tweaks they can be an experiment, too
![good hypothesis volcano a family making a volcano at home](https://www.snexplores.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/1030_volcanoes_experiment-1028x579.jpg)
A few kitchen chemicals can give you an at home volcano. But you’re going to need more than one volcano for an experiment.
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By Bethany Brookshire
October 7, 2020 at 6:30 am
This article is one of a series of Experiments meant to teach students about how science is done, from generating a hypothesis and designing an experiment to analyzing the results with statistics. You can repeat the steps here and compare your results — or use this as inspiration to design your own experiment.
It’s a science fair staple: the baking soda volcano. This simple demonstration is easy to do. That clay mountain “smoking” in front of a poster board can be kind of sad, though. The whole thing looks like it was put together the morning of the fair.
But it’s not too difficult to turn this easy science demo into a science experiment. All that’s needed is a hypothesis to test — and more than one volcano.
A baking soda volcano’s foamy rush is the result of a chemical reaction between two solutions. One solution contains vinegar, dish soap, water and a little food coloring. The other is a mix of baking soda and water. Add the second solution to the first, stand back and watch what happens.
The reaction that occurs is an example of acid-base chemistry. Vinegar contains acetic acid . It has the chemical formula CH 3 COOH (or HC 3 H 2 O 2 ). When mixed with water, acetic acid loses a positively charged ion (H+). The positively charged protons in the water make the solution acidic. White vinegar has a pH of about 2.5.
Baking soda is sodium bicarbonate. It has the chemical formula NaHCO 3. It is a base , which means that when mixed with water, it loses a negatively charged hydroxide ion (OH-). It has a pH of about 8.
Acids and bases react together. The H+ from the acid and the OH- from the base come together to form water (H 2 O). In the case of vinegar and baking soda, this takes two steps. First the two molecules react together to form two other chemicals — sodium acetate and carbonic acid. The reaction looks like this:
NaHCO 3 + HC 2 H 3 O 2 → NaC 2 H 3 O 2 + H 2 CO 3
Carbonic acid is very unstable. It then breaks apart quickly into carbon dioxide and water.
H 2 CO 3 → H 2 O + CO 2
Carbon dioxide is a gas, which makes the water fizz like soda pop. If you add a little dish soap to your acid solution, the bubbles will catch in the soap. The reaction produces a big fwoosh of foam.
Acids and bases will react together until there are no excess H+ or OH- ions present. When all the ions of one type are all used up, the reaction is neutralized. This means that if you have a lot of vinegar, but very little baking soda (or vice versa), you’ll get a small volcano. Varying the ratio of ingredients can change the size of that reaction.
This leads to my hypothesis — a statement I can test. In this case, my hypothesis is that more baking soda will produce a larger explosion .
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Blowing it up
To test this, I need to make volcanoes with different amounts of baking soda while the rest of the chemical reaction remains the same. The baking soda is my variable — the factor in the experiment that I am changing.
Here’s the recipe for a basic baking soda volcano:
- In a clean, empty 2-liter soda bottle, mix 100 milliliters (mL) of water, 400mL of white vinegar and 10mL of dish soap. Add a few drops of food coloring if you want to make your explosion a fun color.
- Place the bottle outside, on a sidewalk, driveway or porch. (Do not put it on grass. This reaction is safe, but it will kill the grass. I learned this the hard way.)
- Mix together half a cup of baking soda and half a cup of water. Pour the mix into the 2-liter bottle as quickly as you can and stand back!
(Safety note: It’s a good idea to wear gloves, sneakers and eye protection such as glasses or safety goggles for this experiment. Some of these ingredients can be uncomfortable on your skin, and you don’t want to get them in your eyes.)
To turn this demonstration into an experiment, I’ll need to try this again, with three different amounts of baking soda. I started small — with just 10 mL, mixed with 40 mL of water. My middle dose was 50 mL of baking soda mixed with 50 mL of water. For my last amount, I used 100 mL of baking soda, mixed with about 50 mL of water. (Baking soda has a similar volume and mass, in that 10mL of baking soda weighs about 10 grams, and so on. This meant I could weigh the baking soda on a scale rather than have to measure it by volume.) I then made five volcanoes with each amount of baking soda, for a total of 15 volcanoes.
The explosion happens very quickly — too fast to mark its height accurately on a wall or yardstick. But once the eruption happens, the foam and water fall outside the bottle. By weighing the bottles before and after the reaction, and adding in the mass of the baking soda and water solution, I can calculate how much mass got ejected from each eruption. I could then compare the mass lost to show if more baking soda produced a larger explosion.
![good hypothesis volcano the 10 gram baking soda bottles bubbling](https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/680_volcanoes_experiment_10_grams_bs-675x450.jpg)
When I used only 10 grams of baking soda, the bottles lost 17 grams of mass on average. The eruptions were so small that most never made it out of the bottle. When I used 50 grams of baking soda, the bottles lost 160 grams of mass on average. And when I used 100 grams of baking soda, the bottles lost almost 350 grams of mass.
But that’s not quite the whole story. Because I added different amounts of baking soda and water to the bottles, there might not be as big of a difference here as I think. The extra mass from the 100-gram bottles, for instance, could just be because the reaction started out heavier.
To rule that out, I converted my numbers to the percent of mass lost. The 10-gram bottles lost only about three percent of their mass. The 50-gram bottles lost 25 percent of their mass, and the 100-gram bottles lost more than half of their mass.
![good hypothesis volcano a table showing all the data collected during the volcano experiment](https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/1030_volcanoes_experiment_data.jpg)
To confirm that these results are different, I need to run statistics. These are tests that will help me interpret my results. For this, I have three different amounts of baking soda that I need to compare to each other. With a test called a one-way analysis of variance (or ANOVA), I can compare the means (in this case, the average) of three or more groups. There are calculators on the internet where you can plug in your data to do this. I used this one .
![good hypothesis volcano a graph showing the total mass lost for each amount of baking soda used](https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/1030_volcanoes_experiment_total_mass_lost.jpg)
The test will give me a p value. This is a probability measure of how likely I would be to get a difference between these three groups as large as the one I have by chance alone. In general, scientists think of a p value of less than 0.05 (five percent probability) as statistically significant . When I compared my three baking soda amounts, my p value was less than 0.00001, or 0.001 percent. That’s a statistically significant difference that shows the amount of baking soda matters.
I also get an F ratio from this test. If this number is around one, it usually means that the variation between the groups is about what you would get by chance. An F ratio bigger than one, though, means the variation is more than you’d expect to see. My F ratio was 53, which is pretty good.
![good hypothesis volcano a graph showing the percentage of mass lost at each baking soda dose](https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/1030_volcanoes_experiment_mass_lost.jpg)
My hypothesis was that more baking soda will produce a larger explosion . The results here seem to agree with that.
Of course there are things that I could do differently next time. I could make sure that my bottle weights were all the same. I could use a high-speed camera to measure explosion height. Or I could try changing the vinegar instead of the baking soda.
I guess I’m just going to need to make more explosions.
- White vinegar (2 gallons) ($1.92)
- Food coloring: ($3.66)
- Nitrile or latex gloves ($4.24)
- Small digital scale ($11.85)
- Roll of paper towels ($0.98)
- Dish soap ($1.73)
- Glass beakers ($16.99)
- Baking soda (three boxes) ($0.46)
- Two-liter soda bottles (4) ($0.62)
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Big volcano science: needs and perspectives
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- Published: 12 February 2022
- Volume 84 , article number 20 , ( 2022 )
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- Paolo Papale ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5207-2124 1 &
- Deepak Garg 1
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Volcano science has been deeply developing during last decades, from a branch of descriptive natural sciences to a highly multi-disciplinary, technologically advanced, quantitative sector of the geosciences. While the progress has been continuous and substantial, the volcanological community still lacks big scientific endeavors comparable in size and objectives to many that characterize other scientific fields. Examples include large infrastructures such as the LHC in Geneva for sub-atomic particle physics or the Hubble telescope for astrophysics, as well as deeply coordinated, highly funded, decadal projects such as the Human Genome Project for life sciences. Here we argue that a similar big science approach will increasingly concern volcano science, and briefly describe three examples of developments in volcanology requiring such an approach, and that we believe will characterize the current decade (2020–2030): the Krafla Magma Testbed initiative; the development of a Global Volcano Simulator; and the emerging relevance of big data in volcano science.
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Introduction
Volcano science has deeply evolved during last decades. One of us (PP) presented perspectives for next decade developments at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meetings 2010 and 2020, which are summarized in Table 1 . As from that easy forecast, approaches based on statistics and probabilities have become progressively more widespread in volcanology: a search in the Web of Science shows that the number of entries responding to “volcano” and “probability” more than doubles from the first to the second decade of this century. Similarly, sharing resources, as well as sharing experience, is continuing to increase in relevance. Examples include the large investments from the European Commission in infrastructural developments such as EPOS, the European Plate Observing System ( www.epos-eu.org ), representing the platform for EU-level data accessibility and sharing in solid Earth, and the frame within which European geoscientists discuss and implement common development strategies; and other EU-level investments, facilitated through EPOS, aimed at transverse, transnational access to resources such as advanced laboratories, observatories, data collections, and computational centers, and of which Eurovolc ( www.eurovolc.eu ) represents a valuable example. Other successful sharing initiatives include the VOBP (Volcano Observatory Best Practices) workshop series aimed at sharing best practices for volcano observatories, and including sharing of resources to sustain the inclusion of observatories from developing countries (Pallister et al. 2019 ).
The talk at AGU 2020 focused on the expected major developments in the current decade 2020–2030. Identifying the many sectors of volcanology that may benefit from significant advance is beyond the scope. The aim there, and here with this short paper, was that of identifying some major elements that may contribute significantly to shape volcanology in the next years. Together with the contributions from many other colleagues in this volume, the objective is to present a picture of what volcano science may look like in 10 years from now. The perspective that we present here largely (but not exclusively) refers to examples from Europe, that we believe can be representative of developments at international scale.
Big science and volcano science
The key word describing major upcoming developments in volcanology is big science. Big science usually refers to large scientific endeavors involving big budgets, big staff, big machines, and big laboratories. Other communities have engaged in big science since long, with enormous impacts such as those brought by the Large Hadron Collider in particle physics, the Hubble telescope in astronomy and astrophysics, or the large-scale initiative represented by the Human Genome Project ( https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project ) in life sciences. ODP (Oceanic Drilling Program) activities carrying out exploration of the ocean floor are an example of large-scale projects in the Earth sciences, which have also largely benefited volcanology especially when the research involved volcanic ridges and arcs. One may wonder whether volcano science needs similar large-scale, international cooperative efforts. As a matter of fact, we are deeply convinced of the unique importance of science developed by individual or small groups of researchers. Examples of deep scientific innovation following from modest funding are countless, and, fortunately, science still flourishes on great ideas. It is a fact, however, that some extraordinary achievements strictly require similar extraordinary investments. The standard model of quantum mechanics constituting our current vision of the world would not be the same, without extreme technological implementations at a few large particle accelerators. Similarly, we would not have machines on Mars sending back pictures and data and possibly preparing a next human mission, without the huge investments that such an endeavor requires.
What about volcanoes? Of all the extremes that we have reached so far, none is as close to us yet as hidden and mysterious as real magma below volcanoes. We send probes to directly observe, sample, and analyze the surface of Mars at a distance of order 10 8 km, but have never done the same for magma at just 10 0 km below our feet. If curiosity and pure scientific interest are not enough, then it can be noticed that at least 800,000 people in the world live close enough to active volcanoes to directly suffer from a volcanic eruption (UNISDR 2015 ), and anticipating the occurrence of an eruption strictly requires understanding the nature of magma and its underground dynamics. If one would rank relevance on economic value, then it is useful to recall the immense heat associated with volcanic intrusions, of which the proportion converted into energy at geothermal power plants is nothing but a vanishing fraction (e.g., Friðleifsson and Elders 2005 ; Tester et al. 2006 ; Reinsch et al. 2017 ), as well as the potential of underground brines related to magmatic intrusions to be sources of strategic metals (Blundy et al. 2021 ). Summed up with renewable and clean characteristics of geothermal energy may make the search for real magma a highly remunerative effort in the near future.
In the talk at AGU 2020, the focus was on three themes that we expect are going to represent big developments in volcanology: directly reaching underground magma; collecting and processing volcanic data at unprecedented level; and developing a global volcano model. Ultimately, those themes can be reduced to measuring, analyzing, and modeling, making up the fundamental components of scientific investigation. Current and foreseen developments are described mostly with reference to ongoing or next initiatives in the European research landscape, of size and breath such as to likely represent big directions for developments also at the global scale.
Krafla Magma Testbed (KMT)
If one had to fix a date for the initiation of KMT, that would almost certainly be September 2014, when the first dedicated workshop took place within the Krafla caldera. That resulted from John Eichelberger’s vision and determination, as well as from the openness of Landsvirkjun, the Icelandic energy company owning the Krafla geothermal power plant and hosting the workshop. The story began, however, 5 years earlier, when the drill rig at the IDDP-1 well, aiming at supercritical fluids at 4-km depth, got stuck for days at only 2.1 km before it was realized that rhyolitic melt had been unexpectedly hit (Elders et al. 2014 ; Rooyakkers et al. 2021 ). Retrospectively, it was then realized that buried magma had been encountered a few other times at the same depth while drilling at various locations inside the caldera (Eichelberger 2019 ). Seismic imaging (Schuler et al. 2015 ) suggests that the rhyolitic melt may have a minimum volume around 0.5 km 3 . Flow testing at IDDP-1, before the well casing collapsed, produced an amazing 15–40 MW e (Axelsson et al. 2013 ), suggesting that two such wells would be enough to replace the entire Krafla power plant including a few tens conventional geothermal wells.
The serendipitous encounter with magma at Krafla demonstrates that (i) shallow magma bodies can escape even the most sophisticated geophysical prospections, a fact that is alarming for many high risk volcanoes; and (ii) drilling to magma can be safe, as any known accidental case, including those at Puna, Hawaii, and Menengai caldera, Kenya, did not lead to uncontrolled events (Eichelberger 2020 ; Rooyakkers et al. 2021 ).
Today, a large scientific consortium is engaging with country governments and industrial partners to define a long-term program named Krafla Magma Testbed, or KMT ( www.kmt.is ). KMT is foreseen to be the first underground magma observatory in the world, in the form of a series of long-standing wells for scientific and industrial exploration, directly opening inside and around the shallow magmatic body and equipped with advanced monitoring instrumentation (Fig. 1 ). Scientific fields opening to next level investigation include the origin of rhyolitic magmas in basaltic environments (and ultimately, the origin of continents), the thermo-fluid dynamics and petro-chemical evolution of magmas, the heat and mass exchange with the plumbing system, surrounding rocks and geothermal system, the rheology and thermo-mechanical properties from deep volcanic rock layers to magma and across the melt-rock interface, the relationships between surface records and deep magma dynamics and interpretation of volcanic unrests, and many others. Decades of speculation that still dominates the scientific debate would be overcome by direct evidence and measurements, and by real-scale experiments on the natural system. Similarly, innovative experimentation and measurements could lead to next-generation geothermal energy production systems exploiting extremely efficient, very high enthalpy near-magma fluids and heat directly released from the cooling margins of the magma body.
![good hypothesis volcano figure 1](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00445-022-01524-0/MediaObjects/445_2022_1524_Fig1_HTML.png)
The KMT concept. A series of wells are kept open inside and around the shallow magma intrusion at Krafla (2.1 km depth). Temperature- and corrosion-resistant instrumentation is placed inside the wells down to magma. The surface is heavily instrumented with an advanced multi-parametric monitoring network. Dedicated laboratories, offices, and a visitor center complement the infrastructure. Background picture: courtesy of GEORG (Geothermal Research Cluster of Iceland)
KMT is, obviously, an endeavor that cannot be faced by a restricted group or a single country. It requires instead a large, coordinated effort involving many diverse expertise and capacities from scientific to industrial, and disciplines embracing from thermo-fluid dynamics and material science to geology, geochemistry, and geophysics. The challenges are such as to require coordinated investments of order 10 8 dollars (see www.kmt.is ), not little money but still much less than the costs of other large infrastructures mentioned above. Currently (October 2021), the Icelandic government is welcoming partners and dedicating resources; a KMT/ICDP project has been recently approved; national and international projects raised in support of KMT are saturating the costs for the KMT preparatory phase 0, and phase 1 involving the first scientific well reaching to magma is getting closer.
Global Volcano Simulator (GVS)
The atmospheric scientists have been developing for decades general circulation models and a global simulation approach to atmospheric dynamics that they employ daily to produce weather forecasts. While the physics governing volcanic processes is of comparable complexity (e.g., Sparks 2003 ; Segall 2019 ; Papale 2021 ), a large part of the volcanic system is not directly observed (see the KMT description above). That makes a huge difference in terms of quality and accuracy, as atmospheric model predictions can be updated in real time with data coming from below (ground-based), from inside (weather balloons and rockets, radars) and from above (satellites). Similar capacities in volcano science exist for the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ashes (e.g., Stohl et al. 2011 ; Tanaka and Iguchi 2019 ; Pardini et al. 2020 ), and for other sufficiently slow surface phenomena, such as lava flows (e.g., Wright et al. 2008 ; Vicari et al. 2011 ; Bonny and Wright 2017 ). For the complex dynamics of volcanic unrest and escalation to eruption or return to quiet conditions, which are of utmost relevance for volcano early warning systems and implementation of emergency plans, we are limited to indirect observations through multi-parametric monitoring networks. Those networks provide a rich basis over which the deep volcano dynamics are inferred and the short-term evolutions are forecasted. Still, such forecasts suffer from the lack of a global reference model for their interpretation, often resulting in discordant inferences and projections by different groups of experts.
A reference Global Volcano Simulator would allow many different observations to be placed within a unique, consistent physical framework and integrated holistic dynamic modeling approach. Such a framework should allow a physical representation of the coupled processes and dynamics in multiple domains from the volcanic plumbing system to the surface, including the surrounding rocks and geothermal circulation systems through which signals of deep dynamics are transported to our monitoring networks. Together with the KMT initiative described above and providing ground-truth constraints as well as a unique chance for validation tests, such a global approach to the underground (and surface) volcano dynamics would project volcanology fully into the third millennium, bringing it closer to other scientific fields for which the quantitative revolution started much in advance. The large destination Earth initiative by the European Commission ( https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/destination-earth ) aims at developing a high precision digital model of the Earth to monitor and simulate both natural and man-made phenomena and processes. The initiative provides a long-term perspective which develops largely through the construction of digital twins (Fig. 2 ), that is, digital replicas of natural (physical, biological) or man-made systems. Among the high priority digital twins that are foreseen by the Commission, the one on weather-induced and geophysical extremes ( https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/workshops-reports-elements-digital-twins-weather-induced-and-geophysical-extremes-and-climate ) is expected to provide the conditions for bringing to a next level some of the recent developments in modeling the complex dynamics of volcanic systems and improving the performance of parallel computing in solid Earth (see also the European Centre of Excellence ChEESE: https://cheese-coe.eu ). As a matter of fact, the digital twin concept applied to volcanoes coincides largely with the GVS described here, showing that the times can be mature for such an ambitious undertaking.
![good hypothesis volcano figure 2](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00445-022-01524-0/MediaObjects/445_2022_1524_Fig2_HTML.png)
Possible scheme for a digital twin of a volcanic system. Models and data concur to scenarios and forecasts. Models are continuously tested and refined, e.g., by adding more or better microphysics. Both data and models are accompanied by quality assessments and certification. Third parties access data and models, as well as visualization tools. While the scheme is general, the cited resources refer to the European landscape
- Big volcano data
Direct observations and global modeling described above are expected to impact deeply volcano science. The fundamental source of information on volcanic processes and dynamics from most volcanoes worldwide will continue to be the multi-parametric remote and on-site instrumental networks collecting data before, during, and after volcanic eruptions. With the development of the digital age, big data and related technologies such as Machine Learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have exploded in virtually any aspect of science (e.g., Chen et al. 2012 ; Wamba et al. 2015 ; Gorelick et al. 2017 ). AI algorithms can be trained to reproduce some of our capabilities, such as driving a car or writing a meaningful text. What looks more relevant in volcano science, however, is that ML and AI algorithms can be employed to find, hidden within huge sequences of data, meaningful patterns that trained teams of humans may miss in months or years of work. ML is employed already in a variety of research applications related to volcanoes, including automatic classification of seismicity (Masotti et al. 2006 ; Malfante et al. 2018 ; Bueno et al. 2020 ), analysis of infrasound signals (Witsil and Johnson 2020 ), detection from satellite images of eruptions (Corradino et al. 2020 ) or anomalous deformation areas (Anantrasirichai et al. 2018 , 2019 ), establishment of source regions from tephra analysis (Bolton et al. 2020 ; Pignatelli and Piochi 2021 ), identification of changes in eruption behavior (Hajian et al. 2019 ; Watson 2020 ), and volcano early warning analysis (Parra et al. 2017 ).
The fundamental element of ML and AI is algorithm training, which requires huge amounts of data before the trained algorithms can be used to mine other datasets. Modern multi-parametric networks at highly monitored volcanoes, constellations of satellites, etc. produce continuous streams of space–time data daily. Satellite data are organized and accessible through space agencies, with increasing levels of accessibility being provided through large-scale initiatives, such as GEO’s Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories ( https://geo-gsnl.org/ ). However, a similar level of organization is still missing for ground-based data collected at volcanoes worldwide. Relevant attempts to provide free, organized access to ground-based volcano data are ongoing (e.g., Newhall et al. 2017 ; Costa et al. 2019 ; in Japan: Ueda et al. 2019 ; in Europe: Bailo and Sbarra 2017 ; etc.), while large funding agencies such as the European Union ( https://ec.europa.eu/info/research-and-innovation/strategy/strategy-2020-2024/our-digital-future/open-science_en ; https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/turning_fair_into_reality_0.pdf ) increasingly require strict adherence to the principles of open science and FAIR data. Definitely, of all the projections one may make for volcano science in the next decade, the one with the highest likelihood of revealing correct is the burst of big volcano data, or otherwise, volcano science would find itself lagging behind other communities who fully profit of big developments that will largely shape research and support scientific advance in the coming years and decades.
Concluding remarks
The volcanological community has been capable of benefiting from substantial infrastructural developments, for example in relation to satellite missions. Even in such cases, however, volcanologists have taken advantage from missions dedicated to other objectives, such as those related to weather forecasts, climate change, or land evolution. Still, the benefits from a “big science” approach in volcanology appear substantial in terms of mitigated risks and increased security on one side, and potential for efficient, clean, and renewable energy on the other side. In comparison, order of magnitude larger funds dedicated to space exploration, while expanding greatly our fundamental understanding of the Universe, does not seem to bring comparable practical benefits, at least over the short-medium time scale.
Decades of volcano science clearly show that major volcanic eruptions in terms of their size or impacts not only have been big drivers for scientific advance, they also have focused substantial attention by the governments, the media, and the public. However, the momentum gets easily lost, and after an initial promising phase of increased funding opportunities, often volcanoes quickly slip backwards in the priority list. As a volcanological community, we may need to improve our capability to stay on the scene, e.g., by transposing our scientific endeavors into effective narratives which tell of the exciting travel towards unexplored frontiers of our planet Earth, at the same time increasing security and contributing to sustainability and preservation of the delicate equilibria of the planet.
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Acknowledgements
A perspective paper is obviously the result of many years of interactions with colleagues having similar or different, sometimes even diverging, views on what our science misses mostly or mostly benefits from. To all of these colleagues, we are grateful, as literally each of them had much to teach us. We are also grateful to Mike Poland and Steve Sparks who reviewed the manuscript and improved it through many insightful comments and suggestions. One of us (DG) benefited from a grant by EPOS-IT.
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Papale, P., Garg, D. Big volcano science: needs and perspectives. Bull Volcanol 84 , 20 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01524-0
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Scientists aim to broaden knowledge of volcanoes
By erin philipson.
Every year at least 50 volcanic eruptions affect more than 10% of the world’s population. Some eruptions, like Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and Laki in 1783, were so powerful that they impacted the climate of the entire planet.
![good hypothesis volcano Arenal Volcano](https://news.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/styles/breakout/public/2020-10/1012_nasa.jpg?itok=rdop4zM2)
Arenal Volcano in Costa Rica.
A research team from the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences has received a $1.4 million grant from NASA to lead a study of how volcanic ash from past eruptions affected the Earth, and the potential impact of future eruptions. The project involves collaborators from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, among other institutions.
Volcanoes are the main locations for energy and mass exchange between the interior of the Earth and the atmosphere, and thus play a critical role in the climate and habitability of the planet. Volcanic ash can impact air quality, disrupt aviation and change ocean biogeochemistry, among other effects. The research team will study these impacts by integrating volcanology, remote sensing and atmospheric sciences to understand the relationship between volcano pre-eruptive behavior, geochemical signatures, and ash composition.
“The study will focus on micro- and nano-fraction volcanic ash components that are generally not considered traditional volcanology studies,” said Esteban Gazel , associate professor of earth and atmospheric sciences. “This is critical as these materials can travel miles away from the primary volcanic hazard source and trigger the most substantial global impact.”
Over the past decade, volcanic ash emissions have not been well characterized and have not been included in Earth system models. The research team is combining remote sensing with volcanic eruption measurements to address an important and under-studied question: What is the role of volcanic ash in current and future climate and biogeochemistry?
“For the first time, we will create a database of satellite observations of volcanic ash from the 250 largest volcanic eruptions between the years 1978 and the present,” said Matthew Pritchard , professor of earth and atmospheric sciences. “We will then use the database, along with in-situ chemistry observations, as input to Earth system models to understand the impact of the ash on temperature, precipitation and feedbacks with life in the ocean and on land.”
Not only will the team characterize past emissions, but they will look for predictive capabilities – first by identifying relationships between pre-eruptive gas, thermal emissions, ground displacement, and the composition of eruptive material. Then they will use past records of emissions from volcanic eruptions to assess the importance of future eruption scenarios that can impact the Earth.
The findings of this project aim to improve the understanding of volcanic aerosols and to what extent background eruptions are modifying aerosol distributions, weather, climate and biogeochemistry. The study also aims to test whether the characteristics of pre-eruptive unrest are related to eventual erupted material and evaluate the potential impacts of large eruptions in the future.
“Volcanoes are one of the most powerful forces of nature and have long lived in human psychology as an incredible force – think of Atlantis or the goddess Pele,” said Natalie Mahowald , the Irving Porter Church Professor of Engineering. “With this project we will link volcanology, remote sensing and climate science to bring our understanding of volcanoes into the 21st century to see how volcanoes can change climate.”
Erin Philipson is a communications specialist for the College of Engineering.
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Introduction: (initial observation).
Volcano is an opening in the earth’s crust through which molten lava, ash, and gases are ejected. Some volcanoes are on dry land and some others are under water in deep oceans. Some islands are entirely formed by volcanic material. Volcanoes are constantly changing the landscape on the earth.
As the world’s population grows, more and more people are living in potentially dangerous volcanic areas. Volcanic eruptions continue–as they have throughout history–posing ever-greater threats to life and property.
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Inside the earth, hot magma and gasses look for weak spots to push through. Magma and gasses will push up through not only the main conduit, but also through any cracks (vents) it can find. Once magma (molten rock) leaves the inner earth and finds its way to land, then we call it lava.
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What do you want to find out? Write a statement that describes what you want to do. Use your observations and questions to write the statement.
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Also find out what ratio of vinegar/ baking soda produces the highest amount of gas for your volcano experiment.
Identify Variables:
When you think you know what variables may be involved, think about ways to change one at a time. If you change more than one at a time, you will not know what variable is causing your observation. Sometimes variables are linked and work together to cause something. At first, try to choose variables that you think act independently of each other.
We use the reaction of vinegar and baking soda to produce carbonic gas and use it to create a display similar to a real volcanic eruption.
The independent variable (also known as manipulated variable) is the ratio of vinegar to baking soda.
The dependent variable (also known as responding variable) is the amount of gas produced by the reaction.
Control variable is the ambient temperature (room temperature).
Hypothesis:
Based on your gathered information, make an educated guess about what types of things affect the system you are working with. Identifying variables is necessary before you can make a hypothesis.
Baking soda and Vinegar can produce enough gas to simulate a volcanic eruption. This is a sample hypothesis for the ratio of the vinegar to baking soda.
The highest amount of gas will be produced when equal amounts of baking soda and vinegar are used
Experiment Design:
Design an experiment to test each hypothesis or construct a model to display how a volcano is erupted when the pressure of gases push out molten lava.
Experiment 1:
Make a Volcano model that can erupt. Eruption can be simulated by a chemical reaction between vinegar and baking soda. Model can be constructed using paper, aluminum foils and clay.
We mix baking soda and vinegar in a plastic bottle in different ways and see which combination and rates of mixture will create the best model for a volcanic eruption.
When we find the best setup and combination, we cover the bottle by papers, aluminum foil, clay and other material to make it look like real volcano. So in the center of our volcano will be a bottle with chemicals that create the eruption.
In our first experiment we use a small cup of vinegar and start adding baking soda to that. Initially baking soda will release gas as soon as it gets to the vinegar. But if we continue, at some point there will be no gas any more. In this way we record the amount of baking soda and vinegar that create gas with each other.
In the second experiment we check to see which should be at the bottom to create a better and faster reaction, baking soda or vinegar.
In the third experiment we add some liquid detergent and some red food coloring to vinegar before reaction with baking soda. Liquid detergent may help the foams last longer and food coloring gives a better look to the erupting volcano. You may also add some flour to the baking soda that you are using to create a more viscose lava.
When the chemical composition is experimented successfully, we mount the bottle on the center of a card board and cover it with newspaper and aluminum foil to look like a real volcano.
Baking soda and vinegar are frequently used for volcano projects simply because they are easily accessible and less dangerous. Personally I prefer other methods that create better display and of course have more risk. In one example you fill up your volcanic cone with Ammonium bichromate and light it up at the display. Ammonium bichromate is a flammable solid and burns very similar to a volcano. It has a nice display and creates a lot of smoke. Use heavy aluminum foil to cover your card board and construct your cone and do your display in an open area. If you want to do this, make your volcano as small as possible (about 2″ high).
The other method that I like is using a solid acid instead of vinegar. Citric acid for example, specially if you get it in powder form can be a good choice. You can mix it dry with baking soda, paint powder such as Iron oxide (red) and detergent powder. So when you are ready to do your demonstration you just add some water and reaction starts.
Experiment 2:
Compare the number of volcanic eruptions in the past seven years. Draw a graph to show how has the number of annual eruptions changed in the past seven years.
Introduction:
When a volcano is restless, scientists collect and record different data about the volcano. Such data include the earthquakes, ground deformation, and sulfur dioxide gas around each specific volcano. By comparing data from several sources, scientists are able to get a more complete picture of what is happening under the ground than they would by analyzing only one data type. Collected data about volcanic activities can be found on the Internet and Geological publications.
For a list of current volcanic activities search the Internet or visit http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/current_volcs/current.html . A copy of this data ia also available here . You can compile the data provided in this website to determine specific regional volcano information and enter them in a table. You can then use such table to draw a graph. (You may also try http://www.swvrc.org/research.htm for volcano data)
Compile the data in the current volcanic activities table and determine how many volcanic eruptions has happened in each of the last seven years. Record your data in the following table. You have choice to select world wide volcanoes or just the volcanoes in one continent.
1995 | 45 |
1996 | |
1997 | |
1998 | |
1999 | |
2000 | |
2001 |
Use the above table to make a bar chart.
Experiment 3:
In this experiment you will try to find out what ratio of vinegar and baking soda will produce the most amount of gas.
- Get a small measuring spoon or measuring cup. The cap of a soda bottle may be used as a measuring cup.
- Get 9 Styrofoam cups and label them as vinegar. Also number them from 1 to 9. Add one spoon of vinegar in the cup number 1. Add two spoons of vinegar in the cup number 2. Add three spoons of vinegar in the cup number 3. Continue until you add 9 spoons of vinegar to the cup number 9.
- Get 9 empty soda bottles. Label them from 1 to 9. Add 9 spoons of baking soda in the soda bottle number 1. Add 8 spoons of baking soda in the soda bottle number 2. Add 7 spoons of baking soda in the soda bottle number 3. Continue until you add 1 spoon of baking soda in the soda bottle number 9.
- Transfer the vinegar from the cup number 1 to a balloon and then place the balloon over the soda bottle number 1. Heavy vinegar will hold the balloon hanging and no vinegar will enter the bottle at this time. Wrap a cotton string on the bottle neck to hold the balloon securely. Make a knot. No gas must be able to leak from the bottle.
- Repeat this with all cups and all soda bottles that have the same number.
- Carefully start to lift the balloons one at a time so the vinegar in the balloon will enter the bottle and produce gas. Produced gases will inflate the balloons. Measure the circumferences of all balloons and record them in your results table.
- Your results table may look like this:
1 Unit | 9 Unit | |||
2 Unit | 8 Unit | |||
3 Unit | 7 Unit | |||
4 Unit | 6 Unit | |||
5 Unit | 5 Unit | |||
6 Unit | 4 Unit | |||
7 Unit | 3 Unit | |||
8 Unit | 2 Unit | |||
9 Unit | 1 Unit |
The “Unit” may be measuring spoon; however, if you have access to a gram scale, it is best if you use one gram as your unit. In this way 4 Unit vinegar will really be 4 grams of vinegar.
![good hypothesis volcano good hypothesis volcano](https://www.scienceprojects.org/wp-content/uploads/PX001/exp03a.jpg)
To calculate the radius of a spherical balloon divide the circumference of the balloon by 6.28.
The volume of the balloon is =4/3¶r3
To calculate the volume of the balloon multiply 4/3 x 3.14 x radius x radius x radius. Write the volume of the balloon for each ratio in the gas volume column.
![good hypothesis volcano good hypothesis volcano](https://www.scienceprojects.org/wp-content/uploads/PX001/exp03b.jpg)
Materials and Equipment:
- Plastic bottle (Wide mouth, 5 to 9 inches tall)
- Baking soda
- Liquid detergent
- Food coloring (red)
- Aluminum foil
- Masking tape
Results of Experiment (Observation):
Experiments showed that the reaction between baking soda and vinegar creates some gas, but it is not fast enough to create a violent reaction and simulate a real volcanic reaction. We can stir or shake the mixture to create more gas, but it is not very realistic to shake a volcano to cause eruption.
To speed up the reaction we must fill up the plastic bottle with baking soda while leaving an empty hole in the center of that for adding vinegar. This hole should be as wide as possible so your bottle will hold more vinegar than baking soda. To do this you need to make paste of baking soda. Take one spoon liquid detergent, two spoons water, a few drops of food coloring and start adding baking soda slowly while mixing. Continue adding baking soda until you get a sticky paste. If your bottle is very small and your volcano is small too, this should be enough. For larger bottles you may need to repeat this part to make more paste. Apply a thin layer of this paste to the inner sides of your bottle (about 1/4″ tick).
![good hypothesis volcano good hypothesis volcano](https://www.scienceprojects.org/wp-content/uploads/PX001/px001a.jpg)
The reason that we add liquid detergent is that bobbles are unstable and disappear very fast. Liquid detergent will make bubbles last for a few seconds. Do this a few times and add vinegar to see how much foam comes out. After a few experiments you will be ready for your final product. When your bottle is ready for final volcano, take a card board and using a masking tape secure the bottle in the center of the card board. Before you start building your volcanic mountain around the bottle, you may also want to use some glue or masking tape around the neck of the bottle. This will prevent the foam from going inside your mountain.
![good hypothesis volcano good hypothesis volcano](https://www.scienceprojects.org/wp-content/uploads/PX001/PX001b.jpg)
You can almost use anything that can look like a mountain to cover your bottle. I used some packing paper and cut a cross on the center of that to make it easier to be attached to the neck of the bottle.
![good hypothesis volcano good hypothesis volcano](https://www.scienceprojects.org/wp-content/uploads/PX001/PX001f.jpg)
Cover the bottle with your mountain material such as paper or aluminum foil and paint it. Since my paper was not large enough, I has to use some extra magazine paper to give more body to the mountain.
Before painting, cover the the bottle with something to make sure that paint will not enter the bottle. I used spray paint, but you can use any latex paint as well. (Don’t add water).
![good hypothesis volcano good hypothesis volcano](https://www.scienceprojects.org/wp-content/uploads/PX001/PX001h.jpg)
I painted my volcano in the backyard, spray paints release harmful fumes and it’s better not to use them inside a building. While the paint was still wet, I also spread some sand to make it more natural. Paint will act like a glue and holds sand in place.
When your volcano is ready and it is your turn to display, fill up a small bottle or a test tube with vinegar and pour it in to your volcano. The eruption will start in a few seconds and lasts for a few minutes.
Remember you can do it only once and when the volcano erupts, it gets wet and you can not repeat your display unless you build everything from the beginning.
![good hypothesis volcano](https://www.scienceprojects.org/wp-content/uploads/PX001/PX001l.jpg)
Final display that will last only a few seconds may look like this. As you notice I did not use food coloring and my lava is white. Also I used black color to paint the mountain that is not the best choice. If you have enough time for your project, you may use multiple colors and food coloring to get a better display.
![good hypothesis volcano good hypothesis volcano](https://www.scienceprojects.org/wp-content/uploads/PX001/PX001m.jpg)
Number of worldwide eruptions from 1989 to April 4, 2004
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Determining where the most hazardous volcanoes are located in the world is a good project hypothesis. First, students would need to determine the main hazards of a volcano and consider factors such as human life, plant and animal life, air quality and damage to property. Data would need to be collected on volcanoes in different parts of the ...
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After creating a volcano science project, it's important to write a clear presentation. This should include an introduction, hypothesis, materials list, procedure description, results, and conclusion. ... do not forget to relate how that information can be used in the real world. This would also be a good spot to place recommendations if there ...
To get started on your own volcano-based science project, you will want to first have an understanding of how volcanoes form. This is related to tectonic plates. The entire outer shell of the Earth, known as the lithosphere, is made up of tectonic plates that are constantly moving. There are seven or eight large tectonic plates and many more ...
Week 3: Sample Week A Volcano Hypothesis and Analyses. Last week you did PBL Steps 1-6. This reading provides sample responses that someone could have made after reading the Volcano Scenario and applying the ESS and PBL approaches. In Week 2 you were to read and analyze the Volcano Scenario (PBL Step 1), which contains an event and situation ...
A new framework to examine seismic triggering of volcanoes. We have identified five common volcanic types as well as eight different seismic scenarios, yielding a total of 5 × 8 = 40 possible ...
A new framework to examine seismic triggering of volcanoes. We have identi fied five common volcanic types as well as eight different seismic scenarios, yielding a total of 5 × 8 40 possible ...
A volcano is essentially an opening or a vent through which this magma and the dissolved gases it contains are discharged. Although there are several factors triggering a volcanic eruption, three ...
Mix together half a cup of baking soda and half a cup of water. Pour the mix into the 2-liter bottle as quickly as you can and stand back! Using only 10 grams of baking soda, most volcanoes never made it out of the bottle. K.O. Myers/Particulatemedia.com. Fifty grams of baking soda produced short jets of foam K.O. Myers/Particulatemedia.com.
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A volcano constitutes a vent, a pipe, a crater, and a cone.. The vent is an opening at the Earth's surface.. The pipe is a passageway in the volcano in which the magma rises through to the surface during an eruption.. The crater is a bowl-shaped depression at the top of the volcano where volcanic materials like, ash, lava, and other pyroclastic materials are released.
Volcano monitoring is essential to determine the status of volcanic systems and identify the potential signs of an impending eruption. The number of volcanoes for which data are available has ...
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Volcanoes are the main locations for energy and mass exchange between the interior of the Earth and the atmosphere, and thus play a critical role in the climate and habitability of the planet. Volcanic ash can impact air quality, disrupt aviation and change ocean biogeochemistry, among other effects. The research team will study these impacts ...
Volcano is an opening in the earth's crust through which molten lava, ash, and gases are ejected. ... scientific method, variables, hypothesis, graph, abstract and all other general basics that you need to know. ... Citric acid for example, specially if you get it in powder form can be a good choice. You can mix it dry with baking soda, paint ...
A hypothesis is a tentative, testable answer to a scientific question. Once a scientist has a scientific question she is interested in, the scientist reads up to find out what is already known on the topic. Then she uses that information to form a tentative answer to her scientific question. Sometimes people refer to the tentative answer as "an ...
This article was originally published with the title " Volcanoes, their Causes—Igueous Theory " in Scientific American Magazine Vol. 8 No. 12 (December 1852), p. 93 doi:10.1038 ...
More Science and technology. 1. Volcano! That little word brings so much to our minds — streams of lava and clouds of ash, rumbling mountains, the might of a planet's fiery underbelly, and our own nervous anticipation, curiosity and fear.In fact, if it seems like more and more people have volcanoes on the brain, there's a good reason.
The researchers saw that carbon dioxide levels rose tenfold over the two weeks before the volcano erupted explosively on 15 March 1. The findings allowed volcanologists to build a conceptual model ...
Gillian - Well, most volcanoes in the world occur along the edges of tectonic plates. So, most people are probably familiar with the concept that the Earth's surface is broken into lots of plates like the shell of a tortoise, and along their edges where they move past one another, there are huge cracks going right through the lithosphere layer ...
Make the Chemical Volcano. Start by making the cone of your baking soda volcano by mixing 6 cups flour, 2 cups salt, 4 tablespoons cooking oil, and 2 cups of water. The resulting mixture should be smooth and firm (add more water if needed). Stand the soda bottle in the baking pan and mold the dough around it to form a volcano shape.
warm water. liquid dishwashing detergent. red or orange food coloring. baking soda. vinegar. Pour warm water into the volcano until it is 1/2 to 3/4 of the way full. Add several drops of food coloring. Add a squirt of detergent. This helps the 'lava' foam up and flow.
Materials: 10 ml of dish soap 100 ml of warm water 400 ml of white vinegar Food coloring Baking soda slurry (fill a cup about ½ with baking soda, then fill the rest of the way with water) Empty 2 liter soda bottle Instructions: NOTE: This should be done outside due to the mess. Combine the vinegar, water, dish soap and 2 drops of food coloring into the empty soda bottle. Use a spoon to mix ...
by the eruption of the Santorini/Thera volcano, 120 km north of Crete, around 1,600 BCE (Downey & Tarling, 1984). Moreover, efforts to trace legendary lost civilizations h ave been encouraged by ...
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